HKTDC tips zero growth for Hong Kong exports in 2015

HONG KONG – Uncertainties in the global economic environment have affected exporter confidence in Hong Kong, according to the latest Export Index released today by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. For the third quarter of 2015, the Export Index plunged to 37.1, down from 46.8 in the previous quarter, its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2012.

The HKTDC has revised its 2015 export growth forecast from three per cent to zero.

The HKTDC’s  Director of Research, Nicholas Kwan, said that worse-than-expected global economic performance and lingering concerns about an economic downturn have inevitably put Hong Kong exports under pressure.

“The Greek debt crisis continues to drag down the recovery of the EU,” he said. “While the Chinese mainland has introduced stimulus measures, economic growth there continues to moderate.”

Kwan said that while US economic growth will remain stable, the imminent interest rate hike will likely increase volatility in capital flows and exchange rates in emerging markets. “The global economy now faces several potential risks and the trading environment for the rest of the year will be challenging,” he said.

HKTDC Principal Economist (Global Research), Daniel Poon, said that the third quarter Export Index dropped 9.7 points to stand at 37.1. Indices fell for all sectors except jewellery, with the toy industry suffering the biggest slide from 52.5 to 35.6. The export index for the machinery industry was 40.7, while for other industries including electronics, clothing, jewellery and timepieces, the index fell below 40.

Negative sentiment dominated the key markets, with indices for the US, the EU, Japan and the Chinese mainland all moving lower. The index for the EU was the lowest at 42.8. Poon said that the Trade Value Index also fell to 42.6.

Only the timepiece industry maintained its value index above the 50 mark (51.4), indicating that Hong Kong timepiece traders generally believe that prices will stay at present levels, though room for further increases was limited.

In addition, the Purchasing Index in the third quarter was 38.2, suggesting that purchasing sentiment had trended lower. www.hktdc.org (ATI)