China, US to lead future air traffic growth, says IATA

GENEVA - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its first 20-year passenger growth forecast, projecting that passenger numbers will reach 7.3 billion by 2034. That represents 4.1% average annual growth in demand for air connectivity that will result in more than a doubling of the 3.3 billion passengers expected to travel this year.

Among highlights of the report is an expectation that China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest passenger market (defined by traffic to, from and within) by 2030. Both markets, however, are expected to remain the largest by a wide margin.

In 2034 flights to, from and within China will account for some 1.3 billion passengers, 856 million more than 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. Traffic to, from and within the US is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.2% that will see 1.2 billion passengers by 2034 (559 million more than 2014).
 
The report, the first from the new IATA Passenger Forecasting service, analyses passenger flows across 4,000 country pairs for the next 20 years, forecasting passenger numbers by way of three key demand drivers - living standards, population and demographics, and price and availability. www.iata.org (ATI).