China trade surplus in 2013 to be highest since 2008?

~~BEIJING - China’s November exports came in much higher than expected, gaining 12.7% y/y versus October’s 5.6%, due to better demand from the developed economies. Shipments to the US and EU rose by 17.7% and 18.4% respectively, from 8.1% and 12.7% in the previous month. But imports unexpectedly slowed to 5.3% y/y in November, pointing to  weak domestic demand.

ANZ Bank says it found few signs of restocking activities in the onshore market, suggesting that producers see the upside of industrial goods as limited over the foreseeable future. While not overly optimistic, ANZ says the data in January-November suggests that China could achieve its 8% trade growth target for the whole year.
“As China’s trade surplus remained above US$30 billion for the second consecutive month, the RMB is still under pressure to appreciate due to massive capital inflows taking advantage of higher onshore interest rates,” ANZ says. “China’s trade surplus is likely to exceed US$240 billion this year, the highest since 2008, which is contrary to the fact that RMB appreciation has significantly eroded trade competitiveness.
“The PBoC’s continued liquidity tightness will only add pressure on the RMB exchange rate. That is, the elevated onshore interest rates will only attract more money inflows, resulting in even stronger expectations of an RMB appreciation,” ANZ says. “In our view, China should encourage private capital outflows to avoid this policy dilemma.” www.live.anz.com (ATI).