ANZ sees 20% fall in ‘normal’ GDP rates in coming months

March 20, 2020

SINGAPORE - Due to the severity of measures being taken to stop the spread of COVID-19 in the US and euro area, ANZ Bank is now estimating that GDP will probably run at 20% below normal for the next couple of months.

"That implies a very sharp recession, the duration of which will be determined by how long it takes to get the spread of the coronavirus under control," ANZ says..

"We now estimate US GDP to drop by 3.7% in 2020 and the euro area by 4.0% as the COVID-19 control measures intensify, and rapidly tightening financial conditions.

"In Japan, even though their containment strategy is less stringent, we expect a 3% drop. These revisions result in our world GDP forecast for 2020 falling to 0.5% from 1.9%" (ATI)