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Peru Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

February 22, 2017
We have revised our growth projection downwards, from 4.1% to 3.5%. The delay in infrastructure construction, one of the main risk factors considered in the report that we published last quarter, materialised in early 2017.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. February 2017

February 21, 2017
The Infonavit should be allowed not to report information on its affiliates to the credit bureau. Expectations about the policies of the new US administration continue to influence markets. Adjustments to CNBV’s banking rulebook. Revisions to the Banking Performance Assessment of the SHCP

DiGiX: The Digitization Index

February 21, 2017
The Digitization Index (DiGiX) assesses the factors, agents’ behavior and institutions that enable a country to fully leverage Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) for increased competitiveness and well-being. It is a composite index that summarizes relevant indicators on 100 countries’ digital performance.

USA and China: the new rules of the game

February 20, 2017
Tensions between the USA and China have been rising since Donald Trump was elected president in November of last year. During his election campaign, Trump accused China of manipulating its exchange rate, threatening to introduce trade tariffs of 45% on imports from Asian industrial power.

U.S. | Weekly Podcast: Oil Price Outlook and Home Sales

February 18, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of February 20, 2017. Special topic: oil price outlook

Colombia Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

February 18, 2017
The global economy is gradually accelerating on the back of United States growth. Colombia GDP growth will rise from 1.9% in 2016 to 2.4% and 3.3% in 2017 and 2018. Investment will be decisive for reaching theses figures. The progressive reduction of inflation will allow BanRep to slash rates during 2017 and 2018.

Global | More growth, but with old and new risks across regions

February 18, 2017
Global growth strengthened in 2H16 (+0.9% QoQ) and it could be gathering pace in 1Q17 (+1.0% QoQ), as our GAIN-model suggests, driven mostly by industrial activity and improving global trade. New quarterly projections remain broadly unchanged, with differences across regions, while risks are tilted to the downside and are mostly of a political nature.

Infographic "Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2017"

February 18, 2017
South America will recover in 2017 after 4 years of slowdown, while Mexico is on the receiving end of uncertainty about US economic policies. The different response to the uncertainty about US policies marks the divergence in the dynamics of growth in the two Latin American areas. South America will grow 1% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.

Spain Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

February 17, 2017
The Spanish economy continues to show signs of strong recovery, although less intense than in previous years. Weaker tailwinds explain the slowdown: fiscal policy will shift from expansionary to neutral and the inflation increase in the EMU can lead to an inflexion point in monetary policy. The adoption of new reforms is necessary due to the vulnerability of the economy

Presentation "Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2017"

February 17, 2017
South America will grow 1% in 2017 and leave 4 years of deceleration behind. Mexico is on the receiving end of uncertainty about US economic policies. Growth falls to 1% in 2017.

Chile Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

February 16, 2017
Growth projection for 2017 has been corrected to 1.6% in view of the weakness observed at the beginning of the year. The exchange rate is close to intervention level. Limited inflationary pressures are confirmed, which creates room for cuts in the monetary policy rate to 2.5%. The medium-term fiscal situation is becoming more complex and will require an adjustment.

China Economic Outlook: First Quarter of 2017

February 15, 2017
Economic activities continued to gain traction through Q4, enabling the authorities to meet their full-year target in 2016. The authorities recently fine-tuned their policy stance and put more emphasis on the stability of exchange rate. Downside risks: uncertainties from Trump’s policies ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking .

The Network View: applications to international trade and bank exposures

February 14, 2017
Systems of interconnected elements are increasingly important in economic applications. This paper elaborates on some ideas of network analysis and its application to the study of systems of economic interest. It focuses on the Identification of influential and vulnerable elements, from both a global and a local perspective.