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Global | The recovery shows signs of stabilisation

June 16, 2017
Global GDP growth continues to improve in Q2 (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) but with signs of stabilization. Confidence data remain very strong, but are levelling off and the upward trend in exports and industrial output has moderated at the beginning of Q2. Moreover, the latest data suggest that positive signs are shifting from the US and China to Europe and other emerging economies

Turkey | The CBRT Keeps the Hawkish Tone

June 15, 2017
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the entire set of its interest rate corridor unchanged. The Bank also preserved the hawkish tone by over looking the expected disinflationary impacts of the fall in energy prices and partial correction in food prices. We expect the Bank to keep the average funding rate close to 12% until the next monetary policy meeting in July.

FOMC June 13-14 Meeting: Wonder Woman Brings Hope to Markets

June 15, 2017
In a widely anticipated move, for a third consecutive quarter, the FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate 25bp to 1.25%, as the labor market continued to tighten in the Committee’s eyes despite some slowing job gains over the past months

China | Economic moderation continues

June 14, 2017
After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain

June 14, 2017
Budget balances and public debt in Spain showed clear signs of unsustainability between 2009 and 2011. Despite the fiscal consolidation implemented since then, the increase in public debt has also considerable costs in terms of GDP, employment and private investment.

The use of ICT in European households: a comparative study

June 14, 2017
The use of ICT at home has spread extensively throughout Europe, albeit with differing intensity in each country. Based on Eurostat data, this observatory outlines the importance of computer use, of the internet and its ends during the recent recession, comparing European countries.

CMU Mid-Term Review Action Plan

June 13, 2017
On June 8 the European Commission published the Mid Term Review (MTR) Action Plan for a Capital Markets Union. This MTR takes stock of what has already been done and analyses future challenges, as the Brexit. It includes a set of new priorities and specific actions to achieve in order to complete the CMU in 2019.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. June 2017

June 13, 2017
The value generated by construction companies rose 3.8% in the first quarter. Companies moderate their use of financing due to their perception of less favourable terms in its cost. New tool for analysing personal lending conditions

Mexico | The peso still has room for further appreciation

June 13, 2017
The past few months have seen very high volatility in Mexico’s financial variables, and particularly in the exchange rate. Whereas from 8 November when Donald Trump was elected president of the US to the end of January the peso depreciated more than any other currency in the world, from then until now it has gained more than any other currency

The Future of Employment

June 12, 2017
The technological and digital transformation under way, known as the fourth industrial revolution, has given rise to intense debate about its effects on employment. Opinions are divided.

Turkey: Another Positive Growth Surprise

June 12, 2017
1Q17 GDP surprised positively by growing 5% YoY compared to the market (3.4%) and our expectations (3.2%). Net exports and public spending were the main drivers of growth while the positive surprise factor was the solid private consumption growth. The risks on our 3% whole year growth forecast are clearly on the upside.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: inflation, retail sales and the upcoming FOMC meeting

June 10, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of June 12, 2017. Special topic: upcoming FOMC meeting

Mexico | Bank deposits: lower growth in demand and term segments

June 10, 2017
In March 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 11.3%, 3.2 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.6 percentage points lower than the same month of the previous year

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 9 June 2017

June 9, 2017
Highlights: The SRB carried out its first resolution with Banco Popular. The European Commission presented the Capital Markets Union Mid-Term Review. The ESRB published its Shadow Banking Monitor report. Finally, the Financial Choice Act was passed in the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress.

Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. May 2017

June 9, 2017
High momentum in commercial credits of Turkish banking sector supported by Credit Guarantee Fund continued in May, carrying credit Growth (YoY) to 17.3% level. On consumer credits side, housing and general purpose loans (GPL) remained strong. Continuing rise in deposit interest rates indicates the increased demand for deposits in this high credit growth environment.

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