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Updated: 7 hours 47 min ago

Turkey | Activity beats expectations in 4Q17

February 8, 2018
Industrial production (IP) grew by 8.7% yoy (cal. adj.) in December 2017 above the market call of near 7%. Hence, the moderation in IP proved to be limited with 7.8% annual growth in 4Q after 10.2% growth in 3Q. We maintain our 2017 GDP growth estimate at 7% with risks on the upside while the economy may moderate towards near 4.5% in 2018.

China | A sharp drop of trade surplus and continuously increasing foreign reserve

February 8, 2018
The authorities have released trade data today and foreign reverses data yesterday, pointing to a mixing picture of the country’s external balance amid global uncertainties. On the trade front, imports significantly rocketed to 36.9% in terms of USD, narrowing trade balance significantly. On the other hand, foreign reserve has increased in 12 consecutive months.

Banxico will deliver the signaled 25bp hike

February 8, 2018
The inflation outlook improvement warrants a more dovish tone. We expect wording changes to signal a possible pause in coming meetings.

Spain | New mortgage rings in the new year with good results

February 8, 2018
Following a slump in October, home sales plateaued in November. Information from subsequent months, however, points to reinvigorated sales, with mortgages up in December and both employment and consumer confidence showing improvements at the outset of 2018. Visas, meanwhile, were down in November.

Mexico | Remittances grew 6.6% in 2017,reaching a new historical peak at US$28.771 billion

February 7, 2018
The annualised growth of March (15%), July (10.8%), October (19%) and December (11.2%) of 2017 contributed greatly to reaching this record figure, mitigating the falls that occurred in some months of the year.

Mexico | INFONAVIT: its role in the mortgage market should be reviewed

February 7, 2018
For many years, INFONAVIT had a clear raison d'être: for decades, Mexico had no long-term mortgage options in the private sector. This was principally due to the fact that the country did not have a yield curve with any depth.

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - January 2018

February 6, 2018
President Trump gave his first State of the Union speech in the Congress to highlight his administration’s policies. Rivalry between Washington and Russia/China and the intention to contain Iran and North Korea have been revealed once again in his remarks. Europe remained calm, while some hot spots were observed in Latin America and Asia.

Turkey: Inflation fell on base effects as expected

February 5, 2018
Consumer prices increased by 1.02% (mom) in January, higher than our forecast (0.75%) but lower than the market call (1.3%). Annual consumer inflation fell to 10.35% from 11.92% thanks to favorable base effects mostly on food. We expect the headline to ease slightly below 10% by end 1Q but then show some volatility before falling to around 9% at the end of the year.

Spain Regional Watch. First quarter 2018

February 5, 2018
The progressive deceleration of domestic demand and foreign tourism, together with an improvement in the export sector of goods and the effects of Catalan political tension, bias the growth towards the peninsular center. The unemployment rate will approach minimums at the end of 2019 in some Autonomous Communities.

All at sea with the euro?

February 5, 2018
In a kind of déjà vu, the European Central Bank (ECB) is once again showing how ill at ease it is with exchange rate volatility. It did so when the euro appreciated to 1.20 against the dollar, and this was a factor in the downward revision of its inflation forecast and the subsequent announcement of the extension of its asset purchase programme for another nine months.

United States Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

February 3, 2018
In an environment of persistently low inflation and real equilibrium interest rates, the Fed will not be able to raise rates much further, limiting the space to cut interest rates during the next downturn. On average, the Fed has cut interest rates by 500 basis points during recessions.

Mexico | Inflation: January CPI forecast

February 3, 2018
Following the positive surprise in 1H January, our forecast for the January headline inflation print is 0.40% MoM, translating into a 5.40% YoY number (1.4pp lower than in December).

Peru Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

February 3, 2018
For 2018 we foresee GDP growing by around 3.5% (and 3.8% in 2019). The increase of just over a percentage point in growth will come about in a context in which the international panorama continues to be favourable for the Peruvian economy. On the domestic front, as well as the return to normal of weather conditions, there will be a fiscal stimulus.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 2 February 2018

February 2, 2018
Highlights: SRB published non-confidential documents on the resolution of Banco Popular. ESRB published a report on SBBS. EBA launched the 2018 stress test in cooperation with ECB. EC published sustainable finance report. EU Council adopted the Brexit negotiation directives for the transition period. Finally, ESMA published the results for CCPs stress test.

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