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Fintech: key regulatory challenges

November 14, 2017
Transformations in banking as a result of the new digital age are challenging financial regulation and supervision. Benefits and risks from the transformation of financial services. The European Banking Authority’s approach to FinTech. Among other issues.

Turkey: The Central Bank of Turkey designs a mechanism to mitigate FX volatility

November 14, 2017
The CBRT announced yesterday they will start to auction foreign exchange (FX) hedging instruments to enhance tools to manage corporates’ currency risk. We elaborate the main goal of the new tool as to reduce the Turkish lira volatility by both enhancing liquidity and increasing financial depth in the currency market.

China | October indicators suggest growth moderation continues

November 14, 2017
October economic indicators announced today, together with the credit figures released yesterday, were all below the previous readings and the market consensus. As we predicted, the economy continued its moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include prudent monetary policy and regulatory tightening as well as the supply-side reform.

Uruguay Economic Outlook. Second half 2017

November 14, 2017
Uruguay will growth 3.2% this year. There will be the second fastest growing country in the region. We project a current account result of just 0.3% of GDP for 2018. We estimate that the dollar will end this year at $ 29.5 and $ 31.4 at the end of 2018. We have adjusted our estimate of inflation to 6.3% yoy and 7.0% yoy for 2017 and 2018 respectively

Uncertain impact of uncertainty

November 14, 2017
The economic impact of the tensions currently being experienced in Catalonia is difficult to gauge. One way in which attempts have been made to do so is by constructing indices that seek to calibrate the level of uncertainty felt by households and businesses.

Andalusia Economic Outlook. Second semester 2017

November 13, 2017
Andalusia’s economy will grow by 3.2% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018. The unemployment rate will remain high (23.2%) but 206,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2018. Pre-crisis GDP will be reached but the labor market will be characterized by major challenges.

Banking Union: Half way there

November 13, 2017
The European Commission published a roadmap to ensure agreement on all the outstanding elements of the Banking Union by 2018. The EU Commission warns that the Banking Union must be completed if it is to deliver its full potential as a pillar of a strong Economic and Monetary Union and complementary to the Capital Markets Union.

China | China opens financial sector to more foreign ownership

November 13, 2017
China has taken a major step toward the long-awaited opening of its financial market. On last Friday, unveiled at a government briefing, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said China will remove foreign ownership limits on banks while allowing overseas firms to take majority stakes in local securities ventures, fund managers and life insurance companies.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: tax reform and growth, and select upcoming economic indicators

November 11, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of November 13, 2017. Special topic: will tax reform deliver faster economic growth?

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 10 November 2017

November 10, 2017
Highlights: IOSCO published reports on MMF and securitisation regulation, and on the implementation of FSB recommendation on securities markets. EBA published an opinion on regulatory perimeter under CRD IV/CRR and consulted on methods for prudential consolidation. Finally, the CNMV approved a Circular regarding foreign Collective Investment Schemes.

Turkey: IP Confirms Robust Activity in 3Q

November 9, 2017
Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecast but with risks that could be on the upside.

Global Funds Outlook. Third quarter 2017

November 8, 2017
Capital continued to flows toward Global Investment Funds (GIF), albeit at a slower pace, driven by common factors (high global liquidity, subdued US interest rates among others). Over the coming quarters, inflows to GIF shall cool down as the unwinding of central bank balance sheets starts draining liquidity. Our baseline scenario assumes a smooth normalization process.

Pianissimo

November 6, 2017
In October economists Olivier Blanchard and Larry Summers coordinated a conference on “Rethinking macroeconomic policy”, a debating forum on the challenges posed for economic policy by the new environment of low levels of inflation and interest rates combined with slow growth in productivity and increasing inequality.

Pianissimo

November 6, 2017
In October economists Olivier Blanchard and Larry Summers coordinated a conference on “Rethinking macroeconomic policy”, a debating forum on the challenges posed for economic policy by the new environment of low levels of inflation and interest rates combined with slow growth in productivity and increasing inequality.

A little more, a little less said at the IMF meetings this autumn

November 6, 2017
Two weeks have gone by since the autumn meetings of the International Monetary Fund, where the organisation once again increased its forecast for global growth. Today I want to go over the three macroeconomic subjects on which there was consensus and to highlight the two items that drew my attention the most.

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