Thursday, June 29 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 4 hours 5 min ago
Population growth and ageing in the U.S., and their implications on the economy
It had to happen. The Central Bank has cut the MPR (Monetary Policy Rate) by 25bp and modified its bias to a neutral one. It would be consistent with the macro scenario of the CB to cut the rate despite the fact that consensus and all the surveys were inclined - incorrectly, from our point of view - to maintain it.
Global growth accelerated in 1Q to 0.9% QoQ and 2Q data so far suggest further global momentum (1% QoQ). Confidence data remain very positive, especially for developed economies, while hard data point to higher investment. Moreover, the exports recovery remains on track, partly explained by upward trend in investment in recent quarters.
According to the results obtained from PISA Financial Literacy, students usually talk weekly or monthly about money matters, and the deal is greater with adult relatives than with their friends. Even so, there are differences among countries, both in frequency and conversational partner.
Dual economy in which many firms do not promote the accumulation of human capital,innovation and trade in international markets. The size of firms and its determinants, product market regulations and the environment for doing business are of paramount importance. All this in a more globalised world economy undergoing an unprecedented and disruptive technological revolution
The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17
Reduced demand reflected in slower rise in house prices compared with 2016. Banco de México presents a report on competition in payroll-related services. Banco de México publishes the first report on basic indicators of lending to SMEs. New tool for analysing personal lending conditions. Renewed threats of possible withdrawal from NAFTA amid low risk-aversion environment
After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, China’s economy started to show more signs of moderation in April. Growth moderation is due in part to the authorities’ monetary prudence and tight regulations targeted at the risky shadow banking activities as well as the overheating property market.
… and to have more room to hold rates thereafter
So far this year we have seen a significant increase in inflation. From 2.1% at the end of 2015 and 3.3% at the end of 2016, we can see that annualised inflation at the end of April 2017 had increased to 5.8%, above the central bank’s 3% target and indeed above the 4% upper limit of the tolerance band
With the French presidential elections over, at least one component of the uncertainty facing Europe has been eliminated, given the pronounced anti-EU bias of some of the candidates in contention. Many other unknowns are popping up - enough to make us think that for president Emmanuel Macron getting to where he is was the easiest part and that the real challenges lie ahead
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of May 15. Special topic: April employment and inflation reports
We are continuing to forecast growth of 1.6% this year, although risks are tilted to the downside. Inflation will continue to fluctuate below 3% yoy for most of the year. Our baseline scenario envisages a depreciation of the peso. The monetary policy rate will be around 2.5% at the end of the first semester and we estimate a growth in public spending by 4%.
In February 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 14.5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, and 4.4 percentage points higher than the same month of the previous year
Treasury announces local currency issuance calendar for US$7 billion, of a total that for this year would be US$10.5 billion at most, US$1 billion less than the limit authorised by the Budget Act