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Updated: 10 hours 16 min ago

Big Data, Big Models and Big Analysts

April 17, 2017
We didn’t have to wait long to see how Big Data would inundate our lives. When making a simple online search to plan a trip, listen to a song or buy a book, as if by magic we receive suggestions not just about what we’re looking for but about similar alternatives too

U.S. | Weekly podcast: fintech and housing

April 15, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of April 17, 2017. Special topic: fintech for boomers

Mexico | Will we see the first fruits of fiscal consolidation in 2017?

April 12, 2017
As of this year, public debt as a percentage of GDP will stop increasing. 2017 will be the first year since 2008 with a fiscal primary surplus. It is positive that the government sets a target for a fiscal primary surplus of 1% of GDP for next year. It is adequate that the government is taking the average of GDP growth forecasts from private sector analysts as its forecast

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - March 2017 Update

April 11, 2017
After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. March 2017

April 11, 2017
Total credit growth rate of the Turkish banking sector improved remarkably in March and reached 14% y-o-y. The annual rate accelerated to 26% signalling further growth for the coming months in the Y-o-Y rate. Net profit of the sector increased m-o-m by almost 30%. Net profit of public banks increased more than private banks.

Turkey: Hard data signals a gradual recovery

April 10, 2017
The calendar adjusted industrial production (IP) grew by 1% YoY (consensus of 3% and BBVA-GB 4%) in February. Lower than expected growth in IP has not confirmed the robust recovery in soft indicators so far in 2017 but still shows that the economy is gradually recovering toward its potential growth. Our monthly GDP model signals a 4.5% YoY growth in 1Q17.

Lessons from the Fed

April 10, 2017
An orderly, gradual and well communicated withdrawal - this is the message we hear most as regards the process of normalising monetary policies. And it is also one of the conclusions we draw from the ECB’s latest press conference held last Thursday in Frankfurt.

Notes on the 2017 State budget

April 10, 2017
The State budget includes conservative macroeconomic forecasts. In scenarios with greater growth and inflation than forecast, expenditure as a percentage of GDP could fall by more than expected. As always, the uncertainty is around tax revenues.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: employment, inflation and retail sales

April 8, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of April 10, 2017. Special topic: March employment report

Mexico | Credit to the private sector: maintains its performance in February

April 8, 2017
In February 2017, the balance of outstanding credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 13.0% (7.8% real), slightly higher than the rate observed in the previous month (12.8%) but lower than that registered In February 2016 (16.8%)

The impact of European banking consolidation on credit prices

April 8, 2017
The crisis has made obvious the fragility of some aspects of EMU, like financial fragmentation and the need of banking consolidation. Banks have merged due to the vulnerability of some players or in order to improve the profitability/efficiency of the sector.

Mexico | Bank deposits: greater dynamism in its two components

April 7, 2017
In January 2017, the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 14.1%, 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous month, and 2.9 percentage points higher than the same month last year

Financial Regulation Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

April 6, 2017
CRD V: State of play. MREL: Unresolved issues. NPL - ECB guidelines. Uncertainties surrounding Brexit. Innovation and regulation. Creating sustainable opportunities.

China | Decline in foreign reserves won’t grind to a halt in 2017

April 6, 2017
China’s foreign reserves seem to have stabilized at the beginning of the year. By decomposing the change of foreign reserves in 2016, we make projections of foreign reserves at end-2017 under two scenarios with distinct key assumptions. To avert a swift depletion of foreign reserves, the authorities need to prevent large swings in the exchange rate.