Saturday, August 19 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 1 hour 33 min ago
In April 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 13.7%, 2.3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 1.9 percentage points higher than the same month of the previous year
June CPI of -0.4% MoM (1.7% YoY), surprised both market expectations and baseline scenario of the Central Bank, widening room for a new cycle of MPR's cuts. Inflationary diffusion was under its historical floor. Core inflation indicators, especially for goods, reached the minimum since we have comparable statistics (2010).
In Spain, as in the rest of Europe, the number of banks has fallen significantly during the crisis. In general terms, banks have merged to improve their profitability or efficiency, or when a vulnerable bank has had to be absorbed.
Industrial production (IP) grew by 3.5% in May (calendar adjusted, YoY), signaling that economic activity maintains its momentum in 2Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) also confirms this with a growth rate close to 5% YoY by June (with 26% information so far).
The outlook for global wind energy is positive. Although government support will continue to play an important role in the development of the wind energy projects, ongoing productivity gains are expected to make subsidies and tax breaks less relevant over time.
Highlights: FSB issues final guidance on internal TLAC and continuity of access to market infrastructures. BCBS assesses as largely compliant the EU’s implementation of LCR. EBA consults on the implementation risk-based contributions for deposit guarantee schemes. ESMA consults on short selling regulation. Finally, BdE consults on the introduction of new accounting rules.
Regional recovery still on track in spite of pullback in expectations nationally
The increase in remittances is partly explained by Mexicans sending money from the United States during May for the Mothers’ Day festivities, and the low unemployment rate in the United States (4.3% in May)
In May 2017, the balance of current credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 14.3% (7.7% real), 1.6 percentage points lower than the rate observed in the previous month (15.9%) and the same rate than in May 2016
In the first quarter of 2017 the banking system posted net income of €3,514 million, the highest quarterly figure since 2009. Operating items followed the trend of the past few quarters, with revenues down slightly and costs well under control.
North Korean crisis heated up as a US student has passed away after the end of its captivity and Pyongyang regime continues with the missile tests. The Trump administration is considering further pressure on Chinese efforts to contain the crisis. The fights in Raqqa and Mosul accelerate, but some uncertainties will remain in the Post-War period.
The economy of the Basque Country grew 2.8% in 2016, will grow as much this year and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 22,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 9.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita has been recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.
The economy of Murcia region grew 3.1% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 41,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 16.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.
Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT maintains its hawkish tone