Friday, May 26 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 10 hours 17 min ago
Turkish lira appreciated mostly on local factors. Foreseeing a rising trend in inflation, the CBRT’s front-loaded tightening in April held the Turkish lira firm. On the activity side, ongoing fiscal stimulus, strong support through exports and credit growth helped GDP growth continue to be moderate in 1Q as well.
Consumer prices rose by 1.3% in line with the market consensus, but lower than our expectations (1.6%) in April. Thus, annual inflation rose further to 11.9% from 11.3%. The reason behind this month’s increase was almost entirely due to the surge in food prices. We estimate that inflation will fall into single digits in the last two months and end the year at 9%.
We have revised our growth projection for this year by a percentage point to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the fact that the three local risks we indicated in our February report have finally materialised: the weather problems continued, the delay in the major infrastructure construction projects continued and finally, business confidence dropped even further.
From 8 November when the results of the US presidential election were announced until mid-January, Mexico’s economic panorama looked gloomy. President elect Trump was relentless in his protectionist rhetoric towards Mexico – he would leave NAFTA, impose high duties on imports of Mexican cars and tax remittances to finance the construction of the border wall
Following the triggering of Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon in March, the United Kingdom's exit process has formally begun. However, there is still significant uncertainty. It is not clear, for example, whether or not the UK can reach a new trade agreement in the coming years, or if there will be a period of transition.
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of May 1, 2017. Special topic: 1Q GDP
Perspectives for world growth have increased slightly in the last quarter. In Colombia, 2017 began slowly, with growth affected by the low level of consumer confidence and sluggish public and private investment. Inflation continues to decline and BanRep will slash its benchmark rate in the coming months.
The world economy is transitioning to a carbon-free paradigm triggered by the potentially disastrous effects of climate change. In the following years, vast amounts of capital will be allocated to mitigation and adaptation projects. With the right strategy, the opportunities for the banking industry could outweigh the risks
Per the March meeting minutes, FOMC members have discussed a phased-out approach to ceasing the balance sheet reinvestment policy – to reduce “the risks of triggering financial market volatility” and avoiding a rebirth of the taper," to remain committed to acting “passive and predictable,” and to communicate “to the public well in advance of an actual change”
Growth in Latin America will recover to 1.1% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. This will bring an end to four years of slowdown and a return to growth, following the contraction of 1.4% in 2016, although growth will still be slow. The recovery in Argentina is firming up, while Brazil seems to be coming out of its period of adjustment
There was neither a discussion on the exit strategy nor clear hints of an early shift in the policy stance but risks to growth are more balanced (though still downwards). We expect some changes in forward guidance in June
Q1 GDP edged up to 6.9% YoY, we expect 2017 annual growth rate would not deviate much from the newly set official target of around 6.5%. Prudent monetary policy and tight regulations start to effect .RMB exchange rate and foreign reserves has stabilised. Downside risks: housing bubbles ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking.
In line with our expectations, the Central Bank increased late liquidity window (LLW) rate to 12.25% from 11.75% and kept the rest of the interest rates unchanged. Market consensus was the CBRT to hold the entire set of rates constant. Our rate increase expectation was based on our inflation forecast where we expect to breach 12% in April and stay close to 12% in May.
The Spanish economy will grow 3% in 2017, three tenths more than what was estimated two months ago, given the confirmation of an upward bias in the scenario. The depletion of some tailwinds calls to maintain the slowdown expectations for 2018 (2.7%). Although reforms have had a positive impact, there are still major imbalances.
Turkish economic activity maintained the momentum of the “V”-shaped GDP growth recovery in 1Q17 thanks to the impact lag of fiscal stimulus and solid export demand from EU. Consumer prices jumped on the back of mounting cost push pressures. As inflation accelerated and the Turkish lira suffered due to electoral uncertainty, Central Bank strengthened its monetary tightening
World growth continues apace. The Colombian economy will grow slightly faster than it did in 2016. 2016 saw a healthy and significant adjustment to the current account. Inflation shakes off supply-side shocks and ratifies its sharp fall. The Banco de la República has embarked on a downward rate cycle.