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Updated: 6 hours 11 min ago

Insurance Outlook. First semester 2018

May 29, 2018
Insurance projections for 2018 and 2019 show a general improvement, once corrected the volatility in the life savings branch during 2017. Insurance online purchases are still very low in Spain compared with the European Union, but their growth is very significant. According to BBVA big data, car insurance is the most purchased one by card online.

Data Protection: new rights and more responsibilities

May 28, 2018
The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which comes into force today, aims to harmonise and reinforce the legal framework of personal data protection in Europe. It is an update of the previous Directive of 1995, which had become clearly obsolete as a result of the rapid development of the new technologies.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update 25 May 2018

May 25, 2018
Council agrees general position on the banking package. EC issues a proposal for regulation on SBBS and concrete actions on sustainable finance. EBA consults on technical standards and guidelines to quantify downturns for LGD, and updates OSIIs list. Spanish Economy Ministry consults on sandbox proposal. U.S. Congress passes a financial regulation relief Bill.

Banking Outlook. May 2018

May 25, 2018
Adjustments to the number of employees and branches in the sector continue, despite the deleveraging of the private sector seems to be coming to an end. The sector is feeling the effects of the resolution and sale of Banco Popular in June 2017 and posted after-tax losses of €3.9 billion for the year, although it achieved further improvements in solvency and asset quality.

Eurozone | More moderate growth with higher uncertainty

May 24, 2018
Growth slowed in 1Q18 to 0.4% QoQ, more than expected. Hard data picked up somewhat in March, but sentiment data continues to be hesitant up to May. Our BBVA-MICA model projects growth to remain around 0.4% in 2Q18, and imply a downward bias on our 2.3% annual GDP growth projection.

Turkey´s 300bps hike: The later, the tighter

May 24, 2018
The CBRT decided yesterday to raise the “de facto” policy interest rate (Late Liquidity Window) by 300bps to 16.5% to correct the significant depreciation of the Turkish Lira, also with other reasons including the huge deviation of inflation from the target and expectations, financial stability motives and rapid loss of credibility during the last two weeks.

Basque Country Economic Outlook 2018

May 22, 2018
The economy of the Basque Country grew 3.1% in 2017; GDP growth is expected to keep its rate at 3.1% in 2018 and slow down to 2.8% in 2019. This will add around 30,000 new jobs in the period and average unemployment shall drop to 8.8%. Creating more and better jobs remains as the main challenge.

Mexico is going to need fiscal legislation that is actually complied with

May 22, 2018
The country has made great advances in the last twenty or so years in designing an institutional framework that contributes towards having well-ordered public finances. In 2006 the Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Act was passed.

The power of the ECB’s words and tone

May 21, 2018
The way the European Central Bank modulates its tone with each announcement has recently become an important tool for keeping track of monetary policy. This has come about since central banks have added specific commitments and credible and transparent communication to their toolbox.

China | Mixed results from US trade talks

May 21, 2018
The second round of negotiations held last week between the US and China to resolve a long standing bitter trade dispute has yielded mixed results. While ongoing trade talks have been broadly progressive, they are unlikely to provide a quick fix permanent solution to US-China trade tensions, which stem from bilateral trust deficit and deeper structural issues.

The United States and Iran’s oil

May 21, 2018
President Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear agreement with Iran has generated unease in the markets. The price of Brent crude was close to US$80 per barrel in the days following the announcement, a level not seen in the last four years. The withdrawal from the agreement by the U.S. means the re-establishment of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran

Global | Growth continues to be strong in 2Q18, with higher uncertainty

May 19, 2018
Positive global momentum continued at the beginning of 2Q18, but in a context of greater uncertainty. Hard data indicators have been mixed with robust industrial production but more hesitant private consumption and global trade. Across large areas, US data has been positive while the EZ is stabilizing after a disappointing 1Q and China is decelerating very slowly

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update 18 May 2018

May 18, 2018
Highlights: BCBS and IOSCO issue criteria to identify STC securitisations, and standards for their capital treatment. EIOPA launches EU-wide stress test. CNMV consults on disclosure models for financial reports. BdE consults on draft circular regarding the comparability of fees. Finally, U.S. agencies issue proposed rulemaking regarding Current Expected Credit Losses.

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