Thursday, June 29 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 5 hours 8 min ago
Do you access your bank online? If so, you are among the fifteen million users of online banking in Spain, six million more than in 2010.
Annual consumer inflation marginally fell for the first time after 6 months to 11.7% from 11.9% in April. Core inflation remained stable at 9.4% despite the ongoing exchange rate pass-through. We expect the headline to fall towards 11-11.5% band in June and remain at double digits before falling to 9% at the year-end.
The periodic meetings of the group of most developed nations took shape in the mid 1970s as a forum for discussing economic issues of global importance. At that time they dealt with major events such as the collapse of the exchange rate system based on the convertibility of gold and the dollar, or the Middle East oil embargo.
The growth rate of the Portuguese economy in 1Q17 accelerated to 1.0% QoQ, surpassing the BBVA Research estimate (0.2% QoQ). The quarterly growth was due to the positive contribution of external demand (0.8pp), given the strength exports have once again shown in a context of import slowdown.
Discussion on the recent auto sales trends and expectations for the coming period
Remittances to Mexico amounted to US$2,306 million in April, 6.2% more than in the same month of last year. This is the biggest ever figure for the month of April; March also posted a new record for that month
Highlights: The Commission published a report on how to deepen the EMU. The Parliament, Council and Commission reached an agreement regarding securitisations and venture capital. The Commission agreed in principle on Monte dei Paschi’s preventive recapitalization. Finally, the ECB issued a letter on IFRS 9 transitional arrangements.
The European Commission has published a reflection paper on the future of the euro area, the proposals in two steps (up to 2019 and to 2025) on key issues such as banking and capital markets union, centralization of supervision in markets and insurances, safe bonds, regulation of sovereign debt on bank balances, fiscal stabilization and a European Treasury.
Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and sovereign markets spreads have been decreasing for over a year, reaching lows not seen since the spring of 2014 or 2007. Most of the large sovereign spread’s increases seen during the turmoil in 2015 and 2016 in EMs has vanished
FOMC minutes and Fedspeak have signaled FOMC readiness to raise the Fed funds rate by another 25bp at its next meeting in June. The Committee’s commitment to the gradual reduction of its balance sheet “later this year” remains unchanged and will likely receive be green lighted once the funds rate extends midway towards the median of the FOMC projected long-run rate of 3.0%
Uruguay returns to growth, 1.9% in 2017 and 3% in 2018, with a strong impulse from investment. The fiscal balance is improving, although at a slower rate than expected. Inflation will remain outside the target range, reaching 8% in 2017 and 7.9% in 2018. The Fx rate will end 2017 at $31.1, avoiding a deterioration in competitiveness vis a vis its main regional partners
Following the release of recent indicators, voices have again been raised seeking further cuts in the MPR. We do not rule out further adjustments, but for this to happen will require more discouraging figures, not just as regards activity but also in the labour market, and particularly regarding inflation to force the hand of the monetary authority.
Tensions surrounding the North Korean nuclear test program remained in the spotlight becoming one of the main US foreign policy concerns. The US announced its support for the Syrian Kurdish in the fight against ISIS. The campaign to seize Raqqa is accelerating. Recent peace talks in Syria as well as the “de-escalation zone” agreement reduced conflict intensity in May.
GDP growth continues in moderate pace. Food inflation keeps the headline high but it will ease somehow in summer. CBT continues to fund mostly on LLW, keeping the average funding just below 12%.
Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved notably in May, led by Housing, SOE and Shadow Banking components, which offset a deterioration in Exchange Rate Vulnerability Index. The improvement in CVSI reflects underlying investor confidence that macro-financial headwinds facing China still remain manageable amid policy efforts to anchor financial stability.
On May 26th, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, henceforth, it would add a ‘counter-cyclical adjustment factor’ to its model guiding daily USDCNY midpoint fixing. The tweak aims to reduce excess Yuan volatility and curb one-way bets by easing ‘herd behavior’, but risks backpedaling Yuan exchange rate regime to the one prior to the reform in August 2015.