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Updated: 1 hour 31 min ago

U.S. | Weekly podcast: housing starts and 2Q GDP

July 22, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of July 24, 2017. Special topic: housing starts

U.S | FOMC Meeting July 25th-26th

July 22, 2017
July meeting opportunity for Fed to keep markets aligned with a gradual tightening path

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 21 July 2017

July 21, 2017
Highlights: CPMI and IOSCO published update on the implementation of the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures. ESMA issued a consultation on suitability requirements following MiFID II. EBA issued final RTS and ITS on information requirements for the authorization of credit institutions. EC issued a consultation on its sustainable finance interim report.

Economic recovery facilitates compliance with stability targets

July 21, 2017
The deficit adjustment continues in April 2017, led by Central government. In this scenario, the stability objectives are achievable thanks to the economic recovery. Given the persistence of imbalances, such as high public debt levels, there is still much work to be done for the control of the public accounts.

Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 21, 2017
We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.

Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

July 21, 2017
The Argentine economy entered its third consecutive quarter of recovery. Growth forecasts of 2.8% for 2017 and 3% for 2018. Gradually decreasing trend in core inflation will be maintained in the coming months. Inflation as measured by INDEC's GBA CPI will reach 19.5% y/y at the end of 2017, still above the BCRA’s target of 12-17% YoY

Mexico | The US looks to keep the essence of NAFTA, but renegotiations will be complicated

July 21, 2017
Even though the Summary of Objectives for the NAFTA Renegotiation contains some rhetoric elements among which the goal of reducing the US trade deficit with Mexico and Canada stands out, such objectives do not suggest deep changes to NAFTA

ECB Watch: Further steps in the autumn

July 21, 2017
As widely expected, the ECB remained on hold, in a unanimous decision. The discussion on tapering of QE to take place in the Autumn, most likely in September. The ECB is paying “attention” to the appreciation of the euro

Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 20, 2017
Slow growth in Latin America. Growth will increase from -1.2% in 2016 to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018, a slow recovery from deceleration in the previous years. Recovery will be driven by Brazil and Argentina’s exit from recession. Other countries will decelerate in 2017 compared to 2016.

Infographic Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 20, 2017
Slow growth in Latin America. Growth will increase from -1.2% in 2016 to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018, a slow recovery from deceleration in the previous years. Recovery will be driven by Brazil and Argentina’s exit from recession. Other countries will decelerate in 2017 compared to 2016.

China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 20, 2017
Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

Portugal: growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 raised

July 20, 2017
Available data point to a stabilisation of GDP growth during 2Q17 at around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA1. This estimate is likely to be the result of the continued growth of private consumption and the positive contribution of both the construction sector and tourism.

Mexico | Yearbook of migration and remittances 2017

July 20, 2017
The Yearbook of Migration and Remittances Mexico 2017 is the result of a collaborative project between El Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), BBVA Bancomer Foundation and BBVA Research, which integrates the key statistics on the different dimensions and facets of the migratory dynamics of Mexico and the world

Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 20, 2017
We revised down our GDP forecasts to 0.6% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018, largely due to the upsurge of political tensions. Nevertheless, the economy will likely continue to recover, leaving behind the recession. Among other factors, the recovery will be driven by monetary policy, whose expansive tone will contrast with fiscal policy’s restrictive tone.

Eurozone | Upward revision of GDP with a broad-based recovery

July 19, 2017
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests that GDP growth could have improved again in 2Q (0.7% QoQ) as strong confidence has been met by better hard data. We have revised upwards GDP forecast for 2017 (by 0.3pp to 2.0%), though we continue to expect some moderation for 2018 (1.7%). The ECB is expected to embark in a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Political risk has eased.

Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 19, 2017
The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil price shock maintaining growth in positive territory. The recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation will continue to descend in 2018 within the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its policy rate

U.S. | The Permian basin and the rebound in U.S. crude oil production

July 19, 2017
U.S. crude oil production continues to increase, complicating efforts made by OPEC and its partners to stabilize the market through output cuts

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