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Updated: 3 hours 5 min ago

China | Policy-led growth moderation coupled with mitigated financial risks

5 hours 42 min ago
China’s Q3 GDP growth declined to 6.8% from its 6.9% y/y reading in 1H. It suggests that after registering a stronger-than-expected growth in 1H, the economy showed more signs of moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include the continuing prudent monetary policy and the regulatory tightening on shadow banking and property market.

IFRS 9: Pro-cyclicality of provisions. Spanish banks as an illustration

17 hours 38 min ago
IFRS 9 incorporates a forward looking assessment by moving from an incurred credit loss approach to an expected credit loss approach for the measurement of impairment allowances with the aim of recognising credit losses earlier in the cycle. This paper discusses the implications of this new approach for regulatory capital including its procyclicality for Spanish banks.

Portugal: growth picked up in 3Q17

October 18, 2017
The available data points to a slight pick-up in GDP growth in 3Q17 of around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA. This estimate is likely to result from new momentum in investment and the lively levels of both exports and tourism. However, these may be counteracted by a less bullish performance of private consumption and an uptick in imports.

Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

October 18, 2017
The economic outlook is improving in the second half of the year. The Peruvian economy will grow at around 2.5% yoy in the second half of the year (and at around the same rate for 2017 as a whole), with increased support from domestic demand. For next year, GDP will grow at close to 4% yoy. This forecast is subject to the fiscal stimulus.

Financial inclusion and regulation: successes and failures in Colombia

October 17, 2017
BBVA Research y el Centro para el Desarrollo Global han elaborado un Índice que permite valorar y comparar las prácticas regulatorias para la inclusión financiera en ocho países latinoamericanos. ¿En qué lugar se sitúa Colombia dentro del índice? ¿Cuáles son sus fortalezas?

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. October 2017

October 17, 2017
Update of the risk assessment by the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). The value of construction companies’ activity fell 2.7% in July 2017. Losses for Emerging Market assets on investor expectations factoring in an additional hike by the Fed towards year end

Mexico | Both before and afterwards, NAFTA is advantageous for all three economies

October 17, 2017
In the past few days the protectionist rhetoric wielded by several members of the US government, starting with president Donald Trump himself, has begun to be ratcheted up again. Once again the spurious argument has been peddled that NAFTA has been detrimental to the US economy and that this is borne out by the fact that the US is running a trade deficit with Mexico

IIF Panel "New Methods for Old Questions". Big Data at BBVA Research

October 16, 2017
Big Data allows us to use massive new flows of data (numbers, text & images…) on real time​ and new scope​ to ​complement with new methods the answer to old questions. The new technologies allow us to ​gauge not only structural issues ​ ​as Geopolitics, Trade, Globalization... ​but also the analysis of Business Cycle, narratives, sentiments.

Strengthening the European System of Financial Supervision

October 16, 2017
The European financial supervision system is undergoing significant changes, stemming from the two major European projects underway - the Banking Union and the Capital Markets Union - and the UK’s exit from the European Union in the wake of the Brexit vote.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: the state of the housing market

October 14, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 16, 2017. Special topic: the state of the housing market

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 13 October 2017

October 13, 2017
Highlights: FSB issued a report on interest rate benchmarks. EC published a communication on the finalization of the Banking Union, and the first review of the SSM. EBA issued consultation on resolution plan reporting and issued opinion on Brexit relocations. Finally, the US Treasury published the second report on financial regulation.

China Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

October 13, 2017
China's economy showed signs of moderation in the third quarter due to a number of policy initiatives .To reflect the strong 1H growth and mitigated risks, we raise our 2017 growth forecast to 6.7%. Looking ahead, the dynamic of China’s economy will highly depend on the authorities’ attitudes towards the balance between pursuing growth and maintaining financial stability.

U.S. | Blockchain: The Road to Utopia

October 12, 2017
Non-financial blockchain applications are growing exponentially. Transaction costs will decline considerably, thereby impacting the role of intermediaries. The blockchain is expected to set the basis for better economic, social and political systems

Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

October 11, 2017
We continue to expect the Brazilian economy to grow by 0.6% this year and by 1.5% in the next one. While recent data suggest that the recovery could be somewhat stronger than expected, the fiscal situation and political noise prevent further optimism about growth.