Thursday, July 20 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 11 hours 42 min ago
The Yearbook of Migration and Remittances Mexico 2017 is the result of a collaborative project between El Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), BBVA Bancomer Foundation and BBVA Research, which integrates the key statistics on the different dimensions and facets of the migratory dynamics of Mexico and the world
We revised down our GDP forecasts to 0.6% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018, largely due to the upsurge of political tensions. Nevertheless, the economy will likely continue to recover, leaving behind the recession. Among other factors, the recovery will be driven by monetary policy, whose expansive tone will contrast with fiscal policy’s restrictive tone.
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests that GDP growth could have improved again in 2Q (0.7% QoQ) as strong confidence has been met by better hard data. We have revised upwards GDP forecast for 2017 (by 0.3pp to 2.0%), though we continue to expect some moderation for 2018 (1.7%). The ECB is expected to embark in a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Political risk has eased.
The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil price shock maintaining growth in positive territory. The recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation will continue to descend in 2018 within the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its policy rate
U.S. crude oil production continues to increase, complicating efforts made by OPEC and its partners to stabilize the market through output cuts
We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.
The Spanish economy will grow 3.3% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, three and one tenth more than what was estimated three months ago, confirming the upward bias anticipated on the scenario. If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could be reduced to 15.3% by 2018, which would mean a recovery of two-thirds of the employment lost during the crisis.
How Big Data helps in understanding secular declines in U.S. prime age labor force participation
Should wages be increased? If so, by how much? Can the export sector continue to drive growth in employment? Is a bubble being formed in the property market? These are some of the questions that will be asked now that the Spanish economy is entering a phase of prolonged growth.
Growth of emerging ASEAN, chiefly Indonesia & Philippines, is underpinned by improving demographic dividend and rapid urbanization. ASEAN banks benefit from adequate capital buffers and manageable asset quality concerns. ASEAN banks profitability trends are stabilizing post contraction over the past three years.
The Annual Summit of the G20 took place on 7 and 8 July, chaired by Germany. There were no unexpected messages, although the intensity of the stress laid on international coordination and cooperation being key to improving economic growth and social wellbeing was remarkable.
2017 Q2 GDP reached 6.9% y/y, flat with Q1 outturn and higher than the market concensus of 6.8% y/y, suggesting growth momentum is stronger than expected. The strong growth momentum is reflected in a batch of economic activity indicators released today. Both surging external demand and comparatively easing credit condition in June contributed to the good performance.
Machines are likely to take over many tasks that humans perform, but they are not likely to seize many occupations entirely. The necessity of flexible labor retraining programs is essential. The major documented impact of automation on labor has been a decline in worker hours.
Highlights: The Council of the EU set out the action plan to deal with NPLs. The European Commission issued a consultation on the creation of secondary markets for NPLs. EBA updated its impact assessment of IFRS 9 on banks. Finally CNMV extended the short-selling ban on Liberbank.
Reflection on the future of the Economic and Monetary Union. Reviewing the G-SIBs framework. Improving the supervisory regime. Assessment of the regulatory framework. CMU mid-term revision. US Treasury report. Fostering financial innovation and Resolution: At the moment of truth.
Mortgage rates are firmly on the rise. The CNBV has released an update on its Financial Inclusion Report. Banxico has updated its report on housing loan indicators. Payroll loans have become more sluggish in spite of the improved conditions as regards the sum borrowed and the lending rate