Sunday, February 26 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 2 hours 47 min ago
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of February 27, 2017
The consumer confidence index fell by 26% in annual terms during January 2017, which represents the biggest annual contraction in the history of the index. More negative sentiments on both the current and future economic situation of the country were the main drivers behind the January’s sharp annual drop in the consumer confidence index
Administration’s agenda has the potential to boost U.S. economy, but high degree of uncertainty remains. For the time being, the Fed’s appetite for higher growth and inflation may be limited. However, normalization path to remain gradual. Mix of policies and timing could produce distinct group of winners and losers at the state level
South America will recover in 2017 after a 4-year slowdown, but in Mexico, the shock of US policy uncertainty is being received in full. The different response to uncertainty about US policies marks the divergence in the dynamics of growth in the two areas of Latin America. South America will grow by about 1% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.
Recent performance of public accounts and the new fiscal measures adopted at the end of the year, anticipates the compliance with the stability target of 2016. The highest deficit adjustment of 2016 was recorded in autonomous communities. The improvement in activity would have been sufficient to bring the public imbalance into line with the targets set for 2017 and 2018.
The economy began to recover in 4Q16 and will grow 2.8% in 2017 driven by investment. The downward stickiness of core inflation and the increase in tariffs will keep inflation at 20.8% YoY in 2017, and the CB in a tight stance. 2017 financial needs at USD 40 billion to be covered by debt issues will result in capital inflows and tend to appreciate the real exchange rate
Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth to reach 0.5% QoQ in 1Q (2H16: 0.4%) as improving confidence at the start of 2017 suggest that the recovery could be gaining momentum in 1Q17. We have revised slightly upward our growth projections to 1.6% this year and next, though political risks persist.
Global conditions improve but some uncertainties remain. Turkish economic activity gradually recovers after the slump in the third quarter of 2016. The Central Bank tightened monetary policy to contain exchange rate and inflationary pressures. The New National Accounts reveal higher potential output for the Turkish Economy
We have revised our growth projection downwards, from 4.1% to 3.5%. The delay in infrastructure construction, one of the main risk factors considered in the report that we published last quarter, materialised in early 2017.
The Infonavit should be allowed not to report information on its affiliates to the credit bureau. Expectations about the policies of the new US administration continue to influence markets. Adjustments to CNBV’s banking rulebook. Revisions to the Banking Performance Assessment of the SHCP
The Digitization Index (DiGiX) assesses the factors, agents’ behavior and institutions that enable a country to fully leverage Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) for increased competitiveness and well-being. It is a composite index that summarizes relevant indicators on 100 countries’ digital performance.
Tensions between the USA and China have been rising since Donald Trump was elected president in November of last year. During his election campaign, Trump accused China of manipulating its exchange rate, threatening to introduce trade tariffs of 45% on imports from Asian industrial power.
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of February 20, 2017. Special topic: oil price outlook
The global economy is gradually accelerating on the back of United States growth. Colombia GDP growth will rise from 1.9% in 2016 to 2.4% and 3.3% in 2017 and 2018. Investment will be decisive for reaching theses figures. The progressive reduction of inflation will allow BanRep to slash rates during 2017 and 2018.