Thailand Plus One - Investors opting for caution

THE military has successfully unravelled Thaksin’s support base, but in doing so has destroyed Thailand’s pro-democracy movement, says political analyst, Pavan Chachavalpong . . .

Foreign businesses are said to be looking beyond Thailand for opportunities as the country’s military Government looks to become entrenched in office for an indefinite time, according to the Thai political analyst, Pavin Chachavalpongpun.
Pavin, based at Kyoto University’s Centre for Southeast Asian Studies, cites as an example the changing mindset of Japanese business groups. “They have now adopted a ‘Thailand plus one’ strategy, and are looking beyond Thailand to have plants in Laos, Cambodia and Indonesia,” he says.
A self-confessed critic of the Thai military — he has had his Thai passport revoked — Pavin says Japanese businesses have large investments in Thailand and are unlikely to walk away from the country. In fact, he says, they are guided by the policy of the Japanese Government, which, like the United States, is adopting a “softly-softly” approach to Thailand’s military Government.
Generally, he says, foreign businesses are split into two camps.
There are those who have already invested in Thailand. These have experienced previous coups and take things for granted. They believe that, as with the past 10 or so military coups, Thailand will bounce back with its economy virtually unscathed.
The other group will likely be concerned with what is happening and fear that things could end up badly with another round of street violence. These investors will look for alternative destinations for new investment. “You are seeing this among some Japanese investors who do not want to put all their eggs in one basket.”
While it is hard to predict the outcome of the most recent coup, Pavin says that what is obvious is that the military has systematically dismantled the Red Shirts (supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra) network, especially in the Thaksin stronghold in the northeastern provinces.
Pavin says troops have been sent to the villages to break down the Red Shirts organization, and that village leaders have been intimated. Many of these leaders have fled to neighbouring Laos and Cambodia. Key Red Shirt leaders in Bangkok were detained for a few days following the coup and have been freed after signing agreements with the military to abstain from further political agitation.
Pavin believes the military has successfully unravelled Thaksin’s support base, but in doing so has destroyed Thailand’s pro-democracy movement. And, indeed, he does not believe all Red Shirts are supporters of Thaksin. He says their unifying goal is democracy for Thailand.
“As I see it, Thailand is facing a serious crisis. There may be calm in Bangkok today, but there are simmering tensions. It is like water that will continue to boil. When it reaches a certain temperature, it will boil over.”
Pavin says it is a fallacy to describe Thai people as “placid” and peaceful. “People (outside Thailand) have been indoctrinated. The truth is that Thai people are no less brutal than other races.”
The chatter in social media tells a story of anger and frustration.  Pavin laments the fact that world powers, like Washington, are too preoccupied with geopolitical instability elsewhere to care about Thailand’s loss of democracy. The push to regain democracy will have to come from within Thailand, he predicts, as the world is not giving it a helping hand.
He accuses the military of entrenching itself, with no intention of promoting political reform and democracy. “They talk about holding an election, but the Prime Minister (General Prayuth Chan-ocha) has already said there is no timeframe in which an election will be called. To me, this signals that the military intends to stay in power longer than originally expected.
“The military should have picked some people from the last Government, the pro-democracy camp. Instead, it handpicked its own people. How do you expect military men to run education, trade and industry?”
Pavin says this coup is different to the last one in 2006. “If you look at the current political situation, Thailand is approaching the time of a Royal accession, playing a game of musical chairs. Whoever is in the chair when the Royal accession takes place gets the power.
Since the coup d’état, the military Government has vested itself with wide ranging powers, issued an interim Constitution, and has granted itself amnesty.