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Rising challenges to Asian growth, says ANZ
October 2, 2018
SINGAPORE – In the third 2018 quarterly edition of its Asia Economic Outlook, ANZ Bank says the growth environment has become more challenging as the year has progressed, impacted by a combination of slowing global trade and country-specific issues.
“We have revised our 2018 and 2019 growth forecasts lower for several economies,” the bank says.
“The growth challenges have also unfortunately arisen at a time when US growth is still solid.”
ANZ says the growth divergence is and should continue to weigh on asset prices in the region.
“The pressure on asset prices has been particularly pronounced in the region’s three current account deficit economies and, in turn, has at least selectively prompted material monetary tightening.
“Another quarter of asset price volatility lies ahead, in our view.”
ANZ GDP forecasts for Emerging Asia in 2018 and 2019 are as follows: China, 6.5% (2018), 6.3% (2019); India (to March 2019 and March 2020) 7.2%, 7.4%; Korea, 2.7%, 2.5%; Taiwan 2.3%, 2.3%; Hong Kong, 3.4%, 2.5%; Singapore, 3.5%, 3.0%; Indonesia 5.2, 5.0%; Malaysia, 5.1%, 4.9%; Thailand, 4.5%, 4.0%; Philippines, 6.5%, 6.4%.
