Mixed economic data: US outperforms, China, Eurozone sluggish

November 17, 2018

MADRID - BBVA Bank reports mixed hard global economic data in September, with increasing differences across regions - the US continuing to outperform, but growth in China and the Eurozone remaining sluggish.

Weak industrial production and retail sales point to a more moderate expansion of the manufacturing sector, while private consumption could lose some steam in 2H18, BBVA says.

"Global trade has strengthened since mid-year, driven by strong exports in China and emerging Asia, but this partly reflects the frontloading of exports -- pre-emptively reacting to potentially higher tariffs early next year."

Trade figures were gloomier elsewhere.

BBVA says confidence data in October declined further, mainly in the manufacturing sector and in the Eurozone and China, but still remains in expansionary territory.

"Despite supportive policies across the board and robust domestic demand, there are increasing concerns about the negative effects of heightened uncertainty on activity. Core inflation has increased slightly overall, while headline measure seems to have peaked.

"More recently, lower oil demand prospects and excess of supply linked to geopolitical reasons have resulted in a sharp decline in oil prices."   www.bbvaresearch.com (ATI).