Islamic parties rise - Megawati’s ambitions destroy Jokowi’s vote

FORMER Presidents Megawati’s ambitions for her daughter are being blamed for an unexpected setback to the Presidential hopes of the popular Joko Widodo — as Islamic parties snare a total 39 per cent of the vote in legislative polling in Indonesia . . .  

JAKARTA — Indonesia’s Islamic parties, which were thought to be so badly tarnished by corruption charges that they would fade away in Indonesia's April legislative elections, made a stunning comeback — while the most popular non-Muslim candidate, Joko Widodo, suffered an unexpected setback.
The Islamic parties picked up nearly six per cent of the vote, lifting their total share to almost 39 per cent — up from near 26 per cent in 2009.
The strong showing gives Islamic parties, if they are able to unite as a group, a fighting chance at having a shot at the Presidency when the Presidential election is run in July.
But it remains to be seen whether they will be able to gain additional votes outside their own primary constituencies in future elections — and whether they will be able to collectively increase their influence within Indonesian politics.
In June last year, ATI quoted US academic Donald Weatherbee as predicting that Islamic issues would become significant in a post- Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Indonesia, and that the country's next President could campaign on a platform that moves towards Islamic issues — not as central but as "lateral" issues.)
There is now considerable soul-searching as to why the most popular candidate, Joko Widodo (or Jokowi as he is dubbed by the Indonesian media), the former Governor of Jakarta, failed to garner the votes expected for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), founded and headed by Megawati Sukarnoputri.
With Jokowi as its Presidential candidate, PDIP was expected to pull in 25-35 per cent of the votes, to give the Party a head start in nominating its own Presidential candidate without seeking Coalition partners. If that had happened, Indonesia would be rid of its sometimes unwieldy "Rainbow Coalition" Government.
Instead, PDIP received approximately 18.94 per cent of votes cast by 100 million Indonesians, gaining just five per cent of additional votes from the last legislative election in 2009. In 1999, when Megawati won the election, her party obtained 33.7 per cent of all votes.
As political pundits in Jakarta have previously told ATI, Megawati has been reluctant to fully endorse Jokowi, as she harbours ambitions for herself and her daughter, Puan Maharani.
Megawati procrastinated over several months before anointing Jokowi as the Party's candidate in March — a couple of weeks before the election was held.
And when he was finally on her team, she chose to feature herself and her daughter  in television advertisements during the campaign period. As a result, voters did not connect Jokowi with PDIP.
Jokowi himself indicated in his first post-election interview that the lack of television advertisements featuring him, and a barrage of negative advertisements by his political opponents (especially from the Gerindra Party) in social media, may have prevented more voters from casting their ballots for PDIP.
PDIP may also have failed to win more votes in the legislative election because campaign messages were delivered through the efforts of individual legislative candidates (calegs) rather than through an organised strategy planned by the national party headquarters in Jakarta, observes Alexander R.Arifinato, writing for the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS).
Arifinato says many calegs did not make use of party structures during their campaigns, and often failed to mention which parties they came from when campaigning.
Vote-buying was also heavily used by all political parties in their grassroots-level campaigns, and, while its actual effects are very difficult to measure, it may have taken away some potential votes from PDIP as well, Arifinato wrote in a paper analysing the election.
PDIP seems to have been caught in internal rivalry between Jokowi and Megawati's daughter, Puan Maharani, Chairwoman of the Party's legislative election campaign committee, he added. Observers says the Party must resolve its own issues before the Presidential election ramps into top gear  in June, otherwise Jokowi may run into more difficulties in the Presidential race.
Arifianto says two lessons can be drawn from the preliminary results of the 2014 legislative election (a clear picture is expected in May).
First, the enormous popularity of a Party's Presidential candidate is not a guarantee for the Party to win the legislative election.
Second, the resurgence of Islamic parties in their combined vote share should not be interpreted as a sign that political Islam is enjoying increased support from the Indonesian electorate — at least not just yet. Rather, indications suggest that this is the result of these parties’ efforts at consolidating support among their primary constituencies.
The National Awakening Party ( PKB), which is affiliated with the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU),
Indonesia's largest Islamic organisation, managed to gain approximately 9.2 per cent of the vote share at this election, nearly doubling its performance of 4.9 per cent obtained in 2009. This makes it the biggest winner among the five Islamic parties.
Twelve national political parties competed in the 2014 legislative election. Many increased their vote share compared to their 2009 result, and only the incumbent President Yudhoyono's Democratic Party (PD) lost shares — approximately 11 per cent of its vote compared to 2009.
Gerindra, led by General Prabowo Subianto, gained seven per cent more votes than in 2009, while Golkar snared 14.3 per cent.