Is India’s GDP forecast poised for downward revision?

January 8, 2018

NEW DELHI - First advance estimates for full year FY2018 (fiscal year ending March 2018) for India show that GDP growth is expected to slow to 6.5% for that period from 7.1% in the 12 months to March 2017. However, the forecast is mainly predicated on soft H1 FY2018 growth, ANZ Bank says. 

“In contrast, GDP growth for H2 FY2018 is estimated at 7%, which looks implausible, in our view,” ANZ says. “Investment spending continues to be a soft spot. More importantly, fiscal constraints are likely to weigh on public spending.

“Looking ahead, we expect India’s growth to rebound in FY2019 as the economy recovers from supply-side disruptions.”

ANZ is topping the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain its repo rate at 6.00% throughout 2018. (ATI).