IATA passenger forecast update shows dip in long-term demand

GENEVA – in an updated growth forecast, the International Air Transport Association (IATA)  is projecting that passenger numbers will reach 7 billion by 2034 with 3.8% average annual growth in demand (2014 baseline year). That is more than double the 3.3 billion who flew in 2014 and exactly twice as many as the 3.5 billion expected in 2015. 

 Previously, IATA forecast 7.4 billion passengers in 2034 based on a 4.1% average annual growth rate. The revised result reflects negative developments in the global economy that are expected to dampen demand for air transport, especially slower economic growth projections for China.
The five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year over the forecast period will be China (758 million new passengers for a total of 1.196 billion), the US (523 million new passengers for a total of 1.156 billion), India (275 million new passengers for a total of 378 million), Indonesia (132 million new passengers for a total of 219 million) and Brazil (104 million new passengers for a total of 202 million).
Seven of the ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa. Vietnam comes in at No 10, to double in size in each of the next two decades.
Indonesia-East Timor will be the fastest growing route, at 13.9%, followed by India-Hong Kong (10.4).
China is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest passenger market (defined by traffic to, from and within) by 2029. In 2034 China will account for some 1.19 billion passengers, 758 million more than 2014, with an average annual growth rate of 5.2%.
Traffic to, from and within the US is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.1% that will see 1.16 billion passengers by 2034 (523 million more than 2014). India will displace the United Kingdom as the third-largest market in 2026, with Indonesia rising to number 5 in the world.
Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2034, for an overall market size of 2.9 billion. In relative terms it will increase its size compared to other regions to 42% of global passenger traffic, and its annual average growth rate, 4.9%, will be the joint-highest with the Middle East. www.iata.org  (ATI).