Growth for EU, US in 2014, but China to slow: Coface

HONG KONG – Following its Country Risk Conference held in Hong Kong this week, global trade credit insurer Coface has released its 2014 Economic Forecast, forecasting that the Eurozone will be out of recession and that growth will accelerate in the US in 2014.

Coface says that private domestic demand will drive growth in the US, while growth will be positive but weak in 2014. It says growth is slowing in the bulk of large emerging economies.

Coface forecasts global GDP growth to lift to 3.1% in 2014 from 2.5% in 2013. But while emerging markets will benefit from the higher growth prospects in advanced economies through the trade channel, most of them will not recover their pre-crisis growth levels, especially the largest ones.

In China, Coface says, despite an expected pickup in exports, the economy is likely to slow further because of slowing credit growth. “This moderating credit cycle is required to correct past excesses: overall private sector debt, including shadow banking credit, now accounts according to estimates, for 200% of GDP - by far the highest figure among large emerging market economies. www.coface.com (ATI).