Exit polls show Jokowi likely next Indonesian President, but may need Coalition support

JAKARTA - Exit polls from Indonesia’s Parliamentary election show a likely win for PDI-P, but with a much narrower margin than recent opinion polls suggested. They suggest that Jokowi’s PDI-P captured about 19% of the vote, while Golkar received 14% and Gerindra 12%. The result was well below recent opinion polls, which suggested PDI-P was gaining about 35-40% of the popular vote. The official results will be published on May 9.

In a research note, ANZ Bank says current exit polls suggest a volatile political landscape in the run up to Presidential elections.

A party (or coalition) needs 20% of parliamentary seats or 25% of the popular vote in order to nominate their own President and Vice President candidate.

Although in 2009 the Demokrat party’s 20.85% of the vote translated into 26.79% of parliamentary seats, such an outcome may not occur for the PDI-P current projection of 19% of the popular vote due to the likely location of the majority of PDI-P support in Java and Bali.

This could suggest that the parliamentary seats may not achieve the 20% threshold and so a Coalition would need to be formed for the Presidential nomination. In addition, failure to gain a clear majority in July’s Presidential vote could extend uncertainty into Q4 as a second round vote would take place in September 2014.

Nevertheless, ANZ says, the probability of Jokowi winning the Presidential election is still high; opinion polls still show him with 45% support.

However the ability to push through reforms under a weaker mandate may come in doubt. In addition, if a Coalition is formed, the choice of Vice Presidential running mate may be made for him by the coalition. www.live.anz.com (ATI).