Exit polls in India show Modi may not need other party support

May 13, 2014
Reprints and Permissions - Re-use this article.

NEW DELHI - With a projection of 272 seats on average for the BJP-led NDA Coalition, exit polls on Monday evening were pointing to the possibility of an even stronger Coalition government coming into power in India than in 2009, when the current government, the Congress-led UPA coalition won 262 seats, up from 218 in 2004). The number needed for a simple majority is 272.

Individual forecasts of various polling agencies for the BJP-led NDA Coalition (of which Narendra Modi is the Prime Ministerial candidate) range from 249 to 283 (and a much lower range of 92 to 108 for the current Congress-led UPA government). Pre-poll surveys were pointing to a slightly lower range of 234 to 275 seats for the NDA.
There is speculation that the sharp move up in equity markets on Friday (May 9) was due to a leak of some of the exit poll results earlier.
In a research note, ANZ economists said that if actual results (to be announced on Friday - May 16) are on the higher side of the forecast range, the BJP-led NDA Coalition may not need to partner with any other party at all.
“For the time being, these results should somewhat allay concerns about what could be tricky partnerships to forge with large regional parties if the BJP-led NDA were to win seats notably short of the minimum 272 required. Modi’s recent public war of words with Mamta Banerjee, leader of the large regional party TMC (Trinamool Congress) stoked these concerns.”
“While exit polls ‘got it right’ in 1999, they were wrong by a large margin in 2004 and 2009. If indeed a favourable election result materialises on May 16, it should help provide much-needed support to business sentiment. And this should help cement the gradual growth recovery we expect in H2 FY 2014-15 (September-March).
“At least as far as large businesses are concerned, there seems to have been a strong frustration with the ‘leadership deficit’ associated with the current Congress-led UPA coalition government, and a big desire for change.” www.live.anz.com (ATI).