Cross-strait conflict remains a real possibility, says ASPI report

SYDNEY - Following the January 2016 elections in Taiwan, Australia needs to put the evolving cross-Strait situation on its strategic radar, according to a new report released today by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).  The report analyses the likely strategic implications of the new DPP Government in Taiwan in terms of cross-strait stability and the possible impact on Australia.

The report finds that the DPP win will not automatically lead to renewed tensions because both sides have a lot to lose. Thus far, Taipei and Beijing are trying to carefully navigate through this uncharted post-election period.
However, cross-strait conflict remains a real possibility, the report says.
”Under President Xi Jinping, China has demonstrated a rather uncompromising approach to territorial disputes, and the status of Taiwan is a declared ‘core interest’ of Beijing,” it says. “China continues to change the cross-strait military balance in its favour, potentially inviting miscalculations and instability. Taiwan is also likely to become more important in the context of growing Sino-US strategic competition.”
Consequently, the study argues that the Taiwan Strait will remain dangerous and that Canberra needs to pay closer attention to the evolving situation.
“Of crucial importance is the question of whether Australia should support its US ally in a future Taiwan contingency. In the event of an unprovoked Chinese attack on Taiwan and subsequent US involvement, it would be difficult for Australia not to be involved.
“Australian decision-makers need to face the reality that in a more contested Asia–Pacific strategic environment, the alliance isn’t à la carte where Australia can pick and choose its engagement.”
The report calls for a comprehensive dialogue between Canberra and Washington to avoid what it calls a future ‘expectation gap’ on the Taiwan issue. As well, Australia should acknowledge Taiwan’s potentially constructive role in regional maritime territorial disputes.
“Canberra should proactively take steps to enhance Taiwan’s regional political and economic integration as a means to contribute to long-term cross-strait stability.” www.aspi.org.au (ATI).