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Banking Outlook. August 2018

August 2, 2018
The Spanish banking industry made profits of 3.106 billion euros in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the losses posted in 2017, which were prompted by the sale of Banco Popular. Cleaning of bank balance sheets is gathering pace, while deleveraging of the private sector is ongoing. The efficiency and profitability of the system have improved in the first quarter.

Monitoring NAFTA with Big Data

August 2, 2018
By means of the media data (GDELT), we can monitor both the coverage and tone of NAFTA considering the main sources of information by country (US, Canada and Mexico). Media coverage increased at key moments during the NAFTA renegotiation process since President Trump’s victory. Negotiation rounds have drawn special interest. In general, media sentiment has been negative.

Spain Regional Watch. Third quarter 2018

August 1, 2018
The maintenance of domestic demand growth and the fiscal impulse will support the growth of the western communities this year. Going forward, the increase in oil price, the exhaustion of the tourism sector, the increase in tariffs worldwide and the uncertainty about economic policy may pose greater risks for some communities.

Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

August 1, 2018
Latin America will grow 1.3% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with considerable heterogeneity across countries. These forecasts are lower than the previous ones, mainly due to the revision of growth in Argentina and Brazil. This adjustment in the two countries could not be compensated by the upward revisions of growth in Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Paraguay.

We expect Banxico to remain on hold

August 1, 2018
With no additional deterioration of inflation risks, and the recent appreciation of the MXN, we expect Banxico to hold rates steady.

Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 31, 2018
The economy is starting to settle into improved performance, with positive surprises. Political tension has reduced, business confidence has improved and private expenditure shows a good performance. As a result, we expect output to grow by 3.6% this year and 3.9% next, more than we forecast in our last report.

Spain | The expansive measures will offset the cyclical recovery of the deficit in 2018

July 30, 2018
The data for the first quarter shows a slight increase in the public accounts. This rate of improvement does not seem sufficient to offset the expansive bias of fiscal policy. This would mean a slowdown in the process of reducing the deficit and the public debt, which increases the vulnerability of the Spanish economy in the medium term.

Turkey Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 30, 2018
Turkish financial assets remain under stress. The level and the duration of adjustment in the economy will depend on the policy reactions in the short term. Inflation reached alarming levels on last year´s loose policies, high inertia and second round effects. Both fiscal policy and monetary policy should complement each other to fight against inflation.

Brexit gets complicated

July 30, 2018
Brexit negotiations are speeding up and they are becoming incredibly complex, both from the technical point of view - how to make each side’s red lines compatible - and the political point of view - how to get the final agreement passed by the UK parliament.

What weapons does China have in the trade war?

July 30, 2018
The trade war between China and the USA finally broke out on 6 July, when the US imposed 25% tariffs on US$34 billion worth of imports from China, to which China responded by applying the same tariff to the value of imports from the US.

Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 28, 2018
With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18

July 28, 2018
Sales remain resilient backed by robust economic growth. Automakers continue to benefit from consumers favoring light-trucks over cars. Higher interest rates and gasoline prices may impact demand through the remaining of the year.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 27 July 2018

July 27, 2018
Highlights: CPMI and IOSCO update report on principles for financial market infrastructures. EBA issues opinion on European Secured Notes and updates CET1 and AT1 instruments. ESAs issue guidance on KID requirements for PRIIPs. HM Treasury issues statutory instrument for a temporary permission regime after Brexit. BoE issues statement on SONIA compliance.

China | What is our expectation of Bilateral Investment Treaty with the EU?

July 27, 2018
Our report analyzes the current situation of the China-EU bilateral investment and investigates the contents and difficulties of BIT negotiations. We expect that the BIT between China and the EU will be a game-changer weapon to help China to end its trade war with the US. Moreover, it will also catalyze structural reforms in China and boost its domestic growth.

U.S. | Lithium and cobalt: Same purpose, different paths

July 27, 2018
Lithium and cobalt are the latest vogue in commodity markets, as evidenced by the significant growth in their prices since 2016.

The ECB reaffirmed its way out

July 27, 2018
No changes in its policy or forward guidance. Slightly more confident on growth and inflation