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Mexico | Investment would promote efficiency of the railway network

February 13, 2019
The current infrastructure does not respond to the needs of its main demanders. New way of measuring railway efficiency in the face of a changing reality. Network model for the calculation of the coherence of the railway network. Railway network does not meet manufacturing needs. Railway incompatibilities point to investment opportunities.

Market Comment | Potential deal to avoid US government shutdown boosts risk assets

February 13, 2019
Positive tone in markets after the announcement of a potential deal that includes some funding for the border in the US. This has somewhat allayed fears over another partial government shutdown ahead of this Friday’s deadline. Optimism on the US-China trade relationship ahead of high-level talks also weighed. On another front, Brexit negotiations continued to be uncertain

Aragon Economic Outlook 2019

February 12, 2019
The economy of Aragon may have grown 2.6% in 2018, and will moderate to 2.4% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020. It will create over 14,000 new jobs by 2020, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. Total employment will be still far from its pre-crisis level. Inclusive growth is a challenge.

Spain Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

February 12, 2019
The recovery of the Spanish economy will carry on in the coming years, although the slowdown in growth continues. GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2019 and by 2% in 2020. In this context, job creation is expected to continue, in an environment of soft adjustment of world growth and growing internal and external uncertainty.

United States Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

February 12, 2019
Although the U.S. maintains significant advantages such as the strongest military, the world’s reserve currency, the largest economy and the highest ranked universities, there are growing concerns that the country is losing the technological race.

Market Comment | The tone in markets improved with US-China trade talks in the spotlight

February 12, 2019
Markets started the week on the front foot after last week’s increase in volatility. US-China trade talks later this week increased the optimism about a potential agreement ahead of the trade truce deadline. US politics are also in the spotlight amid a new potential shutdown. The release of the US CPI, German’s GDP and Brexit negotiations could also be drivers for markets

Latin America Economic Outlook. 1Q19

February 12, 2019
Global slowdown, increased global financial volatility and worsening commodity prospects will limit growth in the region, in addition to idiosyncratic factors. After growing 1.6% in 2018, the region will expand 2.1% in 2019 and 2.4% in 2020.

Is a higher minimum wage good or bad?

February 12, 2019
As with many questions, the answer depends on the context. Few things are better for social progress and welfare than a sustainable rise in wages resulting from increases in productivity, and for growth to be equitable and reach all workers.

Ability and desire

February 11, 2019
Despite the slowdown seen during much of 2017 and consolidated in 2018, the GDP growth rate remained above that observed in the rest of the EMU, and even accelerated in the last quarter of the previous year.

A challenging environment for Latin America

February 11, 2019
Can economic policies contribute to the increase in demand? The scope for expansionary fiscal policies is limited, in some cases due to the high levels of debt and, in other cases, due to the need to comply with fiscal rules, or otherwise undermine their credibility.

Market Comment | Global growth concerns drive markets at the end of the week

February 9, 2019
Financial markets started the week with mild movements but as the week went by, risk-off mood came back driven by increasing concerns over global growth. The State of the Union address in the US did not bring any insight into the border wall stance issue ahead of the Government funding expiration on February 15th. Moreover, Brexit negotiations remain stalled.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 8 February 2019

February 8, 2019
Highlights: FSB issues report on non-bank financial intermediation. ESMA agrees MoUs for no-deal Brexit, and issues statement on the use of UK data in ESMA’s databases. ECB issues statement on liquidity risk analysis, and results for 2018 stress test. Council and EP agree on measures for investment fund market and rules for derivatives. FRB issues CCAR and DFAST scenarios.

The FinTech Universe through the Eyes of the Media and Social Networks

February 8, 2019
FinTech is gaining momentum in financial services due to the important role of technology in reshaping the Financial System. In order to identify the dynamics created by the FinTech ecosystem, we analyse data from the media and social networks.

Banxico stays hawkish; a period of extended monetary policy pause the most likely scenario

February 8, 2019
Banxico did not soften its tone; likely to remain hawkish in the near-term. Banxico unlikely to soften its stance in the near-term but the wording tempered the ready-to-hike disposition of the previous statement. We continue to expect the next move in the monetary policy rate to be down, but not until later in the year.

Market Comment | Fears over global economic slowdown returned to markets

February 8, 2019
After many days of calm, financial markets returned to risk-off mood with a significant drop in developed equity markets amid the resurface of fears over a global economic slowdown. The update of the European Commission economic forecast, which signaled a cut in the euro zone economic growth and inflation rate, was one of the main drivers today in financial markets

Turkey Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

February 7, 2019
Firm policies helped to stabilize Turkish Financial Markets and the economy is re-balancing fast. The economic activity adjustment gained momentum at the end of 2018 but there are early signs of bottoming-out. We expect policymakers stick to sound policies.

Global Economic Risk Outlook. First Quarter 2019

February 7, 2019
The balance of risks has deteriorated on the back of growth concerns in the US and China. A global trade war continues to be relevant despite the current truce, while a resurface of debt tensions in the Eurozone should not be ruled out yet due to high political instability. On a positive note, the U-turn in the Fed’s stance reduces the likelihood of overshooting.

Mexico | Remittances Set Historic Record for Third Consecutive Year with US$33,481 million

February 7, 2019
Of the remittances received by Mexico in 2018, 94.1% came from the U.S., 97.7% were sent by electronic means and 71.7% were disbursed in non-banking institutions. 7 states accounted for half of the remittances that arrived in the country: Michoacán (US$3,393 millon), Jalisco (3,288), Guanajuato (3,046), Mexico (1,903), Oaxaca (1,731), Puebla (1,699) and Guerrero (1,615).

Banxico to begin a period of an extended monetary policy pause

February 7, 2019
Fall in inflation along with lower risks takes further hikes in the near-term off the table. Balance of risks to inflation improved in the intermeeting period with the recent rally in the MXN combined with a larger-than-expected fall in inflation in the first half of January. We expect the next move in the monetary policy rate to be a cut, but not until later in the year.

Market Comment | Uneventful State of the Union address but advance in US-China talks

February 7, 2019
Markets continued to show minor movements as yesterday’s State of the Union address in the US did not bring any insight into the border with Mexico, the main issue to avoid a new shutdown. On another front, the US-China trade relations seems to be evolving positively as he said that a deal is possible while, according to US Treasury Secretary, US-China talks will continue