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Updated: 3 hours 29 min ago

Winter is coming

October 8, 2018
In economics, as in other sciences, history helps us anticipate the shocks that might derail expansion phases such as the current one. Some of the biggest crises have originated with US Federal Reserve rate hikes. This time around, normalisation is being carried out gradually and steadily, with communication geared to avoiding unnecessary scares.

More taxes on banks: no free lunch

October 8, 2018
It is always best to be very careful with changes in taxes. Increases can be dangerous if they hamper growth and job creation, just as reductions can be if they affect the sustainability of the welfare state and equity. So, What is the extent of the effects of an additional tax on banks?

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 5 October 2018

October 5, 2018
Highlights: BCBS publishes Basel III monitoring report. EBA issues report on the impact of the Basel reform. ECB issues macroprudential bulletin. ESMA withdraws some MiFID guidelines and presents its 2019 work programme. US Agencies consult on HVCRE and issue statement on the Bank Secrecy Act.

Spain | Construction activity responds to housing demand

October 4, 2018
Home sales in July declined from the previous month while demand drivers showed more moderate gains in a favourable financial environment. Prices accelerated their growth in 2Q18 and the signing of building permits in June and July showed a higher growth than expected.

Turkey | A big upside surprise on inflation

October 4, 2018
CPI increased 6.3% (mom) in September, significantly higher than our and market expectations (3.9% vs. 3.4%). This leads the annual figure to jump to 24.5% from 17.9% in August. Today’s inflation data shows that pricing behavior is adjusting faster than expected and this could be considered as a “factor affecting inflation requiring further monetary policy tightening”.

Valencian Community Economic Outlook. Second half 2018

October 3, 2018
The economy of Valencian Community grew 3.2% in 2017 and will grow 2.7% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. This will add around 110,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 12.6%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Mexico | Remittances grow 9.1% in August completing 29 consecutive months of growth

October 3, 2018
The dynamics of remittances are explained firstly by the number of transactions recorded, which increased by 5.0%, and secondly by the 3.8% increase in the average amount of remittances. In real terms, remittances grew by 9.9%, mainly due to the exchange rate effect.

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest September

October 3, 2018
Tensions between the US and North Korea remained contained as both parties. However, US-China relations worsened as both countries imposed new tariffs. The US and Canada achieved a new trade deal including Mexico to replace NAFTA. Turkey and Russia agreed to resolve the Idlib dispute in Syria with demilitarized zones. US-Iran relations are still on a worsening track.

Castilla-La Mancha Economic Outlook 2018

October 2, 2018
The economy of Castile-La Mancha grew 2.5% in 2017, but will accelerate to a 2.8% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019, creating around 48,000 new jobs and lowering the unemployment rate to 14.8% during this two-year period. While the pre-crisis GDP per capita will be reached, better and stronger job creation remains the main challenge.

We think Banxico will remain on hold for the rest of the year

October 2, 2018
Stable MXN, well-behaved core inflation and well-anchored mid and long-term inflation expectations mean no more preemptive hikes.

Prisoners in Salzburg

October 1, 2018
Last week’s European summit in Salzburg dealt a reality shock to the British government in its aspirations of obtaining the support of the European leaders for its Brexit negotiation plan. After Salzburg, the prospects of a reasonable agreement are at an all-time low, although it is to be hoped that the situation will improve in the next few months.

Portugal | Growth is upheld, but there are signs of a slowdown

October 1, 2018
Portuguese GDP grew 0.6% t/t in 2Q18, mainly due to the increase in gross capital formation and the improvement in the external sector, and despite the low growth of domestic final consumption. Based on the indicators available so far, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q18 will be approximately 0.3% QoQ SWDA.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 28 September 2018

September 28, 2018
Highlights: TCFD issues first status report. EBA launches 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise. ECB issues guide for on-site inspections and internal models investigations. ESMA issues RST on clearing obligations for intragroup transactions. PRA issues report on financial risks from climate change. US Agencies amend swap margin rule.