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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 6 July 2018

July 6, 2018
BCBS revises the GSIB assessment methodology, and issues technical amendment to NSFR. EBA publishes ITS package for benchmarking exercise. ESMA clarifies clearing obligations for PSAs. CNMV approves Circular on periodic reporting by issuers. PRA consults on proposal for leverage ratio framework. FRB and FDIC consult on resolution plan guidance.

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - June 2018

July 5, 2018
Instability erupted in several cities of Iran over the worsening economic situation. Hardliners began putting pressure on the government and the U.S. strategy to impose sanctions for regime change accelerated. Trump – Kim Jong-Un summit seemed to lift nuclear related risks in Asia. Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki on July 16 will be crucial for several regional issues.

Spain | Home sales up as 2Q18 begins

July 4, 2018
The macroeconomic situation continues to favour home sales. Meanwhile, the issuance of new construction permits in April corrected for some of the growth of the two preceding months, although employment in the sector is still rising. This comes on the heels of a first quarter in which home prices went up in all regions, albeit only modestly in most of them.

Mexico | Monthly remittances exceed US$3 billion for the first time ever

July 4, 2018
May saw US$3,097.7 million in remittances, representing a YoY increase of 19.8%, the biggest increase seen in the past 18 months. The Mother’s Day effect, the favourable economic conditions in the US (unemployment at 3.8%) and the appreciation of the dollar against the peso seen in May are the three factors explaining this all-time record figure for remittances.

Turkey | June inflation reaches a worrying 15.4%

July 3, 2018
Consumer prices increased 2.61% (mom) in June, remarkably higher than expectations. Thus, annual consumer inflation hit 15.4%, the highest level since December 2003, up from 12.2% in May. Assuming no additional negative currency shock, we estimate the year-end inflation to be around 13.5%.

Spain | Productivity and efficiency of the public sector

July 3, 2018
In this paper, the productivity of the public sector in Spain is analyzed comparatively. Although the public sector is not the main cause behind the negative behavior of productivity in Spain, there is ample room for improvement to reach the levels of efficiency and effectiveness presented by the rest of the main peers.

The economic challenges faced by the new Colombian president

July 1, 2018
The new government must solidify its ongoing economic recovery by laying the foundations for better economic performance in the medium term. Growth will no longer depend merely on capital investments and population growth. 48% of the people now working under the table will need to be brought into the formal economy and productivity will have to be increased.

Convergence

July 1, 2018
Generally speaking, a region’s well-being is determined by the percentage of available inputs available and how productive they are. In the first case, some measures include the unemployment rate (what percentage of people who are willing to work do not have a job) or activity (how many of those of working age want to participate in the labour market).

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 29 June 2018

June 29, 2018
EBA consults on guidelines on outsourcing, and issues opinion on banks’ preparation for Brexit. ECB announces methodology to calculate ESTER. ESMA issues opinion on CCPs liquidity risk assessment. BoE published its financial stability report. Finally, FRB published the stress test results (CCAR).

Financial Regulation Outlook. Third quarter 2018

June 27, 2018
1. Finalisation of Basel III: what comes next? 2. Funding in resolution 3. Regulation is coming: pending issues 4. New STS securitisations in Europe 5. Strengthening the Banking Union 6. Adapting the organisation to the digital era 7. U.S. financial regulation: relief and recalibration

The labor share in the service economy

June 26, 2018
Much research has documented a decline in the aggregate labor share in the United States and other countries. Yet, this is not a general phenomenon across industries. In fact, there has been a divergence between services and non-services industries in the United States since 1980.

Completing the Banking Union is a priority

June 25, 2018
Next week’s Euro Summit is a great opportunity for Member States to move ahead with the strengthening of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), many parts of which still remain to be developed. Prominent among these are completing the Banking Union and defining the future role of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

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