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Purchasing financial products online in Spain

June 12, 2018
Purchasing financial products online is modest in Spain: only 9.8% of Internet users buy some financial product through Internet. Industry challenges in this context are conditioned by (digital) customer confidence, data usage awareness and transparency of information.

Turkey: Still high 1Q GDP but already moderating

June 11, 2018
GDP grew by 7.4% (YoY) in 1Q18 above both consensus and our expectation (7% vs. 6%). The acceleration in growth on quarterly basis was surprising (2% vs 1.7% in 4Q), mainly supported by the boost in private consumption and the recovery in investment. We forecast 2018 GDP growth to be 3.5-4.0% as we expect adjustment of the economy to become more obvious from now onwards.

Regulatory reform in the USA: From words to deeds

June 11, 2018
Since Donald Trump took office in 2017, the United States has embarked on a process of easing and recalibration of its financial regulation. While this process will not entail a dismantling of its regulatory framework, it is certainly the largest overhaul made since the last financial crisis.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update 8 June 2018

June 8, 2018
FSB consults on TLAC implementation and publishes review of bank resolution planning. ECB signs MoU with SRB to share information. ESMA publishes risk dashboard. BdE keeps its countercyclical capital buffer unchanged. BoE receives assessment on resolution arrangements. US Agencies issue joint consultation on Volcker Rule.

U.S. | Oil Prices Outlook. Second quarter 2018

June 8, 2018
The geopolitical premium marked the evolution of oil prices in 2Q18. OPEC may decide to boost production to compensate the shortfall left by Iran and Venezuela. Prices will remain supported by robust demand from China, India and the US. We continue to expect convergence to long-term equilibrium as demand growth converges to historical trend and US export capacity expands.

Turkey | CBRT surprised markets on the upside

June 8, 2018
The Central Bank (CBRT) hiked the one-week repo rate by 125 bps to 17.75%, clearly above market expectations (BBVA Research 50bps). With the decision, the CBRT reinforces its stance on inflation worries in the short term and takes a solid step to restore credibility against rapidly worsening inflation expectations.

Country Risk Quarterly Report. Second quarter 2018

June 7, 2018
During May we have seen the first overall increase in CDS spreads since Nov-2016. However, the recent turmoil in EMs has merely impacted on Global Risk Aversion (GRA). Our newly developed indicator of EM FX synchronization indicates that the recent depreciation in EM FX rates has had a relatively low level of synchronization among EMs currencies

Spain | Housing price growth slowed in 1Q18

June 6, 2018
1Q18 ended with a greater increase in home sales than previous quarters, despite the contraction seen in March. This increase encouraged housing prices to rise, although at slower rates and with heightened regional heterogeneity, according to appraisals. Housing investment, for its part, rose sharply in 1Q18.

Murcia Economic Outlook 2018

June 6, 2018
The economy of the Canary Islands grew by 3.3% in 2017, and will continue growing by a further 3.3% in 2018 and by 2.6% in 2019. The region will create around 30,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.

From words to action: Recent regulatory reforms in the U.S.

June 6, 2018
The U.S. has embarked in path to ease its financial regulation. The process includes a revision of certain rules by regulators, and also a major legislative change that provides relief for the industry. Overall, these changes seek to make the framework more efficient. But the process should respect global standards to preserve financial stability and a level playing field.

China | Reignited China-US trade war and its implication on global value chain

June 6, 2018
We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries on the same global value chain.

Mexico | New all-time record for remittances in April: US$2,716.9 million

June 5, 2018
Remittances grew by 17.9% YoY, reaching a new all-time high of US$2,716.9 million, the biggest monthly amount ever received in Mexico.

Mexico faced with global financial volatility

June 5, 2018
The global economy is going through a spell of rising interest rates in the USA, with the dollar strengthening and international oil prices rising. In the past, this combination of events has led to periods of financial turbulence and capital outflows from emerging markets, which Mexico has not been able to avoid.

Spain | Deciding factors in the 2017 economic cycle

June 5, 2018
This watch is evaluating the structural factors that shed light on the cyclical behaviour of the Spanish economy in 2017, estimating how they contributed to the annual growth rate of macroeconomic variables such as GDP or salaries.