Monday, August 20 2018 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 6 hours 23 min ago
Global growth remains on a strong footing at the beginning of 2Q18 despite the high levels of uncertainty, especially coming from trade news. Hard data and sentiment indicators remain solid but with growing differences across areas. Inflation surged in advanced economies on higher commodity prices while monetary policy normalization continues.
A deterioration of inflation risks tips the balance towards a hike
Growth is expected to be around 0.8% in 2Q and the BBVA Research forecast for 2018 remains unchanged (2.9%), although there are still biases. On the one hand, the approval of the PGE18 suggests a more expansive fiscal policy. On the other hand, external uncertainty still persists and, in Spain, the relative one to economic policy has increased.
Amid the growing uncertainty of the global economic scenario, stemming from the potential escalation of tariff increases initiated by the US, the main central banks have launched a crystal-clear message this week: monetary policies are entering a new phase.
The US’ decision, just hours after the G7 summit, not to support its closing joint communiqué reaffirming the need for regulated, open multilateral global trade, may have come as a surprise to many, but it was not really surprising.
EBA issues consultation and opinion regarding SCA and CSC under PSD2. SRB receives final Valuation 3 report on resolution of Banco Popular. BdE adopts a series of guidelines issued by EBA. BoE publishes several policy statements on resolution and MREL. Finally, FRB publishes final rule on limits to concentration risks.
The Asset Purchase Programme will end in December 2018. However, interest rates will remain on hold at least until the summer 2019, later than expected. Macro projections were revised in line with expectations: GDP down in 2018 to 2.1% and inflation up in 2018 and 2019 to 1.7%.
May economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, point to an expected moderation in growth. In particular, all indicators dropped from the previous readings and the market expectations. This suggests that headwinds are weighing on growth, mainly from domestic tightening policy and the unsettled trade skirmishes.
USA, EU and China are the main nodes of the world trade network. 1980-2008 was the most recent period of high dynamism of trade boosted by EM growth, technological and logistic advances and, last but not least, enhanced multilateralism approach. The globalization challenge is to reach a more even distribution of its benefits and protectionism is the wrong policy.
China announced a plan of furthering its long-delayed financial opening to remove restrictions on foreign shareholdings and expand market access. A new round of capital account liberalization also brings more opportunities for two-way capital flows. This watch examines how these new measures can help foreign financial institutions to grow in China and their implications.
The Industrial production (IP) grew by 6.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, slightly above the market consensus of 5.65% in April. Our monthly GDP indicator still nowcasts slightly below 6% yoy growth for 2Q18 as of May. Considering the overheating in the 1Q and the 500bps tightening in last two months, we expect GDP growth to be near 3.5% this year.
The economy of Madrid grew by 3.4% in 2017, and will continue growing at the same pace in 2018, and 2.7% in 2019. The region will create around 156,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.
Cap rate risk premiums can guide the search for attractive CRE investment and lending locations. Vacancy rates, local and national economic data can be used to model cap rate risk premiums. Based on this, San Antonio and Northern New Jersey appear most attractive in the apartment segment.