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Updated: 6 hours 23 min ago

Global | Growth is still holding up despite increasing uncertainty

June 20, 2018
Global growth remains on a strong footing at the beginning of 2Q18 despite the high levels of uncertainty, especially coming from trade news. Hard data and sentiment indicators remain solid but with growing differences across areas. Inflation surged in advanced economies on higher commodity prices while monetary policy normalization continues.

We expect Banxico to hike the policy rate

June 20, 2018
A deterioration of inflation risks tips the balance towards a hike

Spain | Sustained growth, despite internal and external uncertainty

June 19, 2018
Growth is expected to be around 0.8% in 2Q and the BBVA Research forecast for 2018 remains unchanged (2.9%), although there are still biases. On the one hand, the approval of the PGE18 suggests a more expansive fiscal policy. On the other hand, external uncertainty still persists and, in Spain, the relative one to economic policy has increased.

Crystal clear

June 18, 2018
Amid the growing uncertainty of the global economic scenario, stemming from the potential escalation of tariff increases initiated by the US, the main central banks have launched a crystal-clear message this week: monetary policies are entering a new phase.

G7, wounded in action

June 18, 2018
The US’ decision, just hours after the G7 summit, not to support its closing joint communiqué reaffirming the need for regulated, open multilateral global trade, may have come as a surprise to many, but it was not really surprising.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update 15 June 2018

June 15, 2018
EBA issues consultation and opinion regarding SCA and CSC under PSD2. SRB receives final Valuation 3 report on resolution of Banco Popular. BdE adopts a series of guidelines issued by EBA. BoE publishes several policy statements on resolution and MREL. Finally, FRB publishes final rule on limits to concentration risks.

The ECB delivers on QE exit and gives strong guidance on rates

June 15, 2018
The Asset Purchase Programme will end in December 2018. However, interest rates will remain on hold at least until the summer 2019, later than expected. Macro projections were revised in line with expectations: GDP down in 2018 to 2.1% and inflation up in 2018 and 2019 to 1.7%.

China | Growth moderation amid trade risk and domestic deleveraging

June 14, 2018
May economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, point to an expected moderation in growth. In particular, all indicators dropped from the previous readings and the market expectations. This suggests that headwinds are weighing on growth, mainly from domestic tightening policy and the unsettled trade skirmishes.

World Trade at a Crossroads

June 14, 2018
USA, EU and China are the main nodes of the world trade network. 1980-2008 was the most recent period of high dynamism of trade boosted by EM growth, technological and logistic advances and, last but not least, enhanced multilateralism approach. The globalization challenge is to reach a more even distribution of its benefits and protectionism is the wrong policy.

China | What do China’s renewed opening efforts imply for foreign banks?

June 14, 2018
China announced a plan of furthering its long-delayed financial opening to remove restrictions on foreign shareholdings and expand market access. A new round of capital account liberalization also brings more opportunities for two-way capital flows. This watch examines how these new measures can help foreign financial institutions to grow in China and their implications.

Turkey | Still solid activity in April…to decelerate

June 14, 2018
The Industrial production (IP) grew by 6.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, slightly above the market consensus of 5.65% in April. Our monthly GDP indicator still nowcasts slightly below 6% yoy growth for 2Q18 as of May. Considering the overheating in the 1Q and the 500bps tightening in last two months, we expect GDP growth to be near 3.5% this year.

Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2018

June 13, 2018
The economy of Madrid grew by 3.4% in 2017, and will continue growing at the same pace in 2018, and 2.7% in 2019. The region will create around 156,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.

U.S. | Geographic relative CRE attractiveness index

June 13, 2018
Cap rate risk premiums can guide the search for attractive CRE investment and lending locations. Vacancy rates, local and national economic data can be used to model cap rate risk premiums. Based on this, San Antonio and Northern New Jersey appear most attractive in the apartment segment.

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