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Updated: 10 hours 42 min ago

Turkey | Inflation eased on core prices

March 4, 2019
Consumer prices rose by 0.16% in February lower than the consensus but higher than our estimate (0.4% vs. -0.3%). Thus, annual consumer inflation slowed down to 19.7% from 20.4% in January. We expect the inflation stay near 20% till June and end the year at 14.5% on favorable base effects, deeper negative output gap and stabilized currency.

Economic tension remains unresolved

March 4, 2019
One situation that is often used in works of fiction is the existence of an underlying, unresolved tension between two of the characters, let’s say dealing with feelings, which goes on to affect the development of the plot.

Eurozone | Weakness persists due global headwinds weigh on export orders and industry

March 2, 2019
The hard data up to December were mixed. We saw industrial production continue to decline and exports continue to recover. Also on the positive side, confidence seems to have stopped its downward trend in February. Because of all this our MICA estimates that Eurozone growth for 1Q19 will maintain at around 0.2% q/q.

Market Comment | Positive economic data boost core yields this week

March 2, 2019
Financial markets ended the week with a slightly risk-on mood amid the release of upbeat economic data in the main economies. Core yields increased sharply without penalizing equity markets. Apart from economic data, the suspension of the rise in US tariffs on Chinese goods and the "patient" Fed were this week’s main drivers

Global | Slowdown continued in December but a possible recovery in 1Q19 seems likely

March 1, 2019
Global growth saw a slight sequential pick up in 4Q18 (BBVA-GAIN: 0.8% QoQ), signaling stabilization, but still at weak levels and trending lower. Eurozone and China continue to lose steam, while the US shows early signs of stress. Slowdown led by industry while services remain resilient. The later faces rising risk of spillover effect. Risks remain tilted to the downside.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 1 March 2019

March 1, 2019
Highlights: ESMA to recognise UK CSD post Brexit. ECB issues feedback on ESTER’s consultation. EBA issues valuation handbook for resolution, and consults CRM for advanced IRB models. EU Parliament and Council agree many initiatives. BoE, FCA and CFTC issue statement on post-Brexit derivatives clearing and trading. US Agencies consult on amendments to the Volcker rule.

Market Comment | Core yields have continued to rise amid the improvement of economic data

March 1, 2019
Financial markets remained calm with full attention on the release of encouraging economic data for the US and EZ that have allowed core yields to continue increasing. Meanwhile in trade, the US has announced the official suspension of the increase in US tariffs on Chinese products planned for Friday, but it is unknown how long the suspension will last.

Mexico | Banxico’s monetary policy pause will be short-lived

March 1, 2019
We expect Banxico to cut rates two times this year, we do not rule out three rate cuts.

Uruguay | Global and Uruguay Outlook 1Q19

February 28, 2019
We maintain our growth forecast for Uruguay at 1.3% in 2019 and we revised it downwards in 2020 to 1.9% (before 2.2%). An environment of lower global growth, in Argentina and Brazil, as well as the lack of definition of the beginning of the third pulp mill construction will determine a moderate growth in the next two years.

Market Comment | Economic data in the US boosted core yields

February 28, 2019
The positive tone in markets seemed to fade somewhat; however, economic indicators in the US, which were above expectations, weighed on core yields. Meanwhile, the second day of Powell’s address continued to draw investors’ attention. On another front, the US and North Korea met today while India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions have had a muted impact in the markets, so far

Valencian Community Economic Outlook. First half 2019

February 27, 2019
The economy of Valencian Community grew 2.5% in 2018 and will grow 2.3% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. This will add around 75,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 11.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge. However, measures must be promoted so that the recovery may be inclusive.

Market Comment | Powell address reaffirmed the "patient" shift in Fed’s policy stance

February 27, 2019
Mild movements in markets with all eyes on Powell’s testimony at the US Senate today. With his remarks, Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s decision to shift to a “patient” policy stance. Meanwhile in Europe, the latest reports that pointed to May’s willingness to seek a delay in the deadline if her Brexit plan is not approved by mid-March, have boosted the GBP.

Market Comment | Powell address reaffirmed the "patient" shift in Fed’s policy stance

February 27, 2019
Mild movements in markets with all eyes on Powell’s testimony at the US Senate today. With his remarks, Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s decision to shift to a “patient” policy stance. Meanwhile in Europe, the latest reports that pointed to May’s willingness to seek a delay in the deadline if her Brexit plan is not approved by mid-March, have boosted the GBP.

China | Gauging the impact of US tech war on China: an input-output table analysis

February 26, 2019
Although the US-China tariff war is likely to come to an end soon, a tech war between these two economic is looming large. In this report, we try to quantify to what extent that China-US tech war will drag on Chinese economic growth based on input-output table analysis by means of OECD TiVA input-output database, as this method better captures the inter-sector linkages.

U.S. Economic Outlook. February 2019

February 26, 2019
GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Risk of recession remains elevated. Fed to delay raising rates until 4Q19; operational framework and balance sheet strategy adjusted. Labor market conditions remain auspicious. Core inflation to remain stable, modest rebound in energy prices to lift headline. 10-year Treasury to follow shallower path.

Market Comment | Positive mood remained in markets ahead of an eventful week

February 26, 2019
Positive tone in financial markets given the progress on trade talks. Following last Friday’s Trump-Liu He meeting, the extension of trade negotiations through the weekend and the delay of the March 1st trade truce deadline weighed on markets. This week the Fed’s Powell address will be key, while Brexit developments and economic indicators could be drivers for markets

Pause and end of cycle

February 25, 2019
Over the recent weeks there has been a major shift in the tone of central banks. The common theme of communications from different jurisdictions is one of caution and prudence.

Automobiles: Regulatory Changes and Demand

February 25, 2019
Did you buy an automobile in 2018? If so, was this a decision you'd considered in advance? Or were you encouraged to do so by ads from manufacturers and distributors with eye-catching discounts, driven by the new emissions approval cycle known as WLTP, which came into force in September?

Economic Agenda 2019 Mexico - United States

February 23, 2019
This Agenda presents the diffusion calendar for 2019 of economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events of Mexico and the United States; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Economic Forum, World Bank and International Monetary Fund; electoral calendar.

Market Comment | Trade talks and Central Banks kept the market’s attention this week

February 23, 2019
Financial markets showed slight movements in the week; however, the positive sentiment remains pending details on the ongoing trade negotiations between US and China. A memorandum of Understandings is expected, which could favor an extension of the deadline (March 1st). On another front, the release of the ECB and FOMC minutes were also in the limelight this week

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