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Housing and inequality

August 27, 2018
There is growing concern about inequality in the developed economies. Now that we are seeing a recovery in the Spanish property sector, it is worth reflecting on the role that trends in the housing market have played and may play in widening or narrowing differences among people’s income and wealth.

The costs of Trump’s protectionism

August 27, 2018
The brief history of Trump’s protectionism has been an eventful one. In the first year of his term the US focused on the renegotiation of NAFTA, which is currently on hold. In his second year concentrated efforts above all on measures and threats against China, which have intensified to the point where he has threatened to extend the measures to all imports from the China.

U.S. | Mission Impossible: NAIRU Fallout & the Unobservables

August 25, 2018
Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium sets policy course for current normalization cycle.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 24 August 2018

August 24, 2018
BIS issues consultation on governance arrangements for OTC derivatives data. ESMA issues technical standards on disclosure for securitisations. ECB updates list of supervised entities. UK Treasury issues Statutory Instruments to adapt DGS and CRR after Brexit. US Agencies issue interim rule on the treatment of municipal securities for the purpose of LCR.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. August 2018

August 24, 2018
New stock exchange begins trading. Results of the performance evaluation of commercial banks. Housing construction projects increased by 3% in July. The easing of global trade tensions paves the way for gains for domestic assets given the temporary reduction in idiosyncratic risks.

Spain | Downward bias in economic growth with high internal and external uncertainty

August 20, 2018
After the surprisingly disappointing results in 2Q, the Spanish economy is set to record quarterly growth of 0.7% in 3Q. This, together with the increase of risks and its probability of materialization has meant a downward bias in the 2018 growth forecasts projected by BBVA Research (2.9%).

The path towards the autonomous car

August 20, 2018
Although interest in autonomous vehicles has always accompanied the development of the motor car, their deployment has never been so near. First and foremost because the technology is already available. Secondly, because the potential benefits of the establishment of autonomous mobility pool the interests of manufacturers, consumers and the public sector alike.

Mexico Regional Sectoral Outlook. First half 2018

August 18, 2018
The service sector contributed 92.3% to Mexico’s GDP growth. The manufacturing industry regained its dynamism in the second half of 2017 (2H17) and has been a constant subject for debate with the renegotiation of NAFTA.

U.S. Economic Outlook. August 2018

August 17, 2018
Incoming data consistent with baseline of high growth and inflation in 2018 & 2019. There was no change to FOMC view on the level of accommodation, suggesting that they remain comfortable with further rates increases and additional balance sheet normalization.

Colombia | GDP growth second quarter 2018

August 16, 2018
In the second quarter the economy grew by 2.5% (adjusted for seasonality and business days), close to the 2.6% posted for the first quarter. Activity was stimulated by the hiring of professional and scientific services (7.6% annually), the public sector (4.8%) and agro (4.7%). Industry figures foreshadow stronger private consumption.

Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

August 16, 2018
In the first half of the year the economy grew by 2.1% relative to the first half of 2017. Inflation: abating in 2018, the spike in June-July will be only temporary. The easing of global trade tensions paves the way for gains for domestic assets given the temporary reduction in idiosyncratic risks.