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Updated: 6 hours 23 min ago

The economic challenges faced by the new Colombian president

July 1, 2018
The new government must solidify its ongoing economic recovery by laying the foundations for better economic performance in the medium term. Growth will no longer depend merely on capital investments and population growth. 48% of the people now working under the table will need to be brought into the formal economy and productivity will have to be increased.

Convergence

July 1, 2018
Generally speaking, a region’s well-being is determined by the percentage of available inputs available and how productive they are. In the first case, some measures include the unemployment rate (what percentage of people who are willing to work do not have a job) or activity (how many of those of working age want to participate in the labour market).

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 29 June 2018

June 29, 2018
EBA consults on guidelines on outsourcing, and issues opinion on banks’ preparation for Brexit. ECB announces methodology to calculate ESTER. ESMA issues opinion on CCPs liquidity risk assessment. BoE published its financial stability report. Finally, FRB published the stress test results (CCAR).

Financial Regulation Outlook. Third quarter 2018

June 27, 2018
1. Finalisation of Basel III: what comes next? 2. Funding in resolution 3. Regulation is coming: pending issues 4. New STS securitisations in Europe 5. Strengthening the Banking Union 6. Adapting the organisation to the digital era 7. U.S. financial regulation: relief and recalibration

The labor share in the service economy

June 26, 2018
Much research has documented a decline in the aggregate labor share in the United States and other countries. Yet, this is not a general phenomenon across industries. In fact, there has been a divergence between services and non-services industries in the United States since 1980.

Completing the Banking Union is a priority

June 25, 2018
Next week’s Euro Summit is a great opportunity for Member States to move ahead with the strengthening of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), many parts of which still remain to be developed. Prominent among these are completing the Banking Union and defining the future role of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Eurozone | Growth moderation has continued in Q2 and headline inflation has shot up

June 23, 2018
The Eurozone could grow at about 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter after a similar figure in 1Q18, according to our BBVA-MICA model. This poses a downward bias to our 2.3% growth forecast for 2018. Inflation accelerated rapidly in May (1.9%) due to higher commodity prices and the euro depreciation, but the core component has progressed as expected to 1.3%.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 22 June 2018

June 22, 2018
Basel Committee issues progress report on Risk Data Aggregation. EP adopts internal position on banking package (CRD V). EBA publishes annual report, and issues a consultation on the conditions that institutions need to calculate K-IRB. In the USA, FRB publishes results from supervisory stress tests, and the SEC publishes a draft strategic plan.

Deepening EMU to create opportunities and increase competitiveness and growth in the EU

June 22, 2018
Despite the progress in improving the governance in the last years, the present architecture of EMU is not enough to deal properly with future crisis and face the challenges of the on-going digital revolution. A genuine monetary, fiscal, banking and economic union, with a non-constrained interaction between monetary and fiscal policies.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. June 2018

June 22, 2018
Domestic sources of financing supported the non-financial private sector. Housing prices rose by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2018. The prospect of a long drawn-out renegotiation of NAFTA leads to negative differentiation of domestic assets. Incorporation of new rating agencies. Banco de México: consultation on subordinated bonds.

The use of cash and its determinants

June 22, 2018
The digital revolution is leading to an increased use of electronic payment instruments; however, cash is still used in 79% of retail payments. This note analyses the factors driving the use of cash for payments across EU countries classified in four categories: access to cash and banking products, degree of digitalisation, macroeconomic environment and cultural factors.

Portugal | The slowdown in GDP growth continued in 2Q18

June 21, 2018
Portugal’s GDP grew by 0.4% QoQ in 1Q18, 0.3 pp less than the growth seen in the previous quarter and that forecast by BBVA Research. Domestic demand continues to grow strongly, in contrast with the recent weakness seen in exports, which have been affected by the reduced thrust of the euro zone economy. BBVA Research estimates that growth in 2Q18 will be around 0.3% QoQ.

United States Economic Outlook. June 2018

June 21, 2018
Incoming data reaffirms our baseline scenario of moderate to high GDP growth and higher inflation in 2018 & 2019. Federal Reserve poised to raise rates twice in the second half of the year and possibly three times in 2019. We continue to expect above average growth in employment which will push the unemployment rate to 3.6% by 2019.

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