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Market Comment | Increasing trade concerns ahead of G-20 summit

November 28, 2018
Increasing trade fears among investors ahead of Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit as US President Trump threatened to go further with tariffs on Chinese imports unless China opens its markets to competition from US companies.

Banking Outlook. November 2018

November 27, 2018
Net profit in the first half of 2018 was 6,654 million euros compared with losses of 6,170 million in the first semester of 2017, period in which the resolution of Popular had an impact. Defaulting within the system as well as the deleveraging of the private sector continues. The system’s efficiency and profitability improved in the first half of the year compared to 2017.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. November 2018

November 27, 2018
Among the various types of risk that the financial system is currently facing is that of cyber-attacks. The national producer price index for the construction sector increased by 8.1% in the third quarter of 2018, but we expect that at year-end 2019 the increase will have slowed to below 5% on an annual basis.

Market Comment | Risk assets recovered at the start of the week

November 27, 2018
Financial markets seemed to recover on the back of positive news on Brexit negotiations, Italy’s budget plan and a rebound in oil prices. The Xi-Trump talks at the G-20 leaders’ meeting later this week will be key for investors.

Are Mexican bank commissions high?

November 27, 2018
In the past few days the bill introduced by Senator Ricardo Monreal aimed at prohibiting certain bank commissions has led to intense, and in my view healthy, debate as to whether or not bank commissions are too high and if so what is to be done about it. I have to declare an interest, since I work in a bank, but here are my views.

Brexit: the Battles Yet to Come

November 26, 2018
It seems that we are into a crucial moment in the drafting of the Brexit agreement with the extraordinary meeting scheduled for this weekend, which should serve to approve the withdrawal deal and the political declaration that will define the future relationship. Yet, even the agreement has not yet been finalised, the likely success of the summit is just one more step.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 23 November 2018

November 23, 2018
Highlights: SRB issues MREL policy for banks without resolution colleges. EBA issues RTS on the specification of downturns for the IRB approach. ESMA issues statement regarding Brexit and CCPs. FSB issues reports on correspondent banking, infrastructure finance, and OTC derivatives. BdE updates list of systemically important institutions. CFTC approves its Margin Rule.

Mexico Real Estate Outlook. Second half 2018

November 23, 2018
The GDP of construction closed 2017 with a fall of 1.1% in the annual rate. This is a result of the 10% decline in civil works and the slowdown in building that only improved 0.4%, both in annual terms. However, for the second quarter of 2018, the construction sector has an accumulated advance of 2%.

Mexico | Inflation is on a clear downward trend as expected

November 23, 2018
Headline inflation increased 0.61% FoF in the first fortnight of November, with a slightly higher-than-anticipated 0.19% FoF rise in core inflation.

Eurozone | Growth to recover in 4Q18, but concerns about the slowdown are growing

November 22, 2018
EZ 3Q GDP growth slowed down by 0.2pp (more than expected) to 0.2% QoQ, with a negative surprise in Germany, partly due to the impact from new autos regulation, and stagnation in Italy. Our models predict growth at around 0.3% for 4Q, which implies small downward bias to our forecast for this year and next. Uncertainty surrounding Brexit and Italy has increased markedly.

Argentina | Financing the infrastructure gap

November 22, 2018
Budgetary constraints in the public sector and the poor development of the financial system make it convenient to involve the private sector in investment in infrastructure. The regulatory framework mitigates risks but does not completely isolate the effects of country risk volatility, knowledge about past corruption and lack of confidence in management.

Latin America: Uncertainty grips large countries

November 22, 2018
The recovery of growth in Latin America continues to be very uneven. We are simultaneously dealing with the impact of the Argentine exchange rate crisis, the uncertainty generated by the reforms of the new government in Brazil and the mixed news coming out of Mexico. By contrast, the Andean countries are accelerating thanks to the recovery of internal demand.

China | RMB exchange rate outlook under the trade war threat

November 21, 2018
RMB exchange rate is on its second wave of depreciation since the devaluation in August 2015. Escalating trade war, economic slowdown and divergence of US and China’s monetary policy contributed to the depreciation. The authorities' attitude has been from “ride-on-the-wave” to “lean-against-the-wind” and RMB outlook is hinging on the meeting between Trump and Xi in G20.

Mexico | 1H November CPI HoH forecast: annual headline inflation likely to drop further

November 21, 2018
We expect a headline inflation print of 0.65% HoH in the first fortnight of November, translating into a 4.60% YoY number, and core inflation to post an increase of 0.15% HoH, 3.59% YoY.

Presentation Catalonia Economic Outlook. Second half 2018

November 19, 2018
Catalonia’s GDP grew by 3.3% in 2017, and it is hoped that it will rise by 2.5% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. 130,000 jobs will be created, and the unemployment rate will fall to 10%. In the absence of uncertainty, investment in equipment and employment will have increased growth.