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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 10 August 2018

August 10, 2018
FSB issued consultation on the clearing of OTC derivatives, and a report on CCP interdependencies. SRB issued non-confidential version of the “valuation 3” report for the resolution of Banco Popular. EBA updated information to identify GSIIs. FCA consults on the role and tools of the Global Financial Innovation Network.

Presentation Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

August 10, 2018
The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for 2018; no change for 2019.

Mexico | Remittances increased by 23.1% in June and have reached 3.141 billion dollars

August 8, 2018
Tijuana, Guadalajara, Puebla, Morelia, and Culiacán were the municipalities that received the most sizeable remittance totals in the first half of 2018, of which Guadalajara and Morelia were notable for exhibiting YoY growth rates of 22.1% and 25.8% respectively.

Online financial products and Literary Realism

August 6, 2018
In talking about the current scenario of online sign-ups for financial products in Spain, we could refer to the lines of the poet Ramón de Campoamor, one of the exponents of Literary Realism: “it all depends on the colour / of the glass through which we look”.

Mexico | Considerations on AMLO’s four energy proposals

August 4, 2018
The next federal administration’s energy policy will be a key factor influencing economic growth, the fiscal balance, investment and the transition to an energy model more geared towards renewables.

Turkey | Lower-than-expected July CPI on food

August 3, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.55% (mom) in July below our estimate and market consensus (0.9% vs. 1%), leading the annual figure to rise to 15.85% from 15.39% in June. The downside surprise came from the lower food inflation than our expectation, while the worsening in core inflation continued as annual core inflation reached 15.1%.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 3 August 2018

August 3, 2018
IOSCO issues recommendations for trading venues. EBA issues RTS on securitisation, and home-host cooperation under PSD2. It also issues a report on the functioning of resolution colleges. ESMA publishes findings of peer review for UCITS. US Treasury issues report on Fintechs. OCC starts accepting applications from Fintechs.

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - July 2018

August 3, 2018
In regional terms, tensions held stable in Europe, while they rose in Eastern Europe. The situation in Morocco and Israel sparked instability in the Middle East. Both in Latin America and Asia, social unrest remains low.

United States Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

August 3, 2018
In recent months, concerns surrounding the financial health of the business sector have been on the rise. In particular, market participants are worried that higher price pressures, faster monetary policy normalization, and a trade war, amid stretched valuations, could trigger a significant decline in risk appetite.

Banking Outlook. August 2018

August 2, 2018
The Spanish banking industry made profits of 3.106 billion euros in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the losses posted in 2017, which were prompted by the sale of Banco Popular. Cleaning of bank balance sheets is gathering pace, while deleveraging of the private sector is ongoing. The efficiency and profitability of the system have improved in the first quarter.

Monitoring NAFTA with Big Data

August 2, 2018
By means of the media data (GDELT), we can monitor both the coverage and tone of NAFTA considering the main sources of information by country (US, Canada and Mexico). Media coverage increased at key moments during the NAFTA renegotiation process since President Trump’s victory. Negotiation rounds have drawn special interest. In general, media sentiment has been negative.

Spain Regional Watch. Third quarter 2018

August 1, 2018
The maintenance of domestic demand growth and the fiscal impulse will support the growth of the western communities this year. Going forward, the increase in oil price, the exhaustion of the tourism sector, the increase in tariffs worldwide and the uncertainty about economic policy may pose greater risks for some communities.