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Updated: 6 hours 23 min ago

China | What will be the country’s weapons in the trade war arsenal?

July 12, 2018
After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.

La Rioja Economic Outlook 2018

July 11, 2018
The economy of La Rioja grew by 1.8% in 2017, and will accelerate to 2.6% in 2018 and 2019. The region will create around 4,500 new jobs by the end of 2019, although the likelihood of some of the risk to this scenario has grown.

Our own new glasses to look into the future: Digital trends in BBVA Research

July 11, 2018
The ability to anticipate disruptive changes is key to business survival. Although it is impossible to predict the future, forecasting methods and techniques can help to identify such changes early on. BBVA Research has developed a methodology to spot potential future scenarios for the financial industry so that it can serve as a tool to support strategic decision-making.

Mexico | The fiscal challenges facing the new administration

July 10, 2018
The next government will be faced with major challenges on the fiscal front. First it has to be said that the fact that the future prime minister and his chosen finance minister made it clear in their first messages that they are going to propose fiscal years resulting in primary fiscal surpluses.

Peru | The BCRP and the economic cycle- the end of monetary policy rate reductions?

July 9, 2018
Between May 2017 and March 2018, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) cut the benchmark rate by 1.5% (from 4.25% to 2.75%), highlighting the expansive nature of the country's monetary policy. Nevertheless, we expect this rate reduction process to have concluded and that from the second half of 2019, the BCRP will begin to increase rates toward a more neutral level.

Tiki-taka at the summit

July 9, 2018
The recent European summit of Heads of State and Government focused on discussing the huge problem of illegal immigration to Europe, devoting very little time to discussing what just a few weeks ago was supposed to be the central theme of this meeting: the deepening of the monetary union.

The current expansion of the Spanish Economy

July 7, 2018
Since 2014, Spain has been growing at rates higher than those of most other European countries. During these years, Spain has recovered the competitiveness lost before the crisis. Inflation, unit labour costs and mark-ups have performed better than in the euro area as a whole, resulting in strong export growth. In 2017, exports were 35 per cent above the 2007 levels.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 6 July 2018

July 6, 2018
BCBS revises the GSIB assessment methodology, and issues technical amendment to NSFR. EBA publishes ITS package for benchmarking exercise. ESMA clarifies clearing obligations for PSAs. CNMV approves Circular on periodic reporting by issuers. PRA consults on proposal for leverage ratio framework. FRB and FDIC consult on resolution plan guidance.

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - June 2018

July 5, 2018
Instability erupted in several cities of Iran over the worsening economic situation. Hardliners began putting pressure on the government and the U.S. strategy to impose sanctions for regime change accelerated. Trump – Kim Jong-Un summit seemed to lift nuclear related risks in Asia. Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki on July 16 will be crucial for several regional issues.

Spain | Home sales up as 2Q18 begins

July 4, 2018
The macroeconomic situation continues to favour home sales. Meanwhile, the issuance of new construction permits in April corrected for some of the growth of the two preceding months, although employment in the sector is still rising. This comes on the heels of a first quarter in which home prices went up in all regions, albeit only modestly in most of them.

Mexico | Monthly remittances exceed US$3 billion for the first time ever

July 4, 2018
May saw US$3,097.7 million in remittances, representing a YoY increase of 19.8%, the biggest increase seen in the past 18 months. The Mother’s Day effect, the favourable economic conditions in the US (unemployment at 3.8%) and the appreciation of the dollar against the peso seen in May are the three factors explaining this all-time record figure for remittances.

Turkey | June inflation reaches a worrying 15.4%

July 3, 2018
Consumer prices increased 2.61% (mom) in June, remarkably higher than expectations. Thus, annual consumer inflation hit 15.4%, the highest level since December 2003, up from 12.2% in May. Assuming no additional negative currency shock, we estimate the year-end inflation to be around 13.5%.

Spain | Productivity and efficiency of the public sector

July 3, 2018
In this paper, the productivity of the public sector in Spain is analyzed comparatively. Although the public sector is not the main cause behind the negative behavior of productivity in Spain, there is ample room for improvement to reach the levels of efficiency and effectiveness presented by the rest of the main peers.

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