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Updated: 40 min 29 sec ago

Turkey: Sharp contraction in Industrial Production (IP)

January 14, 2019
IP fell by 6.5% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in November, disappointing the expectations (BBVA: -5.8%, Consensus: -5.4%). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a contraction of 1.6% yoy growth in December (with 32% info), which is still consistent with our 3% 2018 GDP growth estimate but with some downside risks. We maintain our 2019 GDP growth forecast at 1%.

Digital transformation and competition in the financial sector

January 14, 2019
Digital transformation has opened the financial services market to new kinds of providers with great disruptive potential, including big technology companies. This article explores how the scope of that integration is conditioned by regulation, data access rules and competition policy.

Fanning and damping

January 14, 2019
China’s economy focuses world attention, both because of the size it has attained in the past few decades of rapid growth and in view of the unique combination of (ever less) centrally planned and (ever more) market-based economy that has succeeded in lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

U.S. Housing Outlook 2019

January 12, 2019
Despite lower affordability, demographic trends will continue to support housing demand. Home price appreciation will decline but remain above inflation in the short- to mid-term. Tighter financial conditions will balance some of the regional disparities built up over the last decade.

Market Comment | Financial markets signal appetite for risk assets during the week

January 12, 2019
Positive tone in financial markets during the second week of 2019. Last Friday strong US jobs data, and the three-day US-China trade talks helped risk assets to recover from the sharp fall in the final part of 2018. Furthermore, the release of the ECB and FOMC minutes along with plenty of Central Bank officers’ speeches were in focus.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 11 January 2018

January 11, 2019
Highlights: EBA issues its assessment on consistency of internal models. ECB issues recommendation on dividend policy. ESAs issue a report on sandboxes. EBA issues a report on crypto-assets and its risk dashboard. EC issues communication on STS under CMU. ESMA issues RTS on supervisory cooperation for securitization. FRB consults on company run stress testing requirements.

Infographic Colombia Promoting financial development in the context of Middle-Income Trap

January 11, 2019
Between 2011 and 2017, the economy has grown on average 3.8% annually, while the LAC average is 1.7%

Market Comment | USD and US yields extended decline after Fed minutes

January 11, 2019
Calm in financial markets after US-China trade talks ended yesterday without further details on key issues, but with China’s commitment to import more products from the US. Today’s lower-than-expected inflation figures in China added more doubts about the economic growth. The release of minutes from the ECB and the FOMC’s December meetings kept investors’ attention

Mexico | Actions to boost the financial sector point in the right direction

January 11, 2019
The objectives of the proposals are: a) to deepen both the banking sector and the stock market, b) to have more efficient payment metods for the population and, c) in general, to make more efficient the task of capturing and promoting savings, as well as channeling it to productive investment.

Infographic Peru Promoting financial development in the context of Middle-Income Trap

January 11, 2019
Between 2011 and 2017, the economy has grown on average 4.8% annually, while the LAC average is 1.7%

Market Comment | Positive mood in financial markets with focus on today’s Fed minutes

January 10, 2019
The positive tone in financial markets continued on the back of optimism regarding the US-China trade talks which ended today with positive remarks by both parties. Apart from this, all eyes are on the release of the December FOMC meeting minutes later today, as more Fed members added their voices to the more dovish stance.

Infographic Mexico Promoting financial development in the context of Middle-Income Trap

January 10, 2019
Between 2011 and 2017, the economy has grown on average 2.6% annually, while the LAC average is 1.7%

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest December 2018

January 9, 2019
U.S. President Trump announced that Washington would pull all of its troops out of Syria. In Europe, 'Yellow vests' protests movement sharply rose in France and spilled over into other European countries, increasing concerns on social stability. The trade truce between China and the U.S. and positive developments in the Korean Peninsula created a calm environment in Asia.

Market Comment | Trade progress allows markets to recover further

January 9, 2019
Markets started the week in a positive mood as fresh news at the end of last week still weighed this week. The sharp rebound in risk asset prices last Friday was backed by hopes of easing trade frictions between China and the US (which have extended today), strong US jobs data, actions from China’s central bank, and especially due to patience showed in Powell’s remarks.

Digital transformation and finance sector competition

January 8, 2019
Digital transformation has opened the financial services market to new kinds of providers with great disruptive potential, including big technology companies. This article explores how the scope of that integration is conditioned by regulation, data access rules and competition policy.

This year will be different

January 8, 2019
A few years ago, Reinhart and Rogoff, two renowned academics, wrote about how in every crisis economists, politicians and the rest of the world seek to convince us that this time the imbalances that end up leading to crisis are not really imbalances as such.

Risks facing the Spanish economy in 2019

January 8, 2019
The Spanish economy will have grown between 0.4% and 0.5% less in 2018 than in 2017 (+3%), with indications that the slowdown will continue in 2019, in a context of increased uncertainty.

Market Comment | Risk aversion wanes today, backed by US Payrolls and trade talks

January 5, 2019
Markets started 2019 on the wrong foot, but the market mood improved as the week went by. Doubts about the global slowdown were fed by the release of worsening confidence data in China and in the US. However, today’s fresh news about the trade tensions and the release of job figures in the US totally offset the sluggish data in the EZ, and improved the situation.

Market Comment | Fears of slowdown extend risk aversion mood

January 4, 2019
Risk aversion mood persisted today as fears of a global slowdown increased. Apple’s reduced revenue outlook, which it attributed largely to China’s slowdown, as well as trade tensions added to yesterday’s release of disappointing Chinese confidence data. Furthermore, US manufacturing confidence data, at its lowest in two years, also point in this direction

Infographic Argentina Promoting financial development in the context of Middle-Income Trap

January 3, 2019
Between 2011 and 2017, the economy has grown on average 1.2% annually, while the LAC average is 1.7%

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