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Valencian Community Economic Outlook. First half 2019

February 27, 2019
The economy of Valencian Community grew 2.5% in 2018 and will grow 2.3% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. This will add around 75,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 11.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge. However, measures must be promoted so that the recovery may be inclusive.

Market Comment | Powell address reaffirmed the "patient" shift in Fed’s policy stance

February 27, 2019
Mild movements in markets with all eyes on Powell’s testimony at the US Senate today. With his remarks, Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s decision to shift to a “patient” policy stance. Meanwhile in Europe, the latest reports that pointed to May’s willingness to seek a delay in the deadline if her Brexit plan is not approved by mid-March, have boosted the GBP.

Market Comment | Powell address reaffirmed the "patient" shift in Fed’s policy stance

February 27, 2019
Mild movements in markets with all eyes on Powell’s testimony at the US Senate today. With his remarks, Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s decision to shift to a “patient” policy stance. Meanwhile in Europe, the latest reports that pointed to May’s willingness to seek a delay in the deadline if her Brexit plan is not approved by mid-March, have boosted the GBP.

China | Gauging the impact of US tech war on China: an input-output table analysis

February 26, 2019
Although the US-China tariff war is likely to come to an end soon, a tech war between these two economic is looming large. In this report, we try to quantify to what extent that China-US tech war will drag on Chinese economic growth based on input-output table analysis by means of OECD TiVA input-output database, as this method better captures the inter-sector linkages.

U.S. Economic Outlook. February 2019

February 26, 2019
GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Risk of recession remains elevated. Fed to delay raising rates until 4Q19; operational framework and balance sheet strategy adjusted. Labor market conditions remain auspicious. Core inflation to remain stable, modest rebound in energy prices to lift headline. 10-year Treasury to follow shallower path.

Market Comment | Positive mood remained in markets ahead of an eventful week

February 26, 2019
Positive tone in financial markets given the progress on trade talks. Following last Friday’s Trump-Liu He meeting, the extension of trade negotiations through the weekend and the delay of the March 1st trade truce deadline weighed on markets. This week the Fed’s Powell address will be key, while Brexit developments and economic indicators could be drivers for markets

Pause and end of cycle

February 25, 2019
Over the recent weeks there has been a major shift in the tone of central banks. The common theme of communications from different jurisdictions is one of caution and prudence.

Automobiles: Regulatory Changes and Demand

February 25, 2019
Did you buy an automobile in 2018? If so, was this a decision you'd considered in advance? Or were you encouraged to do so by ads from manufacturers and distributors with eye-catching discounts, driven by the new emissions approval cycle known as WLTP, which came into force in September?

Economic Agenda 2019 Mexico - United States

February 23, 2019
This Agenda presents the diffusion calendar for 2019 of economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events of Mexico and the United States; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Economic Forum, World Bank and International Monetary Fund; electoral calendar.

Market Comment | Trade talks and Central Banks kept the market’s attention this week

February 23, 2019
Financial markets showed slight movements in the week; however, the positive sentiment remains pending details on the ongoing trade negotiations between US and China. A memorandum of Understandings is expected, which could favor an extension of the deadline (March 1st). On another front, the release of the ECB and FOMC minutes were also in the limelight this week

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 22 February 2019

February 22, 2019
Highlights: Spanish Congress approves law regarding mortgage loans. ESMA will recognise UK CCPs in a no-deal Brexit. SRB issues framework for valuation in resolution. ECB publishes feedback on EONIA transition to ESTER. EBA releases consumer trends report. FRB extends comment period for stress test consultation. Agencies extend comment period for SA-CCR proposal.

Market Comment | Central Banks minutes had mild impact on markets

February 22, 2019
Calm in markets amid two days of high-level trade talks that started today, but now in the US, followed by the Liu He - Trump meeting tomorrow. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the release of multiple Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) which will detail key issues and agreements. On the other hand, the minutes from the ECB and the FOMC held the attention of investors

Upcoming changes in the ECB executive board that could change monetary policy future

February 22, 2019
In 2019, the ECB faces a broad reshuffle of its key positions that could change monetary policy future. The first change in executive board has been the substitution of Peter Praet by Philip Lane as chief economist. Using NLP techniques we monitored the ECB members’ speeches to disentangle the contents, as well as the tone, which is related to hawkish/dovish stances.

Mexico | How do we tackle the Pemex situation?

February 21, 2019
Recently, especially in the aftermath of Fitch downgrading Pemex's rating from BBB+ to BBB-, there has been nervousness in the markets because Pemex's situation is perceived as a significant risk to the country's macroeconomic stability.

Mexico | February CPI HoH forecast: pico de gallo will drive down headline inflation

February 21, 2019
Core inflation will likely ease slightly as we anticipated.

Market Comment | Optimism in markets with the focus on Central Banks minutes

February 21, 2019
Positive tone in markets ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes later today. The optimism from the US on trade negotiations and the willingness to delay the March 1st trade truce deadline weighed on markets. Yesterday, as part of the trade deal, the US asked China to keep the yuan stable. Afterwards, China reaffirmed its commitment to maintain its prudent monetary policy

Global Funds Outlook. First quarter 2019

February 20, 2019
Global Investment Funds (GIF) flows have been on a roller coaster ride since the start of Q418. Sharp pullback in portfolio flows in late 2018, focus on DMs, but since the start of this year, GIFs inflows recovered particularly to EMs. Looking ahead, EMs would continue to outperform DMs over the short term although hinged on Fed and progress on US-China trade dispute.

Market Comment | Financial markets little change ahead of tomorrow's FOMC minutes

February 20, 2019
There have been slight movements in the financial markets, pending the publication of the FOMC minutes and further details over the ongoing US-China trade negotiations. Following last week’s trade talks in Beijing, further negotiations between the two major economies started today in the US, while high-level meetings will take place once again at the end of the week

Castile and Leon Economic Outlook 2019

February 19, 2019
The economy of Castile and León Aragon may have grown 2.2% in 2018, and will reach 2.3% in 2019, to moderate to 1.9% in 2020. It will create over 35,000 new jobs by 2020, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. Total employment will be still far from its pre-crisis level. Inclusive growth is a challenge.

Market Comment | Calm in markets with Central Banks and trade on center stage

February 19, 2019
Quiet start of the week in markets with a low trading volume as US markets remained closed due to the Presidents’ Day. Following last week’s positive tone, thanks to the avoidance of the US government shutdown and the US-China trade negotiations, markets remain focused on this week’s trade talks. On another note, the release of the ECB and FOMC minutes will be key

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