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Updated: 6 hours 22 min ago

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 20 July 2018

July 20, 2018
Highlights: FSB issues report on crypto-assets monitoring. EC urges all parties to prepare for Brexit. ECB issues opinion on proposal regarding NPEs. EBA issues guidelines to strengthen the Pillar 2 framework, on fraud reporting under PSD2 and publishes its risk dashboard. ESMA issues final ITS and RTS regarding STS securitisation regulation.

China Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2018

July 20, 2018
Q2 GDP moderated to 6.7% y/y amid the trade war and domestic deleveraging, down from the previous reading at 6.8% y/y and in line with the consensus. In particular, outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are below the market expectations and the previous readings. Headwinds are from domestic deleveraging initiatives and trade war with the US externally.

Global | Steady global growth, but risks intensify

July 19, 2018
Global growth remains steady and our World GDP projections remain unchanged at 3.8% for both 2018-19, but with more divergence across areas. The US continues strong and China should decelerate as expected, but we have revised down growth for the Eurozone. Risks have increased and above all, protectionism could trim growth in the quarters ahead.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. July 2018

July 19, 2018
Balance of risks of the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). Value of cars bought on credit shifted towards higher prices. The value of production of construction companies fell by 2.6% in the first four months of 2018. Reduced concerns about global trade tensions give respite to domestic assets in the second half of June.

Global Funds Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 19, 2018
In the 2Q18 global investment funds registered outflows for the first time since 2016. The reversal –driven by tighter global financing and growing concerns on trade- has remained mild and controlled thanks to solid economic growth. It was especially strong in EM. Investor sentiment has veered from risk-on to risk-off mood and we project outflows from EM to continue.

Mexico | 98,470 votes from Mexicans abroad in 2018, 140% more than in 2012

July 18, 2018
The preferred candidate of Mexicans abroad was Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who gained 63,863 votes, 64.86% of the total, followed by: Ricardo Anaya Cortes with 26,344 votes (26.75%), José Antonio Meade Kuribreña with 4,613 votes (4.28%) and Jaime Heliodoro Rodríguez Calderón with 1,868 votes (1.90%).

Turkey | Still supportive data but losing pace

July 17, 2018
The IP grew by 6.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in May, above the market consensus of 5.5%. Despite the still positive trend, the highest monthly deterioration of 1.6% since September 2016 signals the increasing likelihood of a more rapid adjustment than expected. We expect GDP growth to come down to 3.8% in 2018.

Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 17, 2018
Growth prospects deteriorate due to the financial volatility, the negative effects of exchange rate depreciation, doubts about whether the next government will face fiscal problems and the consequences of the recent truckers’ strike, among other factors. Thus the recovery process will be more gradual than expected

Will the OPEC succeed again?

July 16, 2018
With US having abandoned the nuclear agreement with Iran, oil prices have rebounded amid expectations of a tightening supply. Paradoxically, the higher prices caused concern in the OPEC and amongst its partners. Whilst it is true that higher crude oil prices would lead to a windfall, it would also damage demand from their buyers, including India, China and US.

Public sector: productivity and new technologies

July 16, 2018
The Spanish economy is on a clear expansionary path. Activity and employment are recovering, but low levels of productivity persist, and this depresses competitiveness and long-term growth potential while keeping wages low. And yet this is nothing new.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 13 July 2018

July 13, 2018
ECB announces a series of measures for NPLs. ESRB and SRB issue their annual reports. ESMA consults on clearing obligations, and issues statement on Brexit. Spanish Ministry of Economy issues draft law for the sandbox regulation. UK government issues Brexit white paper. US Agencies issue joint statement on the application of EGRRCPA.

Monitoring Global Trade Support in real time using BigData

July 13, 2018
The stagnation of global trade and the retreat of globalization have become a key issue across the world over the recent years. Both critics and supporters of globalization have spread their stance on it in academic and policymaking speeches. China and the United States are among the countries where trade support has been negatively affected.

United States Economic Outlook. July 2018

July 13, 2018
High growth and inflation will continue in 2018 & 2019. We now anticipate that the Fed will raise rates three times in 2019; for 2018, we maintain our baseline scenario of hikes in Sept. & Dec. Despite elevated volatility in the employment surveys we maintain our outlook for ongoing tightening in the labor market; unemployment rate to reach 3.7%.

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