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Valencian Community Economic Outlook. Second half 2018

October 3, 2018
The economy of Valencian Community grew 3.2% in 2017 and will grow 2.7% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. This will add around 110,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 12.6%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Mexico | Remittances grow 9.1% in August completing 29 consecutive months of growth

October 3, 2018
The dynamics of remittances are explained firstly by the number of transactions recorded, which increased by 5.0%, and secondly by the 3.8% increase in the average amount of remittances. In real terms, remittances grew by 9.9%, mainly due to the exchange rate effect.

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest September

October 3, 2018
Tensions between the US and North Korea remained contained as both parties. However, US-China relations worsened as both countries imposed new tariffs. The US and Canada achieved a new trade deal including Mexico to replace NAFTA. Turkey and Russia agreed to resolve the Idlib dispute in Syria with demilitarized zones. US-Iran relations are still on a worsening track.

Castilla-La Mancha Economic Outlook 2018

October 2, 2018
The economy of Castile-La Mancha grew 2.5% in 2017, but will accelerate to a 2.8% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019, creating around 48,000 new jobs and lowering the unemployment rate to 14.8% during this two-year period. While the pre-crisis GDP per capita will be reached, better and stronger job creation remains the main challenge.

We think Banxico will remain on hold for the rest of the year

October 2, 2018
Stable MXN, well-behaved core inflation and well-anchored mid and long-term inflation expectations mean no more preemptive hikes.

Prisoners in Salzburg

October 1, 2018
Last week’s European summit in Salzburg dealt a reality shock to the British government in its aspirations of obtaining the support of the European leaders for its Brexit negotiation plan. After Salzburg, the prospects of a reasonable agreement are at an all-time low, although it is to be hoped that the situation will improve in the next few months.

Portugal | Growth is upheld, but there are signs of a slowdown

October 1, 2018
Portuguese GDP grew 0.6% t/t in 2Q18, mainly due to the increase in gross capital formation and the improvement in the external sector, and despite the low growth of domestic final consumption. Based on the indicators available so far, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q18 will be approximately 0.3% QoQ SWDA.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 28 September 2018

September 28, 2018
Highlights: TCFD issues first status report. EBA launches 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise. ECB issues guide for on-site inspections and internal models investigations. ESMA issues RST on clearing obligations for intragroup transactions. PRA issues report on financial risks from climate change. US Agencies amend swap margin rule.

U.S. | FOMC raises rate for third time this year, poised for fourth in December

September 27, 2018
As we expected, the FOMC raised its benchmark rate for the third time this year. Markets reacted little to the widely anticipated 25bp increase, with 10-year treasury yields down a bit and equity prices up slightly.

U.S. | What’s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth?

September 27, 2018
Capital stock, labor, and productivity do not show a significant increase following the recent fiscal stimulus. According to our forecast, potential output will grow 1.8% per year on average for the next 10 years. Potential GDP growth reached its peak in 2017, and thus monetary policy normalization is adequate.

Stable Sentiment towards Financial Vulnerabilities - 3Q18

September 26, 2018
The China Vulnerability Sentiment Index remained stable through Q3 despite the escalated trade disputes with the US and growth slowdown. By component, the SOE index recovered. Both Housing Bubble index and Shadow banking index still held well. However, the Exchange Rate Index plummeted before recovered on the central bank’s revealed efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.

U.S. | Just what the doctor ordered: real-time recession forecasts

September 25, 2018
Highly predictive financial and economic factors suggest recession risk remains low. However, these indicators are trending towards pre-recession peaks, implying a recession could happen around 2020.

Mexico | Dynamism of term deposits boosts growth in traditional bank deposits

September 25, 2018
In July 2018, the nominal annual growth rate of traditional deposits (demand + term) of commercial banks was 10% (4.9% real). The growth rate in July was lower than in the previous month (11.8%) and was also lower than the growth rate in the same month of 2017 (10.5%).

Mexico | Trade agreement with the United States: investment framework to be maintained

September 25, 2018
On 27 August, Mexico and the US announced that they had reached an understanding allowing them to sign a trade agreement to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Although we are still awaiting the final text in order to offer our full assessment, on the basis of the announcement made by the negotiating teams, we can give a preliminary analysis.