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Updated: 6 hours 23 min ago

Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 28, 2018
With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18

July 28, 2018
Sales remain resilient backed by robust economic growth. Automakers continue to benefit from consumers favoring light-trucks over cars. Higher interest rates and gasoline prices may impact demand through the remaining of the year.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 27 July 2018

July 27, 2018
Highlights: CPMI and IOSCO update report on principles for financial market infrastructures. EBA issues opinion on European Secured Notes and updates CET1 and AT1 instruments. ESAs issue guidance on KID requirements for PRIIPs. HM Treasury issues statutory instrument for a temporary permission regime after Brexit. BoE issues statement on SONIA compliance.

China | What is our expectation of Bilateral Investment Treaty with the EU?

July 27, 2018
Our report analyzes the current situation of the China-EU bilateral investment and investigates the contents and difficulties of BIT negotiations. We expect that the BIT between China and the EU will be a game-changer weapon to help China to end its trade war with the US. Moreover, it will also catalyze structural reforms in China and boost its domestic growth.

U.S. | Lithium and cobalt: Same purpose, different paths

July 27, 2018
Lithium and cobalt are the latest vogue in commodity markets, as evidenced by the significant growth in their prices since 2016.

The ECB reaffirmed its way out

July 27, 2018
No changes in its policy or forward guidance. Slightly more confident on growth and inflation

Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 27, 2018
We expect and acceleration of GDP growth from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption. Low expected inflation, the adjustment in external accounts made by Colombia and the stability in the exchange rate will allow the Central Bank to maintain its reference rate in an accommodative stance for a prolonged time.

Presentation Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 26, 2018
With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 25, 2018
Latin America will grow 1.3% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with considerable heterogeneity across countries. These forecasts are lower than the previous ones, mainly due to the revision of growth in Argentina and Brazil. This adjustment in the two countries could not be compensated by the upward revisions of growth in Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Paraguay.

Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 25, 2018
The economy is starting to settle into improved performance, with positive surprises. Political tension has reduced, business confidence has improved, and private expenditure shows a good performance. As a result, we expect output to grow by 3.6% this year and 3.9% next, more than we forecast in our last report.

Eurozone | A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks

July 25, 2018
Confidence seem to level off pointing to a steady growth in 2H18. The 1Q18 slowdown in activity added to increasing uncertainty and higher commodity prices lead us to slash GDP growth forecasts to 2% and 1.7% in 2018-19. Higher oil prices and a weaker euro increase our headline inflation forecasts to 1.7% and 1.8% for this year and next. Trade war risks have intensified.

Turkey | The CBRT stays on hold & Lira depreciates

July 25, 2018
The Central Bank (CBRT) decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged (17.75%) despite the market expectations (including ours) of 100 bps tightening. We expect the CBRT will have to tight later, maybe tighter depending on the degree of fiscal consolidation and currency volatility.

Mexico | NAFTA: uncertainty will continue and so therefore will exchange rate volatility

July 24, 2018
Over the past two years movements in the peso’s rate of exchange against the dollar have tended to follow more than anything the prospects for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and trade relations between Mexico and the United States in general.

Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

July 23, 2018
The GDP growth forecasts for the Spanish economy stay at 2.9% for 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. However, the composition of demand is less favourable than that observed three months ago. In addition, the probability of materializing some risks that may result in less dynamic scenarios has increased.

A pro-cyclical fiscal policy

July 23, 2018
One of the most important public services provided by the State is to insure against risks. Access to education, health care or unemployment benefits means that, during a recession, the most vulnerable households do not reduce their consumption as much. In addition to giving people stability, fiscal policy also allows smoothing of the economic cycle.

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