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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 4 May 2018

May 4, 2018
Highlights: ECB released its fifth Macroprudential Bulletin. ECB also launched EU financial integration report. ECB and BoE created a working group for Brexit risks. BdE published their biannual financial stability report. Finally, on the U.S. the OCC adopted rule to increase appraisal threshold for commercial real estate transactions.

Turkey | High core prices pose additional risks

May 3, 2018
Consumer prices increased 1.87% (mom) in April, even higher than our above consensus estimate (1.7% vs. 1.5%).Annual consumer inflation jumped to 10.85% from 10.23% with a more rapid pick-up in core prices than our expectation. We maintain our year-end inflation estimate at 10.5%, though exchange rate volatility and loose policies could pose upside risks.

Mexico | Monetary Aggregates and Domestic Financial Assets

May 1, 2018
Banco de México (Mexico’s central bank, Banxico), published its Monetary Aggregates (MAs) based on the 2018 methodology. These new indicators replace those that the central bank published on a monthly basis until December 2017, based on the 199 methodology.

U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. April 2018

May 1, 2018
The data remain consistent with the BBVA baseline expectation of three additional Fed funds rate increases in 2018 and two in 2019. The yield curve slope between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes flattened, fluctuating between 41 and 54 basis points. The baseline remains for a gradual increase in long-term yields.

Global debt - Is history repeating itself?

April 30, 2018
2018 started with the expectation that this time around the world economy really would be able to chalk up a second consecutive year of solid growth and successfully navigate through two of its main hazards: US monetary normalisation and China’s slowdown.