Wednesday, June 19 2019 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 24 min 9 sec ago
Tweaks to Fed balance sheet strategy and operational framework. Fed to reach terminal balance level in 2019. New principled approach not without risks.
Markets showed mild movements despite the release of mixed economic indicators. Today, Chinese officials on the National People’s Congress revised downward the growth target and announced tax cuts, while dissapointing PMIs reinforced concerns over a slowdown in China's economy. However these fears were offset partially due to positive confidence data in the EZ and the US.
The government presented a ten-point summary of its Migrant Protection Strategy for 2019–2024, which details: 1) a new vision focused on migrants' rights and 2) the expansion of the mobile consulate system to reach the most remote populations.
The positive mood in markets seemed to fade somewhat at the start of the week despite the optimism around the US-China trade deal and Brexit, jointly with the recent release of an upbeat on data. This week the focus will be on this Thursday’s ECB meeting and China’s annual National People’s Congress, coupled with releases of economic data and some EM Central Banks meetings
Massive protests erupted in Algeria after President Buteflika announced that he will run for a fifth term on Algeria’s Elections. Our social unrest tracker skyrocketed to levels not seen since the Arab Spring. A terrorist group based in Pakistan claimed responsibility over a suicide bomb in an Indian controlled region. India responded militarily in Pakistani territory.
Consumer prices rose by 0.16% in February lower than the consensus but higher than our estimate (0.4% vs. -0.3%). Thus, annual consumer inflation slowed down to 19.7% from 20.4% in January. We expect the inflation stay near 20% till June and end the year at 14.5% on favorable base effects, deeper negative output gap and stabilized currency.
One situation that is often used in works of fiction is the existence of an underlying, unresolved tension between two of the characters, let’s say dealing with feelings, which goes on to affect the development of the plot.
The hard data up to December were mixed. We saw industrial production continue to decline and exports continue to recover. Also on the positive side, confidence seems to have stopped its downward trend in February. Because of all this our MICA estimates that Eurozone growth for 1Q19 will maintain at around 0.2% q/q.
Financial markets ended the week with a slightly risk-on mood amid the release of upbeat economic data in the main economies. Core yields increased sharply without penalizing equity markets. Apart from economic data, the suspension of the rise in US tariffs on Chinese goods and the "patient" Fed were this week’s main drivers
Global growth saw a slight sequential pick up in 4Q18 (BBVA-GAIN: 0.8% QoQ), signaling stabilization, but still at weak levels and trending lower. Eurozone and China continue to lose steam, while the US shows early signs of stress. Slowdown led by industry while services remain resilient. The later faces rising risk of spillover effect. Risks remain tilted to the downside.
Highlights: ESMA to recognise UK CSD post Brexit. ECB issues feedback on ESTER’s consultation. EBA issues valuation handbook for resolution, and consults CRM for advanced IRB models. EU Parliament and Council agree many initiatives. BoE, FCA and CFTC issue statement on post-Brexit derivatives clearing and trading. US Agencies consult on amendments to the Volcker rule.
Financial markets remained calm with full attention on the release of encouraging economic data for the US and EZ that have allowed core yields to continue increasing. Meanwhile in trade, the US has announced the official suspension of the increase in US tariffs on Chinese products planned for Friday, but it is unknown how long the suspension will last.
We expect Banxico to cut rates two times this year, we do not rule out three rate cuts.
We maintain our growth forecast for Uruguay at 1.3% in 2019 and we revised it downwards in 2020 to 1.9% (before 2.2%). An environment of lower global growth, in Argentina and Brazil, as well as the lack of definition of the beginning of the third pulp mill construction will determine a moderate growth in the next two years.
The positive tone in markets seemed to fade somewhat; however, economic indicators in the US, which were above expectations, weighed on core yields. Meanwhile, the second day of Powell’s address continued to draw investors’ attention. On another front, the US and North Korea met today while India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions have had a muted impact in the markets, so far
The economy of Valencian Community grew 2.5% in 2018 and will grow 2.3% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. This will add around 75,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 11.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge. However, measures must be promoted so that the recovery may be inclusive.