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Updated: 6 hours 28 min ago

Mexico | Moderation of traditional bank deposit continues

April 27, 2019
In a context of economic slowdown and short-term rates at their highest level since 2009, traditional bank deposits show, in February, a fall in their growth rate to 7.5% annual nominal (3.4% real), a figure not observed since the beginning of 2014.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. April 2019

April 27, 2019
The CESF reviews its balance of risks, highlighting the increase of foreign risk. The CNBV announces a new publication on financial inclusion. The economic slowdown and unchanged interest rate expectations are the main factors behind financial market movements.

Market Comment | Bonds remain in favour amid muted inflation

April 27, 2019
Demand for safe-haven bonds increased after inflation pressures moderated in the US during Q1 2019 amid lack of compelling growth signals, and rising vulnerability concerns for EM economies in the wake of USD strength.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 26 April 2019

April 26, 2019
Highlights: NGFS issues first comprehensive report on climate change. EU Parliament approves legislative package for financial entities. BoE amends financial services legislation in the context of Brexit. PRA and FCA publish business plans for 2019/20. US Agencies consult on resolution planning and supplementing leverage ratio

U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook. First quarter 2019

April 26, 2019
New vehicle sales are projected to decelerate from 2018 levels. Robust economic growth has been the main driver of auto sales, but affordability is deteriorating while the impact of previous tax cuts is diluting. Going forward, higher interest rates and a higher supply of “off-leasing” vehicles will exert downward pressures on demand for new vehicles.

U.S. Economic Outlook. April 2019

April 26, 2019
GDP growth 2.5% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Model based recession probability above 50%. Probability of Fed rate hike in 2019 diminished; quantitative tightening end in September. Labor market stabilizes after whipsawing. Core inflation stable, headline below 2.0% in 2019. Short-lived technical yield curve inversion, but signaling power altered by structural changes.

Market Comment | Stock markets retreat amid central bank caution, mixed company earnings

April 26, 2019
Bond and currency markets move sideways on dovish central banks, while equity indices drop on mixed company earnings.

Turkey | The CBRT softens its policy tone

April 26, 2019
The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained the monetary policy rate unchanged (one-week repo, 24%) in line with expectations. We expect annual inflation will stay close to 20% until June and near 15.5% at the end of the year. Hence, we think that the CBRT should wait until October when the recovery in inflation will become more obvious to initiate easing cycle in monetary policy.

Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

April 25, 2019
Latin America is expected to grow 1.7% in 2019 and of 2.3% in 2020, less than previously expected (2.1% and 2.4%, respectively), due to the increased difficulties in implementing necessary adjustments and the weaker economic activity figures released in recent months, mainly in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, against the backdrop of a slowdown in the world economy.

Market Comment | Bund yields re-enter negative territory as activity disappoints

April 25, 2019
Weak economic activity in the Eurozone dragged on bond yields and the euro, while upbeat company earnings led the S&P to a new record high.

Market Comment | Pressure on Italy resume

April 24, 2019
Cautious tone in financial markets. Safe-haven yields remained steady while Italy’s risk premium widened ahead S&P Italy’s rating update. The US dollar attracted safe-haven flows, while company earnings and oil prices supported equity prices.

More uncertainty and less growth

April 23, 2019
In the last three quarters we have witnessed a significant slowdown of the world economy. On a global level, growth has fallen from rates of around 4% to 3%, with a particularly feeble performance of world trade and the manufacturing sector, as a result of the uncertainties arising from the threats of protectionism and the loss of momentum of certain drivers.

Infographic Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

April 23, 2019
GDP growth is revised downwards slightly to 2.2% in 2019 and to 1.9% in 2020, mainly as a result of lower European demand in an environment of high uncertainty. In any case, the recovery will continue due to the gradual improvement in the global environment and a more expansive monetary policy.

Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

April 23, 2019
GDP growth is revised downwards slightly to 2.2% in 2019 and to 1.9% in 2020, mainly as a result of lower European demand in an environment of high uncertainty. In any case, the recovery will continue due to the gradual improvement in the global environment and a more expansive monetary policy.

Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

April 23, 2019
GDP growth is revised downwards slightly to 2.2% in 2019 and to 1.9% in 2020, mainly as a result of lower European demand in an environment of high uncertainty. In any case, the recovery will continue due to the gradual improvement in the global environment and a more expansive monetary policy.

Mexico Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

April 23, 2019
Early indicators in 2019 show signs of resilience in priv. consumption & risks associated with external demand. Inflation has had a great start to 2019: the cumulative increase of 0.1 pp in Jan-Feb is the lowest since 2015, a year in which infl. reached an all-time low. Recovery of domestic assets in an environment of less domestic uncertainty and monetary pause in the US.

Market Comment | Risk on mood abated after disappointed European Economic data

April 23, 2019
With the European markets closed for holidays today, the risk-on mood of financial markets faltered after European economic data fell short of expectations, and US mixed economic data failed to improve risk appetite.

Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

April 22, 2019
Growth recovery is slowing down in Brazil. The deceleration in the world economy, as well as slow and limited progress in the local adoption of economic reforms –particularly in the social security- will limit the economy’s capacity for growth in the coming years. We expect GDP to grow 1.8% in both 2019 and 2020.

European resilience

April 22, 2019
For many months now, there have been doubts surrounding both the global and, in particular, the European economy, given the emergence of a potential trend towards lower growth. As with all cycle changes, uncertainty is high and medium-term forecasting is difficult.

Slowdown, uncertainty, measures: Is it all starting again?

April 22, 2019
In Europe, the deterioration of growth expectations has been more pronounced, incorporating the effect of negative surprises that appear less transitory in an area especially sensitive to the development of trade with the US and China.

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