PRIVILEGED ACCESS
(Subscribers/Members) |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
| Feature Reports |
Home » Feature Reports |
|
 |
TIME THE ENEMY FOR THAKSIN
Robert Horn*
24-02-2010
ATI Feb/March 2010
BANGKOK — Despite domestic tensions and four Prime Ministers during the past two-and-a-half years, Thailand has rebounded nicely from the world economic recession. Current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has said growth will rise to between 3.0 and 4.7 per cent in 2010.
His Finance Minister, Korn Chatikavanij, has cautioned, however, that the recovery could be damaged by further political turmoil. And coming months are expected to be a time of great turmoil in Thailand.
On February 26, a Thai court is expected to rule on whether 76 billion baht (US$2.3 billion) in assets seized from former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a coup d’etat in late 2006, will be permanently confiscated by the State.
The ruling is expected to spark street protests from either pro- or anti-Thaksin forces, depending upon how the judges decide. Civil unrest from Thaksin’s supporters and detractors led to the seizure of Bangkok’s international airport in 2008 and riots in the capital in 2009. Both incidents dealt severe blows to business confidence and tourism.
Prosecutors contend that, as Prime Minister, Thaksin took several actions that enriched his business interests at the expense of the State, causing losses of billions of baht to State agencies. Already convicted on a separate conflict-of-interest charge, and living in self-imposed exile to avoid serving a two-year prison sentence, Thaksin has denied all charges.
But rather than rely solely on the prowess of his legal team, one of whose members was arrested for allegedly attempting to bribe court officials last year, Thaksin has been mobilising thousands of supporters, called “red shirts” for the colour they wear, and has vowed to bring down the Government during the first half of 2010. A rogue military officer loyal to Thaksin has warned of plots to assassinate the judges.
Most troubling are the fugitive Prime Minister’s challenges to the monarchy, long seen as a stabilising force in Thailand. Thaksin has repeatedly accused two privy councillors, advisors to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, of masterminding the coup that toppled him. The advisors have denied the allegations.
Nonetheless, the red shirts have staged numerous protests against the privy councillors and demanded they resign — a demand which can be interpreted as treading on the perogatives of the King, as privy councillors are appointed and dismissed solely at the disgression of the monarch.
The King has been hospitalised since September, reportedly for a lung infection, and is rarely seen in public. In his most recent appearance, he granted an audience to judges and urged them to be brave and to uphold justice. The frail nature of the 82-year-old monarch’s health, and the unprecedented challenges to privy councillors and others deemed loyal to the monarchy, has been a source of unease for many in Thai society.
Thaksin and his followers claim fealty to King Bhumibol, but seem determined to weaken or dismantle the apparatus of his reign. Their rallies feature calls for the overthrow of the “amatya”, translated variously as the aristocracy, the bureaucratic elite or just the elite in general.
Thaksin advisor Jakrapob Penkair told the Asia Times website that guns were being funnelled into the pro-Thaksin stronghold of northeastern Thailand from neighbouring Cambodia, where Prime Minister Hun Sen has sparked bilateral tension by naming Thaksin an economic advisor and refusing to extradite him to Thailand. Another Thaksin advisor and former general, Panlop Pinmanee, has declared the red shirts will form a “People’s Army”, but Thaksin quickly insisted that his movement won’t resort to violence.
Violence, however, is one of Thaksin’s most valuable cards in this high-stakes game, and the rampage through Bangkok last April by his red shirt followers has shown he is willing to use it. While Thaksin appears to still retain enough support in rural Thailand for his proxy political party, called Puea Thai, to win an election, if Prime Minister Abhisit can
continue to guide the country to economic recovery, Thaksin risks seeing his support erode before an election is called. Abhisit has the option of calling an election any time between now and 2012.
Several analysts, however, have voiced concern that Thaksin’s red shirts will attempt to foment violence in the hope of provoking the Army to stage a coup to restore order. Because the 2006 coup failed to resolve Thailand’s political problems and may have worsened them, sentiment against a coup runs high among the public. If a coup took place, Thaksin has said he will lead the people to rise up against the military.
Army Chief, Gen. Anupong Paochinda, has vowed there will be no coup. Thai generals rarely ever admit to planning one, however.
Nonetheless, Anupong is keenly aware of public sentiment. And most of the public, no matter who they support, have voiced unhappiness with the continuing protests and political turmoil in every opinion poll. Time, therefore, may not be on Thaksin’s side, which means the short-term risks for Thailand and its economy are high.
* Robert Horn is Bangkok correspondent for ATI Magazine. |
|
|
|
| Previously in Feature Reports: |
|
|
 |
|
|
| |
| |
|
