Will Asia’s export markets lose lustre in second half?

HONG KONG - Supportive base effects aside, three defining features of Asia’s current export upcycle raise doubts over the sustainability of this cycle - or at least, its strength, says ANZ Bank. “We think that exports would lose their lustre in the second half of 2017,” the bank says.  

In order of importance, it says:
1) The trade recovery is geographically narrow driven by China and intra-regional demand;
2) Export prices have played an unusually important role; and
3) The global 'tech' cycle has also been on-side.
“China is reverting back to its old but unsustainable investment- led growth model,  whereas the 'tech cycle' seems to be maturing,” ANZ says. “The commodity price impulse is also starting to fade.
“The tenacity of Asia’s export cycle will be a key issue for currency markets in the second half of the year. Owing to its strong influence on regional growth and corporate earnings, it will define the region’s ability to overcome higher interest rates in the U.S.”  www.live.anzcom (ATI).