Trackers show Philippines leading regional growth

May 15, 2017

SINGAPORE - Monthly trackers developed by ANZ Bank based on high frequency indicators to gauge the direction and magnitude of GDP growth in Asian economies point at a regional level towards a steady improvement in growth in exports. Exports have complemented or cushioned growth even in economies driven by domestic demand, like India and Indonesia, the trackers show.

“Taken as a whole, the trackers are likely to show an up-tick in economic momentum in some of the upcoming preliminary Q1 GDP data prints, but there is still considerable heterogeneity across the region,” ANZ says.
“On a disaggregated basis, the tracker suggests that the Philippines has clocked the strongest growth, followed by China and India. In fact, the Philippines’ GDP tracker, when juxtaposed with other indicators, suggests that the economy may be overheating.
“On the other hand, growth in Indonesia is stuck in a lower range of 5.0-5.5%, with neither consumption nor investment suggesting a material upturn.” (ATI).