Singapore GDP lifts, ANZ tips 4% growth in 2018

November 24, 2017

SINGAPORE - Singapore’s Q3 GDP growth has been revised higher from its initial advanced reading. Sequential growth was revised to 8.8% q/q SAAR (from 6.3%), taking y/y growth to 5.2% (from 4.6%). Because of this, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) has upgraded its GDP growth forecast to 3-3.5% for 2017 (from 2-3% previously). For 2018, MTI is forecasting GDP growth of 1.5-3.5%.  

ANZ Bank says that even though it upgraded its own full-year 2017 GDP forecast to 3% earlier this month, this is now looking too low in light of the GDP revisions.

“We now revise our 2017 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% (from 3% previously), but maintain our 2018 forecast at 4%, which is at the top end of market expectations at present,” ANZ says.

“The pick-up in activity is becoming more broad-based, and overall financial conditions remain very supportive of growth.”

ANZ adds that, despite the upgraded outlook, the Monetary Authority of Singapore still sees the current monetary policy stance as appropriate. “We see MAS exiting from its neutral policy stance only at its October 2018 meeting.” (ATI).