Korean exports surprise to the upside in October

SEOUL - Korea’s October exports swung back to growth on a year-on-year basis in October (7.3% y/y vs consensus: 2.3% y/y), compared to a decline of 1.5% y/y the previous month. Exports to the US and Europe saw significant improvements. Despite the strong export reading in October, however, BBVA Bank says it believes the growth recovery will remain fragile as the effects of fiscal stimulus implemented earlier this year wear off (Q3 GDP growth of 1.1% q/q, s.a. released last week was flat compared to the previous quarter, with weak external demand offsetting a pickup in private consumption and investment). “We maintain our full-year growth projection of 2.7% in 2013 and 3.7% in 2014 on improving external demand,” BBVA says. www.bbvaresearch.com (ATI).