China and Japan risk war over Senkakus dispute: IISS study

October 27, 2014

LONDON - There is an appreciable risk of war between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, into which the US would be drawn, according to a new publication from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Conflict is genuinely possible, despite the potential costs to both nations far outweighing the economic value of the disputed territory, it says.

In his new Adelphi publication, The Ties That Divide: History, Honour and Territory in Sino-Japanese Relations, William Choong, Shangri-La Dialogue Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, examines the rapidly deteriorating relationship between the two Asian nations.
 He claims that the dispute between Japan and China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which is entangled with a disagreement over Japan’s wartime record, has directly affected military postures in and around the disputed islands, and raised the possibility of open conflict. 
According to Choong, relations between the two countries have descended down a dangerous spiral. He asserts that the more Japan refuses to come clean on historical issues and admit that there is a dispute over the islands, the more China feels compelled to act in the form of incursions into the waters surrounding the chain. 
Choong says top-level dialogue and interactions between political leaders from both sides have now largely ceased, with both nations indulging in increasingly nationalistic behaviour and rhetoric.

The impact of this dispute, he claims, has been further compounded by factors such as the enduring strength of the US–Japan alliance, Tokyo’s post-2001 efforts towards remilitarisation, its shift to the right during Shinzo Abe’s second term as Prime Minister and Beijing’s perception that the US seeks to contain its ‘peaceful rise’ through a network of alliances and partnerships across the Asia-Pacific.
 Choong said: ‘Existing trends entail an appreciable risk of armed conflict. The US rebalance to the Asia-Pacific is stoking Chinese fears about containment and Japan casting off its post-war restrictions in order to become a “normal power”. https://www.iiss.org/ (ATI).