Asia emerging from trade recession, but watch Trump policies: ANZ

SINGAPORE - Recent trade data show a notable rebound in exports in most Asian countries, even though China is somewhat a laggard, according to a new report from ANZ Bank, which suggests the end of a trade recession which has plagued the region since late 2014.

The rebound is broad based, led by machinery and equipment, electronics as well as commodities.
Says ANZ: “While this development is encouraging, we are cognisant of the risk that the rebound is in its nascent stage and could be dampened or even derailed. In particular, we think the risk of US-Sino trade tensions has increased, indicated by Donald Trump’s pick of nominee for trade policy.
“With China’s export recovery lagging the rest of the region, any loss of momentum in China’s trade will have repercussions across the rest of Asia.
“However, Asia’s commodity trade may be less vulnerable as Trump’s stimulative fiscal policy will underpin commodity prices. Commodity exporters like Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines may thus be more resilient.”  www.live.anz.com (ATI).