Sunday, July 5 2020 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
HONG KONG - ANZ's Senior China Economist, Betty Wang, believes China's consolidated fiscal deficit could jump to as high as 9.0% of GDP due to fiscal repair measures likely in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
SYDNEY - Strong commodity exports and a sharp fall in services imports supported a jump to a record trade surplus of AUD10.6 billion for Australia in March. HSBC says the closure of Australia's borders saw a larger fall in service imports than exports, boosting the trade surplus. Australia is typically a net importer of tourism services.
BEIJING - ANZ Bank says a surprising rise in exports from China in April was driven by electronic exports, which were up 5.6% y/y, based on ANZ calculations. Pending official numbers (at the time of writing), our calculation based on historical data suggests mechanical and electronic exports, which account for 58.8% of total exports, rose 5.6% y/y in April," ANZ says.
SYDNEY - Australia may see a 7.5% fall in GDP for the first half of 2020 followed by a U-shaped recovery, according to Paul Bloxham, HSBC's Chief Economist for Australia/New Zealand.
TAIPEI- Global ratings agency Standard and Poors has affirmed its ratings on Taiwan at AA-/A-1+ and says the outlook is stable. "A robust net external asset position, strong monetary flexibility, and competitive private sector will help anchor our ratings on Taiwan in the face of economic headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic," it says.
HONG KONG - Asia will be hit twice in 2020 by both domestic and external demand shocks, according to the global financial group, Natixis, which says its "rather benign" scenario in terms of growth rebound in 2021 is subject to three key risks. The risks, it says, are:
* A protracted global recession in 2021 as stimulus measures fail, or a new wave for the pandemic;
* Rapid de-globalisation of trade and investment and, possibly an extension of barriers to the cross-border movement of people; and
* A spike in financial risk leading to a domino effect in defaults in the corporate and/or sovereign space.
SINGAPORE - Due to the severity of measures being taken to stop the spread of COVID-19 in the US and euro area, ANZ Bank is now estimating that GDP will probably run at 20% below normal for the next couple of months.
HONG KONG - Standard and Poors has lowered its stand-alone credit profile (SACP) for Hong Kong' s MTR Corporation to 'a' from 'a+' because it expects the metro operator to face an increasingly volatile operating environment amid the COVID-19 outbreak, Hong Kong's social unrest, and a generally weaker economic environment. S&P says it has also revised its assessment of MTRC's liquidity to adequate from strong to reflect its expectation of weaker cash flow in 2020.
HONG KONG - Compared to their Asian peers, Singapore banks have been seeing more deposits - they increased by 23% YoY from non-residents in January 2020, according to the French banking group Natixis. In Hong Kong, net foreign portfolio inflows reduced in February and turned negative in March, driven by the escalated global coronavirus outbreak and the recent oil shock.
HONG KONG -- S&P Global Ratings said today that Swire Pacific Ltd. (A-/Stable/-) had built up greater balance sheet flexibility to weather increasing macro uncertainties in the coming year. This should support the company's credit standing, but its financial cushion would be compressed over the next 12 months, the agency said.
BEIJING -- Beijing Municipality will donate protective supplies including medical isolation gowns and gloves to the cities of Seoul, Tehran, Tokyo and Yokohama to help with their novel coronavirus control. Xinhua, China's State newsagency, says hand sanitizers, nucleic acid testing kits, intelligent thermometer equipment and ventilators are also among the items to be donated.
HANOI - While Vietnam has been able to contain the spread of COVID-9, initial measurable impacts of the outbreak on its economy have shown up in growth figures for several sectors in the first two months of 2020. Aviation and the tourism industry are those most badly hit. Vietnam's overall Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and manufacturing IIP in 2M2020 slowed to 6.2% YoY and 7.4% YoY vs. 9.2% and 11.4% in 2M2019, respectively.
HONG KONG - Looking beyond the human tragedy of the coronavirus, the global banking group, Natixis, says the epidemic has exposed the downsides of depending too heavily on China to power global manufacturing - and predicts a continuation of the diversification trend by manufacturers to move away from China.
BEIJING - China' s three major telecom operators have told a symposium that more than 550,000 5G base stations are expected to be put into operation nationwide by the end of this year - and that 80% of the country's 5G network construction was on schedule in the first two months of 2020.
HONG KONG -- S&P -Global Rating said today that MTR Corp. Ltd.'s (MTRC; AA+/Stable/A-1+) stand-alone credit profile (SACP) faces immense strain in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak and the aftershocks of Hong Kong's protest movement. Both events have hit transit numbers and retail sentiment in Hong Kong in 2019-2020.
SINGAPORE - The recent surge of coronavirus cases outside of China is a rising risk to global economies and credit markets, S&P Global Ratings says in an update on the impact of COVID-19.