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Freeing up Spain's Autonomous Communities

January 31, 2017
The Autonomous Community Liquidity Fund succeeded in reducing the cost of regional financing and avoiding the need for more procyclical fiscal policies. Nevertheless, having achieved that goal, there is now a need to implement a plan that allows regional governments to return to market-based financing.

Central bank's independence in question

January 30, 2017
In the depths of the financial crisis the central banks emerged as saviours, with miraculous injections of liquidity and soothing interest rate cuts. With their unlimited capacity for creating liquidity, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank played the leading roles in the escape from the Lehman and euro crises respectively.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: GDP, employment, income and spending

January 28, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of January 30, 2017. Special topic: First estimate of 4Q16 GDP

Mexico | Trump sets out his policy on immigration for the next few months

January 28, 2017
The border wall with Mexico is a priority in Trump’s immigration policy. Other far-reaching measures are: hiring 5,000 more Border Patrol officers and 10,000 new ICE agents, empowering State and local law enforcement agencies to perform the functions of immigration officers, withholding federal funds from “sanctuary jurisdictions” and reinstating the Secure Communities

Global Watch | Improving activity, but higher uncertainty

January 27, 2017
Global growth has stepped up further in 4Q16 (+0.9% QoQ), as our GAIN-model suggests, driven mostly by industrial activity and stronger confidence along with improving global trade and higher new orders. Nonetheless, risks are tilted to the downside and are linked to politics and protectionism, but also derive from China’s imbalances.

Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2016

January 25, 2017
Volatility returns in financial markets in the wake of the US election and the Fed’s rate hike. The outlook continues to point to a recovery of growth in 2017 in the majority of countries. The region will grow by 1.3% next year. The fall in inflation will lead to interest rate cuts by most South American central banks.

Turkey: CBRT Opted to Regain Flexibility

January 25, 2017
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept one-week-repo rate at 8% but raised O/N lending rate to 9.25% from 8.5% and late liquidity window (LLW) rate from 10% to 11%. The increases in O/N lending and LLW rates were in line with market consensus, however, not delivering a hike in the one-week repo rate was surprising for the markets.

Chile | Fundamentals of the Chilean Economy

January 24, 2017
The aim of this presentation goes beyond the short-run economic outlook with relevant data on different dimensions of the Chilean economy. It seeks to provide information to frequent questions from both foreign and domestic investors.

Portugal: growth could return to around 0.3% QoQ in 4Q16

January 23, 2017
The growth of the Portuguese economy during 3Q16 reached 0.8% QoQ1, with a surprise acceleration in the growth levels from the levels around 0.3% QoQ seen in the first half of the year. The foreign sector was the main cause of this growth, with a strong increase in exports and an unexpected decline in imports.

Paradox of Progress: Global Trends for the next few years

January 23, 2017
Every four years, the US National Intelligence Council produces a Global Trends report for the incoming president, describing the trends and challenges the world will face in the medium term. Last week the latest report was presented under the title “Paradox of Progress”, with the sub-heading “Global Trends and Key Implications Through 2035”.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: 4Q16 GDP and consumer sentiment

January 21, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of January 23, 2017.

China | Trump, tariffs and tensions

January 20, 2017
Donald Trump will be inaugurated as 45th President of the United States today. During his campaign, he pledged to label China a “currency manipulator” and impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports during his first day in office. While the likelihood of this scenario remains low, a number of factors point towards a more protectionist agenda under Trump.