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Updated: 10 hours 16 min ago

Turkey: V-shaped Growth Recovery on Revisions and Consumption

March 31, 2017
4Q16 GDP grew by 3.5% YoY, significantly above the market and our expectation of 1.9%. Accordingly, full year GDP growth came in at 2.9%. Surging private consumption and much higher than expected growth in industry were the main sources of our bias. Our monthly GDP model signals a further recovery in 1Q17, suggesting a v-shaped recovery after the slump in 3Q16.

Banking Outlook. March 2017

March 29, 2017
In this issue we review: Trends and developments in the Spanish banking sector. Spanish banks’ ROE, COE and P/BV ratio. Evolution of the financial burden of families in Europe. Management of non-performing assets in Europe. Peru: deposits in soles and exchange rate expectations.

Mexico | The beginning of the end of the tightening cycle

March 29, 2017
A 50 bp “dovish” hike aimed at minimizing the probabilities of second round effects and at setting the conditions for the end of the hiking cycle

Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

March 28, 2017
We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

The first Trump era G20

March 27, 2017
The G20 meeting which was held in Baden-Baden (Germany) on 17 and 18 March was not attended in person by Trump, although his influence was very present. Certain traditional G20 messages have executed an about-turn which reflects the new US position.

Pensions and inflation: there are no free solutions

March 27, 2017
In recent weeks, we have learned of certain initiatives to repeal the reform of the 2013 pensions system, its revaluation mechanism and the sustainability factor (which kicks in from 2019), as well as others to raise pensions by 1.2% in 2017, with a revision clause if inflation outstrips this figure.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: 100th episode and GDP

March 25, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 27, 2017. Special topic: 100th episode!

U.S. | What’s behind the low supply of existing homes for sale?

March 25, 2017
The inventory of existing homes for sale has declined y-o-y for 21 consecutive months. Locked low mortgage interest rates and short supply of new housing have contributed to the current situation. The high share of homeowners underwater does not seem to currently play a major role. Low unsold inventory is expected to persist, underscoring the need for new housing units

China consumption trends 2017

March 24, 2017
China has rapidly transitioned from a predominantly lower-middle class society to a middle, upper-middle and Affluent class society over past decade. Recent years have seen rising disposable incomes for high-income Chinese households, boosting demand for high value products – A visible shift from mass to premium.

Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

March 24, 2017
After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

Balearic Islands Economic Outlook 2017

March 22, 2017
The economy of the Balearic Islands grew 3.2% in 2016, and will still grow 2.6% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, creating some 32,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Recovering pre-crisis per capita income, and creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

U.S. | Big data analysis: Trump effect on trade narratives

March 22, 2017
Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration

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