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February PMIs show the recovery gains momentum while headwinds loom large

March 1, 2017
China’s official manufacturing PMI picked up to 51.6 in February from 51.3 in January, well above market expectations (Consensus: 51.2). Both of the manufacturing PMI outturns have been above the 50 watershed level in 7 consecutive months since last August, suggesting the economic recovery continues with a solid pace.

February PMIs show the recovery gains momentum while headwinds loom large

March 1, 2017
China’s official manufacturing PMI (released by NBS today) picked up to 51.6 in February from 51.3 in January, well above market expectations (Consensus: 51.2).Both of the manufacturing PMI outturns have been above the 50 watershed level in 7 consecutive months since last August , suggesting the economic recovery continues with a solid pace.

U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. February 2017

March 1, 2017
The FOMC minutes have reinforced the commitment to gradual rate normalization, however the pace of tightening could change if the risk of overheating the economy is perceived. The Primary Dealer’s expectations remained unchanged. Fed funds futures continue to price in two rate hikes in 2017 but imply 50-50 odds for the FOMC’s action in March

Country Risk Report. First Quarter 2017

February 28, 2017
Yet another quarter in which Financial Tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and Sovereign CDS have all been easing significantly across the board. The overall decrease in CDS spreads reduced downgrade pressures and increased upgrade ones for most countries. The decline in downgrade pressure was specially noticeable in LatAm , but it was also felt in the rest of EMs.

EAGLEs. Annual report 2016

February 27, 2017
A long term global view with a focus on MENA. The mediterranean Economies in a changing world. The world is changing its economic center of gravity from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Growth will be concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, (80% in the next ten years)

The Greek epic

February 27, 2017
We all know that tragedies are Greek, sagas Scandinavian and comic operas originally Italian, and that we use these expressions to describe political or economic reality when it overtakes us, but in the case of Greece we may have to use another word of Greek origin. The twists and turns of its debt crisis are reminiscent of those of a Homeric epic.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: personal income, personal spending and construction spending

February 25, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of February 27, 2017

Mexico | Economic pessimism and the inflation spike affect consumer confidence

February 25, 2017
The consumer confidence index fell by 26% in annual terms during January 2017, which represents the biggest annual contraction in the history of the index. More negative sentiments on both the current and future economic situation of the country were the main drivers behind the January’s sharp annual drop in the consumer confidence index

United States Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

February 24, 2017
Administration’s agenda has the potential to boost U.S. economy, but high degree of uncertainty remains. For the time being, the Fed’s appetite for higher growth and inflation may be limited. However, normalization path to remain gradual. Mix of policies and timing could produce distinct group of winners and losers at the state level

Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2017

February 24, 2017
South America will recover in 2017 after a 4-year slowdown, but in Mexico, the shock of US policy uncertainty is being received in full. The different response to uncertainty about US policies marks the divergence in the dynamics of growth in the two areas of Latin America. South America will grow by about 1% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.

Spain: towards a neutral fiscal policy in 2017 and 2018

February 23, 2017
Recent performance of public accounts and the new fiscal measures adopted at the end of the year, anticipates the compliance with the stability target of 2016. The highest deficit adjustment of 2016 was recorded in autonomous communities. The improvement in activity would have been sufficient to bring the public imbalance into line with the targets set for 2017 and 2018.

Argentina Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

February 23, 2017
The economy began to recover in 4Q16 and will grow 2.8% in 2017 driven by investment. The downward stickiness of core inflation and the increase in tariffs will keep inflation at 20.8% YoY in 2017, and the CB in a tight stance. 2017 financial needs at USD 40 billion to be covered by debt issues will result in capital inflows and tend to appreciate the real exchange rate

Eurozone | A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections

February 23, 2017
Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth to reach 0.5% QoQ in 1Q (2H16: 0.4%) as improving confidence at the start of 2017 suggest that the recovery could be gaining momentum in 1Q17. We have revised slightly upward our growth projections to 1.6% this year and next, though political risks persist.

Turkey economic outlook. First quarter 2017

February 23, 2017
Global conditions improve but some uncertainties remain. Turkish economic activity gradually recovers after the slump in the third quarter of 2016. The Central Bank tightened monetary policy to contain exchange rate and inflationary pressures. The New National Accounts reveal higher potential output for the Turkish Economy

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