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Crossroads, trends and challenges in an uncertain world

November 28, 2017
Long-term drivers in a troublesome world: geopolitics are extremely troubling, populism is rising and is here to stay, long term economic facts, protectionism is a still a (high) risk, digitalization and robotics are all around and macro policy framework is changing.

Eurozone | Improved outlook, still subdued inflation

November 28, 2017
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth pace in 4Q (0.6%/0.7% QoQ), so far supported by very strong confidence, with more mixed signals from hard data. Positive incoming data, mostly from Germany, pose an upward bias to our growth outlook. Both headline and core inflation eased and remain subdued in October, while our forecasts continue at 1.5% and 1.2% for 2017-18.

From inspiration to action: COP24

November 27, 2017
Climate change as a result of human activity is a fact, as is its impact on the economy and the financial system. In this last area its has evolved from being a reputational consideration into the study of how to manage the physical risks and transitional risks.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: home prices

November 25, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of November 27, 2017. Special topic: home prices

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 24 November 2017

November 24, 2017
Highlights: FSB published 2017 updated G-SIB list, while BCBS disclosed additional information on the assessment. The Council of the EU decided to relocate EBA to Paris, and adopted STS securitisation rules. Finally, EBA published final guide on IRB risk parameter estimation, and 2018 stress test methodology.

Economic growth will allow to reduce public deficit below 3% of GDP in 2018

November 24, 2017
The recovery of activity and a strong control of spending are driving fiscal adjustment. In this context, the probability of fulfilling the 2017 objective is high. Spain will exit the excessive deficit protocol in 2018. However, imbalances - that require that the fiscal discipline continues - persist.

Global | Global growth continues on a strong footing

November 24, 2017
Global GDP growth slowed slightly in 3Q to 0.9% QoQ, but our BBVA-GAIN model suggests the solid global recovery continues in 4Q (1% QoQ). Confidence indicators improved further while industrial output and retail sales moderated in 3Q and global trade provided further signals of stabilization. Global inflation remained stable in October, accelerating in EM but slowing in DM

The impact of technological change and the future of employment

November 24, 2017
This presentation provides a panoramic and historical perspective on the the effects of technical progress; it analyses the effects of the fourth industrial revolution; and talks about the different policies to regulate the changes of this technological and digital transformation.

Colombia | Financing housing: challenges in formalisation and banking

November 23, 2017
The construction sector will be decisive in the new growth recovery cycle. The housing deficit, low rates of home ownership, the rise of the middle class and demographic conditions will help consolidate the housing sector.

Peru | Advances in digitalisation

November 23, 2017
Peru is still lagging behind the region in the process of digitalisation. However, there have been advances such as the increased use of the internet by families, a reduction in the concentration of companies offering internet services and improvements in infrastructure. Going forward, it is anticipated that these favourable trends will continue.

A reduction in corporation tax in the US would not reverse Mexico’s competitive advantage in manufacturing

November 23, 2017
Mexico would continue to be more competitive than the United States in the production of manufactured goods even if the latter country were to cut its corporation tax rate from 35% to 20% The difference in labour costs alone is sufficient for Mexico to remain more competitive than the US.

U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook. Fourth quarter 2017

November 23, 2017
The replacement of vehicles damaged or destroyed by recent hurricanes boosted auto sales in September and October. However, after the one-time effect of hurricanes recedes, sales of new vehicles are likely to return to a more modest path due to rising interest rates and lower prices of pre-owned units

U.S. | Technology Puts the Consumer in the Driver’s Seat for Shaping Industries

November 23, 2017
Digital technology will continue to empower consumers, granting them deeper product and pricing transparency, control over different layers of the value chain, and refinement of experiences. Survivalist mode will compel consumers to search for new ways to be frugal, facilitating the next-generation of the sharing economy

Paraguay Economic Outlook 2017

November 22, 2017
The Paraguayan economy will grow 3.7% this year and 3.5% in 2018. Thus, it will remain as one of the fastest-growing economy in the region. The forecast for the next year is conditioned on a positive external environment and on the dynamisim of the pubic investment. Mid-term challenges remain in place and need to be tackle to reassure a strong and less volatile GDP growth.