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The impact of technological change and the future of employment

March 1, 2018
In this presentation, held at the 4th Tax and Finance Law Meeting at the Tax Studies Institute, an overview and history are given of the effects of technological progress. The effects of Industrial Revolution 4.0 are analysed and public policies are addressed, as well as the management of technological and digital transformation.

Valencian Community Economic Outlook. First half 2018

February 28, 2018
The economy of Valencian Community grew 3.2% in 2017 and will grow 2.4% both in 2018 and 2019. This will add around 100,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 13.3%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

China | A preview of the NPC and CPPC sessions

February 28, 2018
On March 5th, Chinese lawmakers will convene at Beijing for the National People’s Congress. The Premier will announce key economic targets for 2018, including growth, CPI, M2 and fiscal budget etc. Although there will be personnel change for the PBoC governor, the PBoC will maintain prudent monetary policy stance. Tax cut and property tax are expected to be discussed.

Eurozone | Strong growth continues in 1Q18 but confidence seems to peak

February 28, 2018
GDP growth moderated in 4Q17 but increased above potential for the third year in a row (+2.5% in 2017). Hard data improved by the end of last year but sentiment indicators moderated in February. Our MICA-BBVA model estimates an upturn in growth to around 0.6/0.7% QoQ for 1Q18. We continue to expect a gradual slowdown over the year to a still strong growth of 2.2% in 2018.

Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America

February 27, 2018
We characterize consumer confidence cycle across LatAm using Markov-switching models. Our findings show that a core group of countries shares a statistical common ground for both confidence’s boom and bust cycle synchronisation. Notably, Argentina and Chile tend to lead consumer mood shifts, playing a leading role in propagating consumer confidence shocks throughout LatAm.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. February 2018

February 27, 2018
New tool to analyse conditions in the credit card market. Banco de México modifies the definition of monetary aggregates and introduces new indicators. Mortgage interest rates in line with long-term rates. Financial market volatility picks up.

Where are the risks in saving?

February 26, 2018
Following the marked increase seen in 2009 (to around 9% of GDP), household savings have fallen almost to all-time lows (3.7% at the end of 2017). This has led to concerns due to the possible vulnerability of households and continued growth in consumption over the next few years.

Quo Vadis?

February 26, 2018
The three weeks that have passed since the fall in the stock markets provide an opportunity to perform a more dispassionate analysis.

Global | Growth momentum continues, with some signs of exhaustion in confidence levels

February 24, 2018
Global growth slows slightly in 4Q17, but remains robust. According to our GAIN-model, GDP is projected to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18 after 0.9% in 4Q17. Strong momentum is shared by the three main areas, but confidence may have reached its peak in the Eurozone. Core inflation showed slight upward pressures in advanced economies.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 23 February 2018

February 23, 2018
Highlights: U.S. Treasury published report on Orderly Liquidation Authority. BCBS published practices on the implication of FinTech development for banks. IOSCO issued consultation report to address conflicts of interest in the equity capital raising process. Finally, FCA and CFTC signed arrangement to collaborate on FinTech innovation.

Mexico Real Estate Outlook. First half 2018

February 22, 2018
The trend in construction continues to show lower growth than that of the economy in general. In the third quarter, the fall of the accumulated GDP of the sector is -1.2% as an annual rate, largely due to civil works, which have fallen by 11%. Building will close with a growth of 0.5%. Civil works will not rebound due to the adjustments in public expenditure.

Big Data at BBVA Research

February 22, 2018
Big Data Workshop on economics and finance. Bank of Spain: 1. Opportunities in the digital era. Big Data at BBVA Research; 2. Big Data & Big Models: Applying Big Data at BBVA Research (BBVA Data, News Data (GDELT), Policy Documents).

Banking Outlook. February 2018

February 21, 2018
While the deleveraging of the banking system appears to be nearing its end, the number of employees and branches in the sector continues to fall. Solvency and asset quality have further improved. Income remains somewhat weak affected by current interest rates and spending is controlled, but the sector is feeling the impact of the Banco Popular resolution.