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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - January Update

February 7, 2017
Pro-regime forces took full control of Aleppo, while ISIS retook Palmyra. Russian military operations intensified during the month. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Iraqi security forces recaptured eastern Mosul. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine

Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. January 2017

February 6, 2017
Emerging Market (EMs) bank lending conditions worsened in 2016Q4. Funding conditions in EM deteriorated in 2016Q4 as a consequence of a tighter liquidity environment. International funding conditions deteriorated mostly in Turkey. The average funding rate of the CBRT increased sharply during the month (more than 200 bp).

Spain | Moderation of sales does not reach building

February 6, 2017
The sale of housing maintains the moderation of growth of the last months. However, the determinants of demand remained robust, and so it seems that they will continue, after knowing the employment data and consumer confidence for the month of January. At the moment, the behavior of sales does not affect the construction activity that continues exhibiting a robust growth

Algorithms, key intangible assets in the finance industry

February 6, 2017
An algorithm is a sequenced series of instructions in which certain inputs are transformed into outputs; in other words a procedure for solving problems by following precise instructions. Its uses in the financial sector are varied: from enhancing the user experience and the offer of personalised services to fast, automated decision making and operating efficiency.

U.S. | Weekly Podcast: Consumer Credit, Job Openings and Consumer Sentiment

February 4, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of February 6, 2017. Special topic: Consumer credit trends

Turkey: Inflation Surged on Food & Energy

February 3, 2017
Annual headline inflation surprised on the upside to 9.2% from 8.5% in December. The main drivers behind the surge were food inflation (harsh weather conditions) and higher energy prices, while FX pass-through has showed only minor signs of impact on the core so far.

China | On the way to the floating regime: RMB is set to depreciate

February 3, 2017
We believe the exchange rate regime of the RMB will ultimately shift to a floating one as other major economies in the world. The floating of the RMB could come in the second half of 2018. Although certain degree of currency overshooting is inevitable, the final floating will help China’s economy restore its external balance and push up the exchange rate in the long run.

Mexico | Remittances to Mexico reach an all-time high of US$26.97 billion

February 3, 2017
In December 2016 remittances to Mexico amounted to US2,336.4 million, 6.2% more than in December 2015. Total remittances for 2016 reached an all-time high of US$26.97 billion, 8.8% more than in 2015 and surpassing the previous (2007) record of US$26.06 billion

Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor. January 2017

February 2, 2017
The Central Bank increased the average funding rate over 10% in the face of exchange rate and inflation pressures. Our GDP indicator signals a gradual recovery, rendering our 2.3% 2016 growth forecast feasible.

U.S. | State Monthly Activity Indexes. December 2016

February 2, 2017
In December, activity increased in 44 states, with strongest gains in the West. Activity decelerated in the Sunbelt, despite pickups in the manufacturing, mining, and retail trade sectors. Despite a strong dollar and weak exports, manufacturing activity to benefit from improved domestic demand.

U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. January 2017

February 1, 2017
The FOMC meeting that will be concluding on February 1st is unlikely to deliver a lift in the policy rate. Chair Yellen’s remarks have re-emphasized that it is “prudent to adjust the stance of monetary policy gradually over time”

Mexico | Bank deposits: higher growth driven by demand deposits

February 1, 2017
In November 2016, the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 14.8%, 2.3 percentage points higher than the previous month (12.6%), and 2.5 percentage points higher than recorded the same month of the previous year

U.S. | What's in Store for Consumer Credit?

February 1, 2017
The ratio of consumer credit excluding student loans to household assets is historically low. The slowdown in the growth of student debt opens opportunities for releveraging in the other consumer credit categories, especially credit cards and unsecured personal loans

Target2 imbalances are rising, should we worry?

January 31, 2017
Target2 imbalances are reaching 2012 levels, linked to the ECB APP and not to the stress in financial markets. However, this imbalance poses some questions on how the APP is working and on EZ fragmentation.