Sunday, April 22 2018 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 7 hours 53 min ago
In this presentation, held at the 4th Tax and Finance Law Meeting at the Tax Studies Institute, an overview and history are given of the effects of technological progress. The effects of Industrial Revolution 4.0 are analysed and public policies are addressed, as well as the management of technological and digital transformation.
The economy of Valencian Community grew 3.2% in 2017 and will grow 2.4% both in 2018 and 2019. This will add around 100,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 13.3%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.
On March 5th, Chinese lawmakers will convene at Beijing for the National People’s Congress. The Premier will announce key economic targets for 2018, including growth, CPI, M2 and fiscal budget etc. Although there will be personnel change for the PBoC governor, the PBoC will maintain prudent monetary policy stance. Tax cut and property tax are expected to be discussed.
GDP growth moderated in 4Q17 but increased above potential for the third year in a row (+2.5% in 2017). Hard data improved by the end of last year but sentiment indicators moderated in February. Our MICA-BBVA model estimates an upturn in growth to around 0.6/0.7% QoQ for 1Q18. We continue to expect a gradual slowdown over the year to a still strong growth of 2.2% in 2018.
We characterize consumer confidence cycle across LatAm using Markov-switching models. Our findings show that a core group of countries shares a statistical common ground for both confidence’s boom and bust cycle synchronisation. Notably, Argentina and Chile tend to lead consumer mood shifts, playing a leading role in propagating consumer confidence shocks throughout LatAm.
New tool to analyse conditions in the credit card market. Banco de México modifies the definition of monetary aggregates and introduces new indicators. Mortgage interest rates in line with long-term rates. Financial market volatility picks up.
Following the marked increase seen in 2009 (to around 9% of GDP), household savings have fallen almost to all-time lows (3.7% at the end of 2017). This has led to concerns due to the possible vulnerability of households and continued growth in consumption over the next few years.
The three weeks that have passed since the fall in the stock markets provide an opportunity to perform a more dispassionate analysis.
Global growth slows slightly in 4Q17, but remains robust. According to our GAIN-model, GDP is projected to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18 after 0.9% in 4Q17. Strong momentum is shared by the three main areas, but confidence may have reached its peak in the Eurozone. Core inflation showed slight upward pressures in advanced economies.
Highlights: U.S. Treasury published report on Orderly Liquidation Authority. BCBS published practices on the implication of FinTech development for banks. IOSCO issued consultation report to address conflicts of interest in the equity capital raising process. Finally, FCA and CFTC signed arrangement to collaborate on FinTech innovation.
The trend in construction continues to show lower growth than that of the economy in general. In the third quarter, the fall of the accumulated GDP of the sector is -1.2% as an annual rate, largely due to civil works, which have fallen by 11%. Building will close with a growth of 0.5%. Civil works will not rebound due to the adjustments in public expenditure.
Big Data Workshop on economics and finance. Bank of Spain: 1. Opportunities in the digital era. Big Data at BBVA Research; 2. Big Data & Big Models: Applying Big Data at BBVA Research (BBVA Data, News Data (GDELT), Policy Documents).
While the deleveraging of the banking system appears to be nearing its end, the number of employees and branches in the sector continues to fall. Solvency and asset quality have further improved. Income remains somewhat weak affected by current interest rates and spending is controlled, but the sector is feeling the impact of the Banco Popular resolution.