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Updated: 5 hours 8 min ago

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - April 2017 Update

May 12, 2017
Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS. The US supported the YPG's advance in Raqqa.

Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

May 12, 2017
The recession comes to an end in Brazil. Activity indicators suggest that the economy grew at a positive rate in 1Q17 following eight consecutive quarters of contraction. Likewise, we keep our 2017 GDP growth forecast at 0.9% and revise upwards, from 1.2% to 1.8%, our GDP forecast for 2018.

Canary Islands Economic Outlook 2017

May 9, 2017
The economy of the Canary Islands grew 3.5% in 2016, and will still grow to 3.5% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, creating around 60,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution may slow down. Although pre-crisis GDP level will be reached in 2018, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

China | Banking monitor

May 9, 2017
Macro-environment: Growth rebounds while markets under stress. Chinese banks performance: Still weak in 2016. Shadow banking system: Too big; too risky. Regulations outlook: Squeeze until you surrender

Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. April 2017

May 9, 2017
Thanks to public guarantees by the Credit Guarantee Fund, total credit growth of the Turkish banking sector surpassed Central Bank’s comfort target threshold of 15% reaching 15.9% YoY. Deposit interest rates increased further by 50 bps in April as a by-product of this increased momentum in especially commercial credits.

Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

May 8, 2017
We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

Spain | Real estate outlook. May 2017

May 8, 2017
The evolution of the real estate industry in the first months of the year was positive. Housing sales maintained its growth pace supported by strong employment and mortgage credit. The construction activity maintained the dynamism. Positive surprises in the macroeconomic scenario introduce an upward bias in the sector forecasts.

Turkey: Gradual Recovery Underway

May 8, 2017
Incoming data suggest the gradual recovery in economic activity is still underway. Our monthly GDP indicator signals economic activity to grow at 3.3% YoY, slightly lower than 4Q16 growth of 3.5%. We think that lagged impacts of Government incentives on top of rapid credit expansion and tax cuts will be supporting growth, especially in 2H17

U.S. | Weekly podcast: risks and opportunities in climate change

May 6, 2017
Discussion on the role of the banking industry in the fight against climate change

United States Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2017

May 6, 2017
Following the election, survey expectations began to climb at a fast pace while consumption slowed and investment remained flat. This gap widened despite limited progress on tax reform, healthcare, infrastructure, immigration and trade policy

Presentation U.S. Economic Outlook 2Q17

May 6, 2017
Economy at or near full employment. GDP growth will remain on a sustainable path. Investment gaining traction. Upward price pressures from energy and housing expected to moderate going forward. Fed more comfortable as economic indicators align with their views. Gradual policy normalization will continue. Two more 25bp rate increases in 2017

Spain | Regional watch. Second quarter 2017

May 5, 2017
The revision of Spain's GDP increase in 2017 from 2.7% to 3.0% is supported by the evolution of exports and the greater activity in residential construction. The biggest upward revisions are in the Balearics, the Canaries and Madrid, which will continue to be the most dynamic regions. In 2018 GDP will increase by 2.7%, with a lower growth heterogeneity.

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