Thursday, April 27 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 3 hours 22 min ago
After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.
The economy of the Balearic Islands grew 3.2% in 2016, and will still grow 2.6% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, creating some 32,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Recovering pre-crisis per capita income, and creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.
Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration
There is still much uncertainty about the new economic policies that will eventually be implemented in the US, with three dimensions particularly relevant for Latin America: changes in policies on trade, immigration and remittances.
The abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and statements by both the president and the new US trade authorities seem to indicate that the US is turning towards bilateralism and is likely to consider the balance of trade as the variable on which to base its policies.
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 20, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. auto industry
Global GDP growth continues accelerating in Q1, though our BBVA-GAIN indicator of global growth is slightly lower than a month ago (Q4: 0.85%; Q1: 0.93%). Confidence indicators continue to be very strong and global trade gives signals of further expansion, but industrial production and especially retail sales are more moderate in early year.
The recovery of the Spanish economy continues. Quarterly GDP growth is expected to stand around 0.8% in 1Q17, compared to the 0.7% recorded at 2H16. If this forecast is confirmed, it would imply a slight upward bias on the 2017 growth considered in BBVA’s scenario (2.7 %). However, expectations of a slowdown relative to 2016 remain.
The outlook has improved notably in the last two months. There are still two possible outcomes, but things are now more likely to go well
Slightly below market and our expectations, the Central Bank (CBRT) increased late liquidity window (LLW) rate to 11.75% from 11% and kept the rest of the interest rates constant. After already breaching double digits, expectations of further significant increase in inflation is noted as the main driver of today’s decision.
The economy of Galicia grew 3.0% in 2016, and will still grow 2.8% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, creating some 20,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Having almost recovered pre-crisis per capita income, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.
The National People's Congress is without doubt one of the most important events in China’s political calendar. This year is especially important given that the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China will take place in October, where we will oversee the most important leadership reshuffle since 2012, when Xi Jinping became president.