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Updated: 3 hours 22 min ago

Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

March 24, 2017
After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

Balearic Islands Economic Outlook 2017

March 22, 2017
The economy of the Balearic Islands grew 3.2% in 2016, and will still grow 2.6% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, creating some 32,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Recovering pre-crisis per capita income, and creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

U.S. | Big data analysis: Trump effect on trade narratives

March 22, 2017
Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration

Latin America and the US shock

March 21, 2017
There is still much uncertainty about the new economic policies that will eventually be implemented in the US, with three dimensions particularly relevant for Latin America: changes in policies on trade, immigration and remittances.

Trade is global, not a country-by-country balancing act

March 21, 2017
The abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and statements by both the president and the new US trade authorities seem to indicate that the US is turning towards bilateralism and is likely to consider the balance of trade as the variable on which to base its policies.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: auto and housing industries

March 18, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 20, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. auto industry

Global | Global growth points to 0.9%-1% in early 2017

March 18, 2017
Global GDP growth continues accelerating in Q1, though our BBVA-GAIN indicator of global growth is slightly lower than a month ago (Q4: 0.85%; Q1: 0.93%). Confidence indicators continue to be very strong and global trade gives signals of further expansion, but industrial production and especially retail sales are more moderate in early year.

Spain | The recovery continues in 2017

March 17, 2017
The recovery of the Spanish economy continues. Quarterly GDP growth is expected to stand around 0.8% in 1Q17, compared to the 0.7% recorded at 2H16. If this forecast is confirmed, it would imply a slight upward bias on the 2017 growth considered in BBVA’s scenario (2.7 %). However, expectations of a slowdown relative to 2016 remain.

Mexico is not out of the woods yet, but things could go well

March 17, 2017
The outlook has improved notably in the last two months. There are still two possible outcomes, but things are now more likely to go well

Turkey: Central Bank strengthened tightening

March 17, 2017
Slightly below market and our expectations, the Central Bank (CBRT) increased late liquidity window (LLW) rate to 11.75% from 11% and kept the rest of the interest rates constant. After already breaching double digits, expectations of further significant increase in inflation is noted as the main driver of today’s decision.

Galicia Economic Outlook 2017

March 14, 2017
The economy of Galicia grew 3.0% in 2016, and will still grow 2.8% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, creating some 20,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Having almost recovered pre-crisis per capita income, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

China, a balance between growth, risks and globalisation

March 14, 2017
The National People's Congress is without doubt one of the most important events in China’s political calendar. This year is especially important given that the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China will take place in October, where we will oversee the most important leadership reshuffle since 2012, when Xi Jinping became president.

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