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U.S. | Weekly podcast: credit cards, inflation, FOMC meeting and housing

September 17, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 18, 2017. Special topic: outlook for the credit card business

The global economy stabilizes and reaches a robust and synchronized growth pace

September 16, 2017
Global GDP accelerated slightly in 2Q17 (1% QoQ) while recent data suggest that it could maintain its dynamism in 2H17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1%). Both industrial output and exports have disappointed at the beginning of 3Q, but forward-looking indicators suggest a still positive outlook. All in all, the global economy shows improved synchronization across major blocks.

Business cycle phases in Spain

September 16, 2017
We characterize regional business cycles for Spain using monthly Social Security affiliations. Based on a set of Markov-switching models, we find substantial synchronization of regional business cycles, which has increased since the Great Recession. We do however evidence a regional leading and lagging performance that repeats itself across the different recessions.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 15 September 2017

September 15, 2017
Highlights: The European Commission published the State of the Union 2017. The CNMV extended the short selling ban on Liberbank and approved a compensation mechanism for retail investors in the resolution of Banco Popular. Finally, the BCBS and EBA published monitoring reports on Basel III and CRR / CRD IV capital and liquidity requirements.

U.S. | Credit cards: trends, profitability and outlook

September 15, 2017
Credit card debt continues expanding at a solid pace, while fundamentals remain favorable. Credit cards can be more profitable than other banking operations but also riskier. We expect credit card debt growth to moderate. Competition will intensify, particularly on rewards, incentives and benefits

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Mexican Financial System. September 2017

September 15, 2017
Housing prices rise 6.88% in the second half of 2017. The Bank of Mexico announces a slow-down in the economy’s financing sources and uses. The rate of growth of the personal loan portfolio continues to slow. Credit card financing consolidated its recovery in 2016

Mexico | 2018 Fiscal Program: proposal of fiscal consolidation effort of 0.5% of GDP

September 15, 2017
The program is based on realistic economic assumptions. The continuation of fiscal consolidation is positive. The budget will mean that debt as a percentage of GDP will continue to decline in 2018

The Central Bank of Turkey remains tight

September 14, 2017
The Central Bank maintained its interest rate corridor once again parallel to our call and market consensus. The Bank keeps its hawkish tone as it also finds the high levels of both the headline and core inflation alarming over pricing behavior. We expect the Bank not to find room for monetary easing until the end of 1Q18, when the headline will fall towards 8-8.5%.

China | Early fruits of corporate deleveraging add to growth resilience

September 13, 2017
The total debt level of China’s corporate sector remain a great concern. However, some firm-level indicators have shown improvement in the indebtedness of non-SOEs. The early fruits of corporate deleveraging have reinforced our confidence in China’s economic prospect, but there is still a long way to cover before declaring a decisive victory of the deleveraging campaign.

Mexico | Is it the end of DACA for 800,000 Dreamers? 630,000 are Mexicans

September 13, 2017
The DHS will not be accepting new DACA applications and after 5 October there will be no further renewals. The underway initial and renewal requests will continue to be processed and will not be affected, and the current DACA benefits and work permits will be maintained until their expiration, which could be in up to 24 months

Mexico | Bank deposits: less dynamism due to lower growth in its term segment

September 13, 2017
In June 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 10.8%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month and 3.6 percentage points lower than the same month of the previous year

Turkey: Robust 2Q GDP growth, as expected

September 11, 2017
2Q17 GDP growth came in at 5.1% yoy, just in line with our expectation. Investment and private consumption were the main contributors whilst government spending contribution was negative for the first time in 9 quarters. We expect even a higher growth performance in 2H so risks on our 2017 forecast are on the upside.

Taxes, growth and social welfare

September 11, 2017
As Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. stated in 1904, and as appears inscribed on the façade of the US Internal Revenue Service Building, “taxes are what we pay for a civilized society”. However, it is difficult to answer the question of whether we pay too much or too little without taking into account what we receive in return.

Europe’s exit from QE

September 11, 2017
At its meeting this week, the ECB decided to hold off until October before making a statement on withdrawing monetary stimuli. With the question of when decided, this now leaves the next unknown to be clarified: the matter of how this will be done. The process is a complex one, since it encompasses several different aspects, and the ECB is not giving any clues.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: Libor, inflation and retail sales

September 9, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 11, 2017. Special topic: transitioning away from Libor