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Mexico | The peso still has room for further appreciation

June 13, 2017
The past few months have seen very high volatility in Mexico’s financial variables, and particularly in the exchange rate. Whereas from 8 November when Donald Trump was elected president of the US to the end of January the peso depreciated more than any other currency in the world, from then until now it has gained more than any other currency

The Future of Employment

June 12, 2017
The technological and digital transformation under way, known as the fourth industrial revolution, has given rise to intense debate about its effects on employment. Opinions are divided.

Turkey: Another Positive Growth Surprise

June 12, 2017
1Q17 GDP surprised positively by growing 5% YoY compared to the market (3.4%) and our expectations (3.2%). Net exports and public spending were the main drivers of growth while the positive surprise factor was the solid private consumption growth. The risks on our 3% whole year growth forecast are clearly on the upside.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: inflation, retail sales and the upcoming FOMC meeting

June 10, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of June 12, 2017. Special topic: upcoming FOMC meeting

Mexico | Bank deposits: lower growth in demand and term segments

June 10, 2017
In March 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 11.3%, 3.2 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.6 percentage points lower than the same month of the previous year

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 9 June 2017

June 9, 2017
Highlights: The SRB carried out its first resolution with Banco Popular. The European Commission presented the Capital Markets Union Mid-Term Review. The ESRB published its Shadow Banking Monitor report. Finally, the Financial Choice Act was passed in the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress.

Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. May 2017

June 9, 2017
High momentum in commercial credits of Turkish banking sector supported by Credit Guarantee Fund continued in May, carrying credit Growth (YoY) to 17.3% level. On consumer credits side, housing and general purpose loans (GPL) remained strong. Continuing rise in deposit interest rates indicates the increased demand for deposits in this high credit growth environment.

ECB Watch: A first tweak in the forward guidance

June 9, 2017
The ECB remove the easing bias on rates. Growth projections are more positive while the inflation outlook remains unchanged despite lower headline inflation projections. In September, we expect the ECB to open the door to tapering next year

An Index of Regulatory Practices for Financial Inclusion in Latin America

June 9, 2017
The index assesses and compares the quality of regulations that influence financial inclusion in 8 Latin American countries. It defines three categories of regulatory practices: the enablers, which determine the overall quality of the financial environment; the promoters, which deal with specific market frictions; and the preventers which create distortions and barriers.

Turkey: IP signals private demand recovery

June 8, 2017
April industrial production (IP) data signals that the economic activity is gaining momentum in 2Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator confirms this with a growth rate close to 4% YoY by April, marginally higher than our 1Q17 growth expectation of 3.2%. All in all, we maintain our 2017 growth estimate at 3% with risks on the upside.

Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2017

June 7, 2017
The economy of Madrid grew 3.7% in 2016, and will still grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 135,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 10.4%. Although pre-crisis GDP and GDP per head level have already been recovered, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Chile | Another disappointment in activity: montly GDP growth of (just) 0.1% YoY

June 7, 2017
The IMACEC for April rose by 0.1% YoY, marking a difficult start to the quarter. Three fewer working days in the month than in April 2016, including one compulsory official holiday for the census, had a negative impact, but the figure could also be signalling a somewhat sharper slowdown. In any case, non-mining IMACEC decreased by 0.1% on the previous month

U.S. | From bricks to clicks: e-commerce of today

June 6, 2017
E-commerce has enjoyed rapid growth both in quantity and in variety. Still, both online only and traditional brick-and-mortar retailers are important players for total retail sales. In the future, brick-and-mortar stores should make better use of human resources and focus on high value-added services

Mexico | Credit to companies underpins the dynamism of credit to the private sector

June 6, 2017
In April 2017, the outstanding balance of commercial banking loans to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 16.0% (9.6% real), 0.9 percentage points higher than the rate observed in the previous month (15.1%) and above the one recorded in April 2016 (13.8%)