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Spain | Housing price growth slowed in 1Q18

June 6, 2018
1Q18 ended with a greater increase in home sales than previous quarters, despite the contraction seen in March. This increase encouraged housing prices to rise, although at slower rates and with heightened regional heterogeneity, according to appraisals. Housing investment, for its part, rose sharply in 1Q18.

Murcia Economic Outlook 2018

June 6, 2018
The economy of the Canary Islands grew by 3.3% in 2017, and will continue growing by a further 3.3% in 2018 and by 2.6% in 2019. The region will create around 30,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.

From words to action: Recent regulatory reforms in the U.S.

June 6, 2018
The U.S. has embarked in path to ease its financial regulation. The process includes a revision of certain rules by regulators, and also a major legislative change that provides relief for the industry. Overall, these changes seek to make the framework more efficient. But the process should respect global standards to preserve financial stability and a level playing field.

China | Reignited China-US trade war and its implication on global value chain

June 6, 2018
We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries on the same global value chain.

Mexico | New all-time record for remittances in April: US$2,716.9 million

June 5, 2018
Remittances grew by 17.9% YoY, reaching a new all-time high of US$2,716.9 million, the biggest monthly amount ever received in Mexico.

Mexico faced with global financial volatility

June 5, 2018
The global economy is going through a spell of rising interest rates in the USA, with the dollar strengthening and international oil prices rising. In the past, this combination of events has led to periods of financial turbulence and capital outflows from emerging markets, which Mexico has not been able to avoid.

Spain | Deciding factors in the 2017 economic cycle

June 5, 2018
This watch is evaluating the structural factors that shed light on the cyclical behaviour of the Spanish economy in 2017, estimating how they contributed to the annual growth rate of macroeconomic variables such as GDP or salaries.

Turkey | Inflation outlook deteriorated further in May

June 4, 2018
Consumer prices increased 1.62% (mom) in May, slightly higher than BBVA Research & Consensus estimate of 1.45%. Annual consumer inflation jumped to 12.15% from 10.85% on a broad-based worsening. We expect a limited hike (around 50bps) in its next meeting on June, 7 to strengthen its recent policy decisions and enhance credibility.

Andalusia Economic Outlook. First half 2018

June 4, 2018
The economy of Andalusia grew 2.7% in 2017 and will grow 2.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. This will add around 190,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 19.8%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge

SBBS: Low risk without mutualisation?

June 4, 2018
Last week the European Commission presented a proposal for developing a new class of low-risk assets denominated in euros. SBBS, or sovereign bond-backed securities, are securitisations backed by a set of sovereign bonds of euro zone countries. Each SBBS would thus incorporate an exposure to a small part of sovereign bonds of each euro zone Member State.

Financial and Fiscal Shocks in the Great Recession and Recovery of the Spanish Economy

June 4, 2018
In this paper we develop and estimate a new Bayesian DSGE model for the Spanish economy that has been designed to evaluate different structural reforms.

Italy and the euro

June 4, 2018
The trigger leading to the sharp market reaction was on the one hand the manifesto of the coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League, which included disproportionate fiscal expansion. All Italian parties had made extravagant fiscal promises, but had not envisaged sticking to them when forming a government.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update 1 June 2018

June 1, 2018
EBA and ESMA issue a joint communication on financial instruments used for resolution held by retail investors. EBA issues ITS on supervisory disclosure. ESMA issues guide regarding anti-procyclicality margin measures for CCPs. CNMV adopts guidelines to assess suitability of management body members. Finally, FRB issues proposal to amend the Volcker Rule.

Europe | Funding before and in resolution

May 31, 2018
Funding before and in resolution. A proposal for a funding in resolution mechanism