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Updated: 2 hours 21 min ago

U.S. | Banking outlook 1Q17

March 7, 2017
Deposit and loan growth is expected to remain strong amid solid portfolio quality. Banks should benefit from some regulatory relief, even if large legislative changes take time to pass. Profitability will continue to improve and could be further boosted by lower corporate tax rates

Mexico Economic Outlook First Quarter 2017

March 7, 2017
Rise in inflation, interest rates and lower investment will shape internal demand. The economy will grow by 1.0% in 2017. The close commercial relations between Mexico and the US benefit both countries, so we believe that there will be no structural change in their relationship, thus allowing economic growth to recover in 2018

Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. February 2017

March 7, 2017
Total credit growth rate of the Turkish banking sector continues to hover between 11%-12% and the recent trend signals that it is moving to the Central Bank's comfort target (15%). Retail interest rate decreases have stopped as the Central Bank has tightened the monetary policy. Consumer credits is losing momentum but still robust.

Shadow banking: time to step out into the light

March 7, 2017
The avalanche of banking regulation has had as a side effect an increase in the growth of shadow banking. This business has been favoured by laxer regulation and supervision. In fact there is no uniform international supervision or regulation, nor is there a transparent and exhaustive macroprudential framework.

Spain | Second consecutive year of housing price growth

March 6, 2017
Housing sales grew in December and allowed to close 2016 with an increase of 13.5% per year. Housing prices grew at slower pace, 1.5% year-on-year in 4Q16, and accumulates nine quarters of consecutive increases. New housing permits contracted in December, but 2016 ended with an annual growth of 28.9%

U.S. | Weekly podcast: jobs, jobs, jobs

March 4, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 6, 2017. Special topic: the labor market

Turkey: Inflation Breached Double Digits

March 3, 2017
Annual consumer prices inflation breached double digits for the first time since March 2012 and rose to 10.1% in February, as monthly inflation came in at 0.8% higher than market consensus and our expectation. Pass-through from exchange rate depreciation and higher energy prices,as well as increasing food inflation were the main drivers behind the continuum of upward trend

White Paper on the future of Europe

March 3, 2017
The European Commission presented its White Paper on the future of Europe. It draws five different scenarios: business as usual, retreat to a pure single market, a variable geometry union, a more efficient union, and a deeper union. The paper clarifies the debate, draws clear pathways to choose, and introduces the debate on what exactly the EU27 should or should not do.

Mexico | Remittances start 2017 with an increase of 6.3%

March 3, 2017
The US$26.97 billion of remittances received by Mexico in 2016 surpassed inward Foreign Direct Investment for the year (US$26.74 billion), income from tourism (US$19.57 billion) and oil exports (US$18.74 billion)

Central Bank Digital Currencies: assessing implementation possibilities and impacts

March 2, 2017
Following advances in the distributed ledger technology, central banks are assessing the issuance of digital currency. There's a range of possible schemes to adopt depending on which features of cash to hold: universality, anonymity and non-yield bearing. We analyze opportunities and challenges of 4 key schemes, that support a strategy of gradual testing and implementation

Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor. February 2017

March 2, 2017
Turkish Lira appreciated against the hard currencies, both thanks to local and global factors. Our monthly GDP model points at 1.9% YoY growth in 4Q16 and we forecast a gradual recovery in the beginning of 2017.

China | Monetary Policy: New Framework, New Stance

March 2, 2017
The People’s Bank of China is establishing a “corridor system” as its new monetary policy framework.The central bank will align the policy rate target with their desired levels via open market operation (OMO).In this year,the stance of monetary policy is likely to be prudent in real sense.

Turkey: Inflation Surged on Food and Energy

March 1, 2017
Turkish Lira appreciated against the hard currencies, both thanks to local and global factors. Our monthly GDP model points at 1.9% YoY growth in 4Q16 and we forecast a gradual recovery in the beginning of 2017.

Aragon Economic Outlook. First semester 2017

March 1, 2017
The economy of Aragón grew 3.3% in 2016, and will slow down to 2.9% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, creating some 20,000 new jobs in those two years. External factors slow down internal demand. Having almost recovered pre-crisis per capita income, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

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