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China | From Great Miracle to Great Moderation: Potential GDP estimation of China

January 10, 2018
In the recently concluded 19th Party’s National Congress, the authorities have come up with a two-stage development plan. Using traditional Cobb-Douglas production function to gauge China’s potential GDP, we found China’s per capita GDP can increase to USD 21,000 (constant price of today) by 2035, in line with the authorities’ target of achieving “social modernization”.

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - December 2017

January 9, 2018
Middle East continues to be at the heart of geopolitical tensions. The dispute over Jerusalem has intensified once again after the U.S. decided to move its embassy to Jerusalem. Protests erupted in Iran against the regime amid of unfulfilled promises. North Korea faced new sanctions, but some rapprochement between North and South Korea was observed.

Turkey: IP implies strong growth in 4Q

January 8, 2018
IP grew by 7.0% yoy in November (cal. adj.) in line with expectations. After growing 10% in 3Q, yearly IP growth rate in October-November moderated to 7.2%. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 6.8% yoy in December, implying a whole year growth rate slightly above 7% in 2017.

Dear Wise Men

January 8, 2018
I understand that it is too late for the gifts to arrive on time for the 6th, but not all of them are needed tomorrow. I would like to ask you for a little help so that the global economic scenario of 2018 can end up looking like what we are hoping for: high levels of well-synchronised growth among the main geographical areas of the world.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: retail sales, consumption and consumer credit

January 6, 2018
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of January 8, 2018

Mexico | Remittances fall 4.7% in November, but will end the year at a record high

January 6, 2018
2017 has been a year of ups and downs for remittances: from January to November there were 3 months with falls and 8 with increases. This is partly due to Mexican immigrants' fear of possible deportation or restrictions on remittances and changes in US trade (NAFTA) and tax policies since Trump’s election victory.

Turkey: Another pick-up in core inflation

January 3, 2018
Consumer prices increased by 0.69% (mom) in December 2017, higher than median market expectation and BBVA-GB forecast (both 0.5%). We expect the headline to ease towards slightly below 10% by the end of 1Q and stay close to these levels until 4Q before falling to around 9% at the end of the year.

China: Vulnerability sentiment ends 2017 on a high note

January 3, 2018
Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) ended 2017 on a high note, extending previous gains, underpinned by the shift in policy focus towards quality of growth, PBOC’s prudent monetary policy stance, a stable yuan and ongoing efforts to curb risks to financial stability emanating from housing, SOE and the shadow banking sector.

2017 Geopolitics: Lost in Transition

January 3, 2018
For a further year, geopolitical events have continued to occupy the lead stories on the world’s traditional and digital media. We shouldn’t be surprised by this, if we accept that global geopolitics is in a state of transition and that the spaces left by certain actors are being rapidly filled by others.

The financial markets in 2018 - key factors

January 2, 2018
The new year will probably start much as the old one ends, with the markets in positive mood. Risk appetite has been the dominant note for much of the year, except for a few brief bouts of volatility generated by political events and geopolitical tensions.

A good year, with lots of doubts

January 2, 2018
The year 2017 started with plenty of uncertainty for the global economy. President Trump had just been elected, the emerging economies were not doing particularly well and Europe was facing a difficult electoral cycle, with the memory of the Brexit referendum still fresh.