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Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. April 2017

May 9, 2017
Thanks to public guarantees by the Credit Guarantee Fund, total credit growth of the Turkish banking sector surpassed Central Bank’s comfort target threshold of 15% reaching 15.9% YoY. Deposit interest rates increased further by 50 bps in April as a by-product of this increased momentum in especially commercial credits.

Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

May 8, 2017
We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

Spain | Real estate outlook. May 2017

May 8, 2017
The evolution of the real estate industry in the first months of the year was positive. Housing sales maintained its growth pace supported by strong employment and mortgage credit. The construction activity maintained the dynamism. Positive surprises in the macroeconomic scenario introduce an upward bias in the sector forecasts.

Turkey: Gradual Recovery Underway

May 8, 2017
Incoming data suggest the gradual recovery in economic activity is still underway. Our monthly GDP indicator signals economic activity to grow at 3.3% YoY, slightly lower than 4Q16 growth of 3.5%. We think that lagged impacts of Government incentives on top of rapid credit expansion and tax cuts will be supporting growth, especially in 2H17

U.S. | Weekly podcast: risks and opportunities in climate change

May 6, 2017
Discussion on the role of the banking industry in the fight against climate change

United States Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2017

May 6, 2017
Following the election, survey expectations began to climb at a fast pace while consumption slowed and investment remained flat. This gap widened despite limited progress on tax reform, healthcare, infrastructure, immigration and trade policy

Presentation U.S. Economic Outlook 2Q17

May 6, 2017
Economy at or near full employment. GDP growth will remain on a sustainable path. Investment gaining traction. Upward price pressures from energy and housing expected to moderate going forward. Fed more comfortable as economic indicators align with their views. Gradual policy normalization will continue. Two more 25bp rate increases in 2017

Spain | Regional watch. Second quarter 2017

May 5, 2017
The revision of Spain's GDP increase in 2017 from 2.7% to 3.0% is supported by the evolution of exports and the greater activity in residential construction. The biggest upward revisions are in the Balearics, the Canaries and Madrid, which will continue to be the most dynamic regions. In 2018 GDP will increase by 2.7%, with a lower growth heterogeneity.

Mexico | Credit to the private sector: rebound at end of 1Q17 thanks to loans to companies

May 5, 2017
In March 2017, the balance of outstanding commercial banking loans to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 15.2% (9.3% real), 2.2 percentage points higher than the rate observed in the previous month (12.9%) and the rate recorded In March 2016 (14.4%)

China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

May 4, 2017
Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain

May 4, 2017
We analyse the fiscal policy lessons from the recent recession in the Spanish economy and the options for the future. Our results indicate that budget balance and public debt trends showed clear signs of unsustainability between 2009 and 2011, with few alternatives available other than reducing the fiscal deficit.

Mexico | Remittances picked up in March, growing by 15.1%

May 4, 2017
In March 2017, US$2,520.3 million was received by Mexico in family remittances. This is the third biggest volume of remittances ever received in a single month, surpassed only by the US$2,637.7 million of October 2008 and the US$2,534.6 of May 2006

Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor. April 2017

May 3, 2017
Turkish lira appreciated mostly on local factors. Foreseeing a rising trend in inflation, the CBRT’s front-loaded tightening in April held the Turkish lira firm. On the activity side, ongoing fiscal stimulus, strong support through exports and credit growth helped GDP growth continue to be moderate in 1Q as well.

Turkey | Further Rise in Inflation as Expected

May 3, 2017
Consumer prices rose by 1.3% in line with the market consensus, but lower than our expectations (1.6%) in April. Thus, annual inflation rose further to 11.9% from 11.3%. The reason behind this month’s increase was almost entirely due to the surge in food prices. We estimate that inflation will fall into single digits in the last two months and end the year at 9%.

Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

May 3, 2017
We have revised our growth projection for this year by a percentage point to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the fact that the three local risks we indicated in our February report have finally materialised: the weather problems continued, the delay in the major infrastructure construction projects continued and finally, business confidence dropped even further.