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More growth, but with more risks

February 13, 2017
The Spanish economy is growing and creating employment. During the next two years it is likely that just over 900,000 jobs will be created and that the unemployment rate will fall to around 15% by the end of 2018. However, certain risks have arisen.

Saliendo de la esclerosis

February 13, 2017
Annualised growth of 2% last quarter, levels of confidence close to all-time highs, industrial production and exports on the rise, consumer indicators strong, unemployment rate falling for more than three years…

U.S. | Weekly Podcast: Inflation, Retail Sales and Housing Starts

February 11, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of February 13, 2017

Presentation Colombia Outlook. First Quarter 2017

February 11, 2017
The global economy is gradually accelerating on the back of United States growth. Colombia GDP growth will rise from 1.9% in 2016 to 2.4% and 3.3% in 2017 and 2018. Investment will be decisive for reaching theses figures. The progressive reduction of inflation will allow BanRep to slash rates during 2017 and 2018.

U.S. | Oil Price Outlook (February 2017)

February 10, 2017
OPEC output deal may have a limited impact on prices. Going forward, inventory correction and the lagged effect of CAPEX cuts should lead to higher prices. The recovery of U.S. shale production is expected to prevent a steep upturn in prices. Little to no upside from demand. Slow recovery and convergence to $60/bbl.

Mexico | 2% tax on remittances to Mexico?

February 10, 2017
On February 7th, Mike Rogers, Republican congressman for Alabama, said he would submit a proposal for financing the wall between the United States and Mexico. Rogers said his bill would seek to pay for the wall by various means, one of which would be the application of a 2% tax on remittances to Latin America

Banxico is set to hike the policy rate by 50bp to 6.25%…

February 9, 2017
Banxico is likely to retain a pre-emptive approach to anchor inflation expectations

Mexico | Credit to the private sector: moderates its dynamism at the end of 2016

February 9, 2017
In December 2016, the current credit balance of commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 15.3% (11.5% real), lower than the rate observed in November 2016 (17.1%)

Presentation "Brazil Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017"

February 9, 2017
After having fallen by more than 7% over the past two years, we expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The approval of a fiscal reform, lower inflation, declining interest rates, among other reasons, should pave the way for a gradual recovery. However, political tensions and failing to approve the needed social security reform could derail growth.

Turkey: A Modest and Uneven Growth in IP

February 8, 2017
The economic recovery continues to be modest with the recent data leading our monthly GDP indicator to grow at 1.9% YoY in 4Q16. IP grew by 1.3% YoY in December in calendar adjusted terms, lower than the consensus of 2.3%.

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - January Update

February 7, 2017
Pro-regime forces took full control of Aleppo, while ISIS retook Palmyra. Russian military operations intensified during the month. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Iraqi security forces recaptured eastern Mosul. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine

Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. January 2017

February 6, 2017
Emerging Market (EMs) bank lending conditions worsened in 2016Q4. Funding conditions in EM deteriorated in 2016Q4 as a consequence of a tighter liquidity environment. International funding conditions deteriorated mostly in Turkey. The average funding rate of the CBRT increased sharply during the month (more than 200 bp).

Spain | Moderation of sales does not reach building

February 6, 2017
The sale of housing maintains the moderation of growth of the last months. However, the determinants of demand remained robust, and so it seems that they will continue, after knowing the employment data and consumer confidence for the month of January. At the moment, the behavior of sales does not affect the construction activity that continues exhibiting a robust growth

Algorithms, key intangible assets in the finance industry

February 6, 2017
An algorithm is a sequenced series of instructions in which certain inputs are transformed into outputs; in other words a procedure for solving problems by following precise instructions. Its uses in the financial sector are varied: from enhancing the user experience and the offer of personalised services to fast, automated decision making and operating efficiency.