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Financial Regulation Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2017

October 10, 2017
Future trends in European banking regulation. Global regulatory framework. CRD V: state of play. Banking Union: barriers and other issues. European initiatives on NPLs. Resolution: lessons learned. CCPs in the post-Brexit era. Fintech keeps climbing up the political agenda.

Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q

October 9, 2017
In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).

The IMF Summit and not losing at cards

October 9, 2017
Next week we will know the International Monetary Fund's diagnosis of the state of the economy at its weekly meeting with the World Bank, which also brings together governors from central banks, finance ministers and representatives from the financial sector and wider civil society from around the world.

Pensions, economic growth and welfare in advanced economies

October 9, 2017
In this presentation we analyse the effects of pension systems on growth and welfare, seeking an efficient balance between contributiveness, distortions, incentives, and equality and insurance against risks. PAYG systems should remain a fundamental part of the welfare state, using notional accounts and minimum pensions to reduce inequality and the risk of social exclusion.

NAFTA: beneficial for all three countries

October 9, 2017
A few days ago, we saw the conclusion of the third round – out of the seven initially agreed - of the renegotiation process of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a positive agreement for Mexico, the United States and Canada that, since it was signed in 1994, has led to trade between these countries almost quadrupling.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: employment, manufacturing, services, inflation and retail sales

October 7, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 9, 2017. Special topic: analysis of several recently published economic indicators

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 6 October 2017

October 6, 2017
Highlights: Spanish Council of Ministers approved Decree Law to facilitate firms’ mobility. ECB issued a consultation on its NPLs guidelines, and issued an opinion on proposed regulation for CCPs supervision and authorization. BCBS issued a statement on NSFR and derivative liabilities treatment. Finally, EBA and ESMA published their corresponding workplans for 2018.

U.S. | State Monthly Activity Indexes. October 2017

October 4, 2017
Economic activity increased in 47 states, and declined in AK, DE and WV. Stronger global growth, a rebound in the mining sector and increased trade activity supporting regional growth. Florida and Texas to face headwinds from hurricanes Irma and Harvey, but effects should be transitory. Fundamentals in the Sunbelt region remain auspicious in spite of weather events

Mexico | Remittances rise 8.8% in August, in line with expectations

October 4, 2017
In August 2017, Mexico received US$2,469.3 million in family remittances. This is the highest figure ever in the receipt of remittances for a month of August. Due to the appreciation of the peso observed this year compared to 2016, in real terms remittances contracted by 1.7%. Thus, remittances have declined in real terms for three consecutive months

Mexico | The credit to the private sector raises driven by corporate credit

October 4, 2017
In August 2017, the balance of current credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 13.2% (6.2% real), 0.6 percentage points higher than the rate observed in the previous month (12.6%), but 2.8 percentage points below that registered in August 2016 (16.1%)

Inflation: Another surprise from core inflation

October 4, 2017
CPI increased by 0.65% (mom) in September. Annual consumer inflation, hence, rose to 11.2% from August’s 10.7%. Core inflation was the negative surprise, reaching 11%. Negative food inflation in contrast to its seasonal average avoided the headline to climb up further. We expect the headline to increase further before it reaches 10% at the end of 2017 with base effects.

The Spanish Labor Market: Reform Achievements and Challenges

October 3, 2017
We analyse the main characteristics of the Spanish labour market, its performance during the crisis, the macroeconomic effects of the reforms since 2012, and its challenges during the current recovery. High levels of unemployment, temporary employment and inequality call for further measures to achieve a more efficient, equitable and inclusive labour market.

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - September 2017 Update

October 3, 2017
European political arena focused the world attention in September given the German elections and the Catalonian political uncertainty after the referendum vote. North Korea crisis remained as one of the main world threats, as well as the regional instability in Middle East, which increased uncertainties after the Kurdish independency referendum results.

Earthquakes in Mexico: we are not changing our 2017 growth forecast

October 3, 2017
Besides the economic losses caused by this natural disaster, the palpable effects are limited and only relevant to very specific regions and do not represent a major change in the economic growth rates at a national level. The earthquakes did not damage the productive capacity of the economy, as productive infrastructure was largely unaffected

China: Vulnerability sentiment stays upbeat in September

October 2, 2017
Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) for September held on to its recent gains with regulators focusing on maintaining macro-financial stability ahead of the crucial 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress (CCP). Activity moderation extended in August, led by policy efforts to reduce overcapacity, curb leverage and reduce housing inventory.