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The labyrinth of the informal economy: measurement strategies and impacts

August 8, 2017
One of the factors of the greatest upheaval to a country’s economic prospects is the substantial presence of the informal economy. The aim of this paper is to articulate a detailed statistical approach to identify the significance of such factors by examining key econometric strategies and availing ourselves of several different samples for over 160 countries.

Bank and non-bank finance: natural allies

August 7, 2017
Until now financing of Spain’s private sector has come mainly from banks, as is the norm in Europe general, and particularly in countries with a large proportion of small businesses.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: infrastructure, inflation and consumer credit

August 5, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 7, 2017. Special topic: Economic effects of infrastructure policy

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 4 August 2017

August 4, 2017
Highlights: The EP approved amendments regarding the fast track for IFRS9. The EBA published a set of reports regarding banks’ funding plans. The ESRB published its annual report, and identified four systemic risks in the EU financial system. Finally, EBA issued a consultation regarding fraud reporting requirements under PSD2.

Inflation: Core inflation implies risks on the upside

August 3, 2017
Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably fall towards 9% at the end of the year.

Mexico | Remittances accumulate US$13.9 billion in the first semester,growing 4.5% in June

August 3, 2017
During June, Mexico received US$2,417 million in remittances, +4.5% over the same month last year. This is the largest amount from remittances registered for a month of June

Mexico | Credit to private sector closed the first half of the year with growth of 13.8%

August 3, 2017
In June 2017 the outstanding credit of the commercial banking sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 13.8% (7.1% real), 0.5 percentage points lower than the rate observed in the previous month (14.3%) and 2.4 points percentage points below that recorded in June 2016 (16.2%)

U.S. | Residential construction: ready for final inspection

August 3, 2017
A rebound in household formation could lead to an increase in housing demand. The supply of new units is likely to increase to 1.4 million per year from 1.2 million currently. Building restrictions in attractive metropolitan areas will support construction activity in other areas

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - July 2017 Update

August 2, 2017
North Korea increased security threats after its two long-range missile tests this month, increasing tensions with US. US approved new sanctions against Russia. As a response, Russia ordered to cut 755 US diplomatic staff and it plans to seize two US diplomatic properties. The Qatar diplomatic rift has been eased off.

International Comparative of resolution frameworks

August 1, 2017
Overview of different resolution frameworks: comparison between Europe, US, Latam and Japan.

China: Vulnerability sentiment boosted by solid economic recovery &clarified policy stance

August 1, 2017
Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved remarkably in July, in particular led by both SOE and Shadow Banking components. Meanwhile, the components of the Exchange Rate and Housing Vulnerability Index also rebounded from the previous low levels, now staying within the neighbourhood of natural level.

Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor - July 2017

August 1, 2017
Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.

China | Solid recovery continues in July

August 1, 2017
Despite a lull of moderation in April-May, China’s economic recovery has staged a comeback at mid-year. The official manufacturing PMI in July remained in the expansionary territory at 51.4 (consensus: 51.5), although slightly below the previous strong reading at 51.7. Meanwhile, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI significantly surged to 51.1 from 50.4 in the previous month。

U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. July 2017

August 1, 2017
The FOMC voted unanimously to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, between 1% and 1.25%, signaling a “relatively soon” taper of maturing Treasuries and mortgage securities reinvestments, in their July meeting

Growth in Latin America: the glass half full

July 31, 2017
Latin America will grow this year. This is good news for the region following two consecutive years of contraction, 2015 and 2016, which followed three of slowdown due to the fall in commodity prices. BBVA Research expects the region as a whole to grow by 0.8% this year and 1.7% in 2018.