Friday, May 26 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 8 hours 54 min ago
The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17
Reduced demand reflected in slower rise in house prices compared with 2016. Banco de México presents a report on competition in payroll-related services. Banco de México publishes the first report on basic indicators of lending to SMEs. New tool for analysing personal lending conditions. Renewed threats of possible withdrawal from NAFTA amid low risk-aversion environment
After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, China’s economy started to show more signs of moderation in April. Growth moderation is due in part to the authorities’ monetary prudence and tight regulations targeted at the risky shadow banking activities as well as the overheating property market.
… and to have more room to hold rates thereafter
So far this year we have seen a significant increase in inflation. From 2.1% at the end of 2015 and 3.3% at the end of 2016, we can see that annualised inflation at the end of April 2017 had increased to 5.8%, above the central bank’s 3% target and indeed above the 4% upper limit of the tolerance band
With the French presidential elections over, at least one component of the uncertainty facing Europe has been eliminated, given the pronounced anti-EU bias of some of the candidates in contention. Many other unknowns are popping up - enough to make us think that for president Emmanuel Macron getting to where he is was the easiest part and that the real challenges lie ahead
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of May 15. Special topic: April employment and inflation reports
We are continuing to forecast growth of 1.6% this year, although risks are tilted to the downside. Inflation will continue to fluctuate below 3% yoy for most of the year. Our baseline scenario envisages a depreciation of the peso. The monetary policy rate will be around 2.5% at the end of the first semester and we estimate a growth in public spending by 4%.
In February 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 14.5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, and 4.4 percentage points higher than the same month of the previous year
Treasury announces local currency issuance calendar for US$7 billion, of a total that for this year would be US$10.5 billion at most, US$1 billion less than the limit authorised by the Budget Act
Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS. The US supported the YPG's advance in Raqqa.
The recession comes to an end in Brazil. Activity indicators suggest that the economy grew at a positive rate in 1Q17 following eight consecutive quarters of contraction. Likewise, we keep our 2017 GDP growth forecast at 0.9% and revise upwards, from 1.2% to 1.8%, our GDP forecast for 2018.
The economy of the Canary Islands grew 3.5% in 2016, and will still grow to 3.5% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, creating around 60,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution may slow down. Although pre-crisis GDP level will be reached in 2018, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.