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Spain | 2Q17 indicators point to upward bias in growth

June 20, 2017
The Spanish economy gained traction throughout the first half of the year. Quarterly GDP growth is estimated to accelerate up to 1.0% in 2Q17. If this forecast is confirmed, it would imply an upward bias in growth considered in BBVA’s scenario (0.8% QoQ) for the current quarter and (3.0%) for the whole of 2017.

La Rioja Economic Outlook 2017

June 20, 2017
The economy of La Rioja grew 1.5% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 2.9% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 5,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 10.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Yellen steers the markets

June 19, 2017
On Wednesday 14 June, the Federal Reserve stayed true to the script by raising interest rates to 1.25%, although there was more to the move than just the rate hike. There are at least three elements from the recent meeting on monetary policy which deserve special mention.

What kind of Brexit can now be expected?

June 19, 2017
A few weeks ago the majority of analysts were saying that Theresa May’s real motive in calling early elections in the UK was to strengthen her majority against the hardest wing of her party. This would have enabled her to accept “softer” conditions in a possible agreement on Brexit.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: new and existing home sales

June 17, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of June 19, 2017. Special topic: review of the most recent economic developments

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 16 June 2017

June 16, 2017
Highlights: Council agreement on creditor hierarchy, IFRS9 and large exposures. U.S. Treasury publishes report on financial regulation, EC proposes amendments to EMIR in relation to Central Counterparties, ECB publishes Macroprudential bulletin and a memorandum of understanding with the Office of Financial Research.

Global | The recovery shows signs of stabilisation

June 16, 2017
Global GDP growth continues to improve in Q2 (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) but with signs of stabilization. Confidence data remain very strong, but are levelling off and the upward trend in exports and industrial output has moderated at the beginning of Q2. Moreover, the latest data suggest that positive signs are shifting from the US and China to Europe and other emerging economies

Turkey | The CBRT Keeps the Hawkish Tone

June 15, 2017
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the entire set of its interest rate corridor unchanged. The Bank also preserved the hawkish tone by over looking the expected disinflationary impacts of the fall in energy prices and partial correction in food prices. We expect the Bank to keep the average funding rate close to 12% until the next monetary policy meeting in July.

FOMC June 13-14 Meeting: Wonder Woman Brings Hope to Markets

June 15, 2017
In a widely anticipated move, for a third consecutive quarter, the FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate 25bp to 1.25%, as the labor market continued to tighten in the Committee’s eyes despite some slowing job gains over the past months

China | Economic moderation continues

June 14, 2017
After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain

June 14, 2017
Budget balances and public debt in Spain showed clear signs of unsustainability between 2009 and 2011. Despite the fiscal consolidation implemented since then, the increase in public debt has also considerable costs in terms of GDP, employment and private investment.

The use of ICT in European households: a comparative study

June 14, 2017
The use of ICT at home has spread extensively throughout Europe, albeit with differing intensity in each country. Based on Eurostat data, this observatory outlines the importance of computer use, of the internet and its ends during the recent recession, comparing European countries.

CMU Mid-Term Review Action Plan

June 13, 2017
On June 8 the European Commission published the Mid Term Review (MTR) Action Plan for a Capital Markets Union. This MTR takes stock of what has already been done and analyses future challenges, as the Brexit. It includes a set of new priorities and specific actions to achieve in order to complete the CMU in 2019.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. June 2017

June 13, 2017
The value generated by construction companies rose 3.8% in the first quarter. Companies moderate their use of financing due to their perception of less favourable terms in its cost. New tool for analysing personal lending conditions

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