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Strengthening the European System of Financial Supervision

October 16, 2017
The European financial supervision system is undergoing significant changes, stemming from the two major European projects underway - the Banking Union and the Capital Markets Union - and the UK’s exit from the European Union in the wake of the Brexit vote.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: the state of the housing market

October 14, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 16, 2017. Special topic: the state of the housing market

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 13 October 2017

October 13, 2017
Highlights: FSB issued a report on interest rate benchmarks. EC published a communication on the finalization of the Banking Union, and the first review of the SSM. EBA issued consultation on resolution plan reporting and issued opinion on Brexit relocations. Finally, the US Treasury published the second report on financial regulation.

China Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

October 13, 2017
China's economy showed signs of moderation in the third quarter due to a number of policy initiatives .To reflect the strong 1H growth and mitigated risks, we raise our 2017 growth forecast to 6.7%. Looking ahead, the dynamic of China’s economy will highly depend on the authorities’ attitudes towards the balance between pursuing growth and maintaining financial stability.

U.S. | Blockchain: The Road to Utopia

October 12, 2017
Non-financial blockchain applications are growing exponentially. Transaction costs will decline considerably, thereby impacting the role of intermediaries. The blockchain is expected to set the basis for better economic, social and political systems

Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

October 11, 2017
We continue to expect the Brazilian economy to grow by 0.6% this year and by 1.5% in the next one. While recent data suggest that the recovery could be somewhat stronger than expected, the fiscal situation and political noise prevent further optimism about growth.

Turkey: Credit Shock & the Economy

October 10, 2017
Since the implementation of the Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) last March, it has provided some extra GDP growth through both the increase in supply and demand of credit, but it will also have side effects. In this watch, we use a Sign Restrictions SVAR model to disentangle the effects of the KGF on the economy from both supply and demand of credit.

Mexico | Bank deposits: slight recovery driven by demand deposits

October 10, 2017
In July 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank funding (demand + term) was 11.0%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, but 1.4 percentage points lower than the rate registered in July 2016

Financial Regulation Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2017

October 10, 2017
Future trends in European banking regulation. Global regulatory framework. CRD V: state of play. Banking Union: barriers and other issues. European initiatives on NPLs. Resolution: lessons learned. CCPs in the post-Brexit era. Fintech keeps climbing up the political agenda.

Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q

October 9, 2017
In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).

The IMF Summit and not losing at cards

October 9, 2017
Next week we will know the International Monetary Fund's diagnosis of the state of the economy at its weekly meeting with the World Bank, which also brings together governors from central banks, finance ministers and representatives from the financial sector and wider civil society from around the world.

Pensions, economic growth and welfare in advanced economies

October 9, 2017
In this presentation we analyse the effects of pension systems on growth and welfare, seeking an efficient balance between contributiveness, distortions, incentives, and equality and insurance against risks. PAYG systems should remain a fundamental part of the welfare state, using notional accounts and minimum pensions to reduce inequality and the risk of social exclusion.

NAFTA: beneficial for all three countries

October 9, 2017
A few days ago, we saw the conclusion of the third round – out of the seven initially agreed - of the renegotiation process of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a positive agreement for Mexico, the United States and Canada that, since it was signed in 1994, has led to trade between these countries almost quadrupling.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: employment, manufacturing, services, inflation and retail sales

October 7, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 9, 2017. Special topic: analysis of several recently published economic indicators

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 6 October 2017

October 6, 2017
Highlights: Spanish Council of Ministers approved Decree Law to facilitate firms’ mobility. ECB issued a consultation on its NPLs guidelines, and issued an opinion on proposed regulation for CCPs supervision and authorization. BCBS issued a statement on NSFR and derivative liabilities treatment. Finally, EBA and ESMA published their corresponding workplans for 2018.